Kings vs. Mavericks: NBA Betting Preview & Joe’s Pick

Sacramento Kings (26-26 SU, 20-31 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (28-25 SU, 26-25 ATS)

When: Monday, February 10th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Sac +1/Dal -1

Total: 237.5

Money Line: Sacramento Kings -103/-116

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Notable Injuries

Kings

• No Injuries Reported

Mavericks

• Anthony Davis (Out) Adductor
• Dwight Powell (Out) Hip
• Dante Exum (Questionable) Achilles
• P.J. Washington (Questionable) Ankle
• Caleb Martin (Out) Hip
• Max Christie (Questionable) Shoulder
• Dereck Lively II (Out) Ankle

At 8:30 ET, the Sacramento Kings (+1) will travel to take on the Dallas Mavericks (-1) in a Western Conference matchup. The Kings are 26-26 and 9th in the West, while the Mavericks are 28-25 and 8th in the West. Sacramento is -103 on the moneyline, while Dallas is -116. The over/under line for this game is 237.5.

This game will be played at American Airlines Center in Dallas and can be seen on NBCS.

Recent Form

The Kings evened their season record at 26-26 with a 123-118 win over the Pelicans on Saturday. Sacramento was favored by 8 points but didn’t cover the spread, winning by 5. The game’s total points of 241 narrowly exceeded the over/under line of 239.5.

After a 13-0 run by the Pelicans early on, Sacramento turned things around with a dominant 3rd quarter, outscoring New Orleans 45-22. They entered the 4th quarter leading 99-87 but couldn’t extend their lead enough to cover the spread.

The Mavericks improved to 28-25 on the season with a 116-105 win over the Rockets on Saturday. Playing at home, Dallas entered the game as 3-point favorites and covered the spread with the 11-point victory. The total score of 221 points fell short of the 227.5-point over/under line.

Dallas jumped out to a 33-20 lead after the 1st quarter and extended their lead by winning the 2nd quarter 32-28. Houston made a push in the 3rd quarter, outscoring the Mavericks 33-24, but Dallas held off the Rockets in the 4th, winning the quarter 27-24.

The Historicals

Through the last five matchups between the teams, Sacramento has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 2 points per game separates the teams. In these contests, they averaged a combined 224 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 0-5.

Analysis

Domantas Sabonis led the Kings with 27 points and 16 rebounds in their win over the Pelicans, shooting 55.6% from the field. Zach LaVine added 22 points, with 10 coming in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, while Keegan Murray contributed 19 points and eight rebounds.

The Kings shot 47.3% from the field but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 26.8% of their threes, making 11 in total. Malik Monk scored 10 of his 13 points in the 3rd quarter, and Keon Ellis also added 13 points, with five coming in the 4th.

Defensively, the Kings struggled in the 1st and 2nd quarters, allowing 31 and 34 points, respectively. However, they tightened up in the 3rd, giving up just 22 points, which helped them secure the win despite allowing 31 points in the 4th. Overall, they gave up 118 points on 47% shooting from the Pelicans.

From beyond the arc, the Kings allowed 14 threes on 38% shooting. They also sent the Pelicans to the line 25 times, where they hit 18 free throws. Sacramento controlled the boards, allowing just five offensive rebounds, and added 10 steals and seven blocks defensively.

Anthony Davis led the Mavericks to a win over the Rockets with 26 points and 16 rebounds, scoring 14 of his points in the 1st quarter. Max Christie added 23 points, including 10 in the 4th quarter.

Dallas hit 12 threes at a 52.2% rate, with Naji Marshall connecting on two threes and finishing with 16 points. Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson each contributed 13 points.

The Mavericks’ defense held the Rockets to 105 points on Saturday, limiting them to 20 points in the 1st quarter and 24 in the 4th. Dallas allowed 33 points in the 3rd quarter but still managed to secure the win.

Overall, the Mavericks held the Rockets to 40% shooting, including just 28% from three-point range, where Houston made only eight threes. Dallas also recorded 18 blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Sacramento has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 109 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• Dallas has a 1-2 record in their last three home games. In this stretch, they averaged 114 points per game while allowing 127. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Kings have a straight-up record of 1-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-4.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Mavericks have gone 4-5-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 6-4.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Anthony Davis was off to a stellar debut for the Mavs this weekend before he was bitten by the injury bug yet again. Davis isn’t the only one on the injury report, as Dallas has several key players already out or questionable. I’m taking the Kings on the money line.