Heat vs. Clippers Analysis & Pick ATS 1/2/23

by | Jan 2, 2023 | nba

Miami Heat (19-18 SU, 14-22-1 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (21-17 SU, 20-17-1 ATS)
When: Monday, January 2nd, 10:30 PM (ET)
Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles
TV: BSSU

Point Spread: MIA +4.5/ LAC -4.5
Total: 219.0
Money Line: Miami Heat +152/ -187

Notable Injuries

Heat

  • Jimmy Butler (Probable) Injury Management
  • Dewayne Dedmon (Out) Foot
  • Udonis Haslem (Questionable) Achilles
  • Duncan Robinson (Questionable) Hamstring
  • Gabe Vincent (Questionable) Knee
  • Caleb Martin (Questionable) Quad
  • Ömer Yurtseven (Out) Ankle
  • Nikola Jovic (Out) Back

Clippers

  • Nicolas Batum (Questionable) Ankle

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 19-18 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 8-10 and a win percentage of 44%. Currently, the team is 7th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 14-22-1 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 3-2 in their past five games and 3-2 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.

After their win against the Jazz, Miami will be looking to continue their momentum. Bam Adebayo had a big game, scoring 32 points to help lead the team to victory. As 4-point underdogs on the spread, the Heat was able to come away with an ATS win

Heading into the game, Los Angeles is 21-17 overall. When playing at home, Los Angeles has a mark of 11-7 and a win percentage of 61%. Currently, the team is 5th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 20-17-1 vs. the spread. The Clippers need a win in today’s matchup vs. Miami to avoid their 3rd straight loss.

In their last game, Los Angeles was defeated by the Pacers with a score of 131-130. Despite Paul George scoring 45 points, the team was unable to come out on top. Going into the game, the Clippers were 2 point favorites.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Heat picked up a 115-110 win over the Clippers. However, heading into the game, Miami was favored to win by 6.5 points, giving the Clippers an ATS victory. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. Through the last five matchups between the teams, Los Angeles has an ATS mark of 4-1. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 1 point per game separates the teams. The over-under record in these same games is 5-0, with the teams combining for an average of 227 points per game.

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Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.0 points per game, which places them 30th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 97.4 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 23rd in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 36.6 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

As the Heat prepare for today’s game, Bam Adebayo is their leading scorer with an average of 21.2 points per game. This season, Adebayo has a field goal percentage of 53.6%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Tyler Herro, who is averaging 21 points per game.

This season, Los Angeles is averaging just 109.7 points per game, which places them 28th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA, at just 98.1 possessions per game. Los Angeles’ offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 7th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.5%. Defensively, the Clippers have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 108.39 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.31%.

Coming into today’s game, Paul George is the leading scorer for Los Angeles at 24.4 points per game. This season, George has a field goal percentage of 45.7%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Marcus Morris Sr. at 13.4 points per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The Heat are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS win.
  • The Heat are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight-up win.
  • The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Miami Heat have been playing better basketball over the past week or so. The Clippers are playing their first game back after a long road trip, and with this happening around the New Year, it screams distraction and coming out flat. I’m increasing my bet size and making the Heat my best bet of the night!