Knicks vs. Bucks Spread Pick & Prop Best Bet

by | Nov 5, 2021 | nba

New York Knicks (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)vs. Milwaukee Bucks (4-4 SU, 4-4ATS)

When: Friday November 05 2021, 07:30 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum: Milwaukee, Wisconsin

TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin

Point Spread: NYK 5.0/MIL -5.0 (Opened at MIL -4.5)

Total: 217.5 (Opened at 217.5)

Money Line: New York 160/Milwaukee -195

Power Rating: MIL -8

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Probable Starting Lineups

Knicks: PG Kemba Walker, SG Evan Fournier, SF RJ Barrett, PF Julius Randle, C Mitchell Robinson

Bucks: PG Jrue Holiday, SG Grayson Allen, SF Pat Connaughton, PF Thanasis Antetokounmpo, C Giannis Antetokounmpo

Key Injuries

Knicks
No Reported Injuries

Bucks
Donte DiVincenzo: foot (OUT) Jrue Holiday: ankle (OUT) Brook Lopez: back (OUT) Khris Middleton: illness (OUT)

Recent Form

The New York Knicks come into tonight’s game with two straight losses. Despite this recent skid, they have an overall record of 5-3. This mark has come while playing the 26th toughest schedule.

So far, the team has a plus-minus rating of 4.8 points per game when taking to the road. Overall, New York is the 7th best team in the NBA with a point differential of 4.8 points per game.

So far, bettors have yet to find an edge when wagering on the Knicks. On the season, they have covered the spread in 50% of their contests. Their plus-minus against the spread has been -2 points per game.

Offensively, Julius Randle is the team’s leading scorer. So far, he is averaging 20.6 points per game. Evan Fournier has been New York’s best three-point shooter. In his first season with the team, Fournier has knocked down 3.25 shots from downtown per game.

Randle is also the team’s leading rebounder, grabbing 11.25 boards per game.

The Milwaukee Bucks are off to a sluggish start to the season with a record of 4-4. So far, they are not taking advantage of playing at home, going 1-3. Their plus-minus at the Fiserv Forum is -.8 points per game.

Through eight games, Milwaukee has played the 10th toughest schedule in the NBA. Their overall point differential is +5.7 points per game.

On the season, the Bucks have been a 50/50 bet to cover the spread. Against the spread, they have a negative plus-minus rating at -2.

To no one’s surprise, Giannis Antetokounpmo is the team’s leading scorer, averaging 27.38 points per game. The Finals MVP is also Milwaukee’s best rebounder, hauling in 10.75 boards per game.

Grayson Allen has been the most productive shooter from long range, averaging 3.12 made three-pointers per game.

An Eye On Pace

A key aspect of this game to watch will be how the Bucks respond to the Knicks ‘ slow style of play. On average, when playing slow-paced teams, the Bucks win 57% of their games.

On the opposite end, when the Knicks play fast-paced teams, they hold opponents to 5 possessions below the league average. New York wins these games 73% of the time.

Who Has The Defensive Edge?

In terms of offensive efficiency, the Bucks are the superior unit. When the Knicks face the challenge of stopping good offensive units, these teams average 3 points above expectation. New York wins at a rate of 43% with a MOV of -3 points per game.

Although the Knicks are one of the least efficient offensive teams in the NBA, Milwaukee tends to play down to such competition, giving up 3 points per game above the league average.

Offensively, the Bucks should not be bothered by New York’s top 10 defense, as they outscore the league average by 9 points per game against such competition.

The Knicks also play well vs. good defenses, scoring 4 points per game above expectation. However, they win just 38% of the time.

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The Historicals

Last season, the Bucks and Knicks met up for three games, with New York winning the series 2-1. Combined, Milwaukee actually outscored New York 340-333. However, most of this differential came because of their 134-101 victory in game 2.

How the Public is Betting the Knicks vs. Bucks

54% are betting the Knicks against the spread.

58% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 217.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

Knicks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games.
Knicks are 1-4-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.
The Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games as a favorite.
Knicks are 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

I see the Knicks combing into this game, looking to prove they belong among the top teams in the NBA. The Bucks are facing injuries and are dealing with Khris Middleton’s absence for COVID 19.

I recommend taking the Knicks to cover the current spread of +5. If this number drops down to +3, I would instead take Milwaukee.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

My favorite player prop bet is to take Evan Fournier to surpass his over-under line of 13.5. The Bucks defense tends to give up open three-pointers. I can easily see Fournier knocking down 3+ three-pointers on his way to a big game. Question: Where do you bet on NBA games? Have you ever checked out Bovada Sportsbook? They offer live lines during the whole game (not just commercials), can get your credit card to work for deposits, offer rebates on ALL your bets; win, lose or draw AND offer the fastest payouts! Check’em out!