GS Warriors vs. SA Spurs Pick
Golden State Warriors (47-21 SU, 28-39-1 ATS) vs. San Antonio Spurs (41-29 SU, 39-30-1 ATS)
When: Monday, March 18, 2019 – 8 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
By: Matt Lowry, NBA Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: GS -3 / SA +3 (MyBookie Sportsbook)
Total: O/U 225.5
Last Time Out: Golden State beat Oklahoma City 110-88; San Antonio beat Portland 108-103
Scouting the Spurs:
The Spurs come into this game riding an impressive 7-game winning streak. People were starting to speculate if we were going to have a playoff without San Antonio, but because of their recent success, they are looking like a lock. Now the Spurs need to focus on catching a top 4 seed, like the Trail Blazers, who they just beat head to head, so they can clinch home court advantage. Of course, being the Spurs, they are 28-7 at home this season, so earning a top 4 seed could be vital to their success in this years’ playoffs.
Scouting the Warriors:
The Warriors are coming off two major wins over Houston and Oklahoma City. Both these games came after an embarrassing loss to Phoenix, so whatever was said in the locker room really allowed the Warriors to play on another level. The even crazier part was Kevin Durant was out for these two wins. Most people thought Golden State would have no chance against Harden and the Rockets or Westbrook and the Thunder, especially without one of their best players, but once again the Warriors proved the doubters wrong and because of that, still hold a slim 1-game advantage over the Denver Nuggets for the number 1-seed in the Western Conference.
College Basketball Pick: Prairie View A&M vs. Fairleigh Dickinson
Head to Head:
These teams have split their two meetings this season, with the home team winning each matchup. In fact, the home team is 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings, and 4-0 in the last 4 dating back to 2018.
Betting Trends to Consider:
As mentioned, the Spurs are an amazing home team and therefore after a win by single digits, they are 6-2 at home in the game that follows. However, against the spread, the Spurs are just 3-5 at home after a small margin victory. As for the Warriors, they are one of the NBA’s worst when it comes to covering the spread. They may have covered two in a row as underdogs, but in the last 10 games they are 4-6 against the spread. Also, looking at both teams’ schedules, the under has surprisingly been the way to go as of late. The Warriors have seen the under go 9-1 in their last 10 and 7-0 in their last 7. For the Spurs, the under has gone 8-2 in their last 10 and 3-0 in their last 3.
Golden State will Cover if:
They play with the same intensity as they did when they were underdogs. The Warriors are back to opening as the favorite in this game, but that does not mean they should let their foot off the gas. Kevin Durant has been listed as probable in this matchup and his potential return should only help the Warriors in the scoring department. One concern however, is the health of DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins is listed as questionable and it is unclear if he will be ready to go against the Spurs because he is dealing with ankle soreness. Cousins was a huge lift to this Warriors team over the last two games and provided a total of 39 points. This was really a difference maker, especially in the game against Houston when Cousins was able to effectively shut down Clint Capela. Even if Cousins is ruled out, the return of Durant could still be enough to help the Warriors win this game, but if both are ruled out the Warriors may be in for a tough time.
San Antonio will Cover if:
Have another balanced scoring night. The Spurs have never been known for their flashiness or high-powered offense. The Spurs are known for their offensive efficiency and getting everyone involved on the team. In their past game against the Trail Blazers, the Spurs saw 7-players score in double-digits. Only 2 players that got into the game scored less than 10 and they scored 8 and 7 points respectively. Now facing the Warriors, it will of course be a monumental task, but if the Spurs score at the rate they did against Portland, they will give the Warriors a real fight and can keep this game very close.
Matt’s Pick to Cover the Spread:
It is always so hard to pick against the Warriors, especially because they have the tendency of going off even when some of their best players are sidelined with injuries. MyBookie has the Warriors as a 3-point favorite and the total set at 225.5. The Spurs are just too good of a home team to pick against and with Durant and Cousins both possibly being held out, the Spurs will continue their winning streak to move up in the standings.
Matt’s NBA Pick: San Antonio Spurs +3