San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Monday, November 9, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Mortgage Matchup Center
The Spurs are 9.5-point road favorites at most books, with the total at 228.5. My play is Spurs -9.5.
Victor Wembanyama is averaging 37 points over his last three games, and he’s doing it on 60/40/80 shooting, per Pounding The Rock. Phoenix gets him without its starting center. Good luck with that.
The streak isn’t a fluke. San Antonio dropped its first two games to Oklahoma City and Houston and hasn’t lost since. That’s eight straight, including a 4-0 mark on the road, and the last stop was a 125-103 dismantling of Portland on Saturday where Wembanyama scored 29 on 9-of-13 shooting in just 24 minutes, per the AP. The Spurs own the second-best net rating in the league at plus-10.3 per 100 possessions, according to Basketball Reference. In plain English, they outscore people by double digits over a full game and they do it on both ends.
The supporting cast is the scary part. Dylan Harper is putting up 18.1 points a night, Stephon Castle fills every column at 15.3 points, 5.9 boards and 5.0 assists, and De’Aaron Fox is running the offense at 5.9 dimes. Wembanyama leads the NBA at 3.9 blocks a game, which means every Suns drive ends with a very tall question mark.
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Phoenix traded away its glue. The Suns sent Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale to Charlotte for Miles Bridges, and Pounding The Rock notes the defense has felt it. Bridges is producing (16.9 points, 8.1 boards), but Phoenix sits 27th in defensive rating, giving up 120.2 points per 100 trips. Now take away Mark Williams, who’s out with a shoulder injury and listed by ESPN as sidelined until February, and the paint is wide open for the best big man in the building.
Devin Booker is still Devin Booker at 25.3 points a night, and Dillon Brooks will talk enough trash for two teams. The two-game win streak is real, but it came against Orlando and a 102-99 grinder with Houston. Before that, the Suns lost five of six, and they’re 2-6 against the spread.
Why I could be wrong. The Spurs aren’t a great cover team yet, sitting 4-6 against the number, and they nearly coughed up a game to Dallas when they shot 5-of-36 from deep. A cold night from three could keep Phoenix hanging around. Devin Vassell is questionable with a lower-body injury and Tobias Harris is out, so the rotation is thinner than usual. And if Booker gets hot in front of his home crowd, 9.5 is a lot of real estate. I’d still lay it up to -10.
Projected score: Spurs 120, Suns 105
The Pick: Spurs -9.5
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