Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors
Monday, November 9, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena
The Raptors are 3.5-point favorites over the Grizzlies with a total of 230.5, and my play is Memphis +3.5.
How fast does a 6-0 start get forgotten? About three games, apparently. Memphis lost to New Orleans in overtime, dropped a close one to Indiana, then got embarrassed 128-97 by Oklahoma City on Friday. Now the market has Toronto, which might be missing its two main ball handlers, laying points. I’ll take the team that’s been better all year and is getting a field goal and a hook.
The slide is louder than it is real
Strip out the noise and Memphis is still a good basketball team. The Grizzlies are plus-6.1 per 100 possessions on the season, per Basketball Reference, against a schedule that grades out slightly above average. Toronto is plus-5.4, but it has done it against a softer-than-average schedule. Adjust for opponents and Basketball Reference’s Simple Rating System has Memphis at 6.94 and Toronto at 1.39. That’s a five-and-a-half-point gap on a neutral floor, and home court doesn’t cover all of it.
The Grizzlies are also 4-0 on the road, and the OKC game looks a lot like one bad shooting night. Memphis came in leading the NBA in three-point percentage and went 10-for-45 from deep, per the team’s recap. That’s not who they are. Ty Jerome is scoring 26.6 points a night and has been their best player. When the starting five of Jerome, Jaylen Wells, Cedric Coward, Cameron Boozer and Zach Edey plays together, it’s been plus-11.0, according to SI’s Grizzlies site.
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Toronto’s engine room is in the trainer’s room
Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley are both questionable after missing Friday’s win in Milwaukee. Barnes is listed with a left groin strain, Quickley with right hamstring tightness, and both were limited in Sunday’s practice, according to Sportsnet. Those are the two guys who run Toronto’s offense. Barnes is putting up 23.5 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists. Kawhi Leonard is still out with his knee, and an update isn’t expected until Tuesday.
Even if Barnes and Quickley play, you’re probably getting versions who are managing soft-tissue injuries, and Toronto is just back from a four-game road trip that included a 19-point loss in Denver. If either one sits, this number looks too high. If both sit, it looks silly.
Toronto does have one weapon that could hurt Memphis. The Raptors are averaging 11.6 steals a game, and the Grizzlies cough it up 16.7 times a night. Oklahoma City forced 18 turnovers and turned them into 30 points on Friday, so Memphis has to take care of the ball.
Why I could be wrong
Boozer is shooting just .339 from the field as a rookie, and SI notes Memphis has had a better net rating with him on the bench. If he keeps forcing it, the offense stalls. Edey is still playing under 21 minutes a night, and SI’s numbers show the defense gives up 15.1 more points per 100 when he sits. Memphis is also without Scotty Pippen Jr. and Isaiah Stewart. And if Barnes and Quickley both play at full speed, Toronto’s home crowd and ball pressure could make this a long night for a team still trying to snap out of a funk.
Projected score: Grizzlies 117, Raptors 115
The Pick: Grizzlies +3.5
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