Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors Pick 2/2/19
Los Angeles Lakers (27-25 SU, 22-28-2 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (36-15 SU, 23-27-1 ATS)
When: Saturday, February 2nd, 2019 – 8:30 PM ET
Where: Oracle Arena– Oakland, CA
Point Spread: LAL +11 / GS -11 (WagerWeb)
Power Rankings: Golden State -17
Takeaways from Los Angeles and Golden State’s Most Recent Games
The Lakers come into this contest off a thrilling 123-120 win in overtime against their cross-city rivals, the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday. The Lakers welcomed back the game’s favorite son LeBron James to the line-up, and he produced a double-double to enable the Lakers to get the win and cover as a two-point favorite.
The Warriors enter in off a home upset they suffered at the hands of those feisty Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday. Closing as an eight-point favorite, the Warriors were without Shooting Guard Klay Thompson, and the Sixers went onto win 113-104 and end Golden State’s 11-game winning streak.
How the Public is Betting the Los Angeles and Golden State Game
At the present moment, 52% of the consensus has taken a liking to the points here with the visiting Lakers. Despite this, the money has seemed to be pouring in on the opposite direction as we have seen the line ascend by 1.5 points from its opener where the Warriors were spotting 9.5 points initially.
This series had been dominated by the Warriors as they won eight consecutive meetings heading into their Christmas Day collision. Then LeBron James went up to Oakland and dominated the Warriors on the floor in a 127-101 rout despite Los Angeles closing as a nine-point underdog. The Warriors would retaliate in LA when the Lakers did not have The King available on January 21st and defeat them by a score of 130-111 to cover easily as a 13-point favorite.
Warriors Shooting-Guard Klay Thompson remains a question mark as he battles an illness that caused him to sit out Golden State’s last outing. On the Los Angeles side of things, both Point Guards Rajon Rondo and Lonzo Ball are battling ankle injuries. Rondo remains questionable while Ball will be out until early March.
Rest Advantages and Concerns
The Lakers are on their first true road game of a five-game itinerary that will take them to the East Coast when they wrap up in Atlanta on February 12th. This will not be a daunting journey for the Lakers as they are not covering a great distance as they head north to Oakland to play this game. Golden State is on the second game of a home-stand that extends to next Wednesday when they will play a road game in Phoenix. From a rest perspective, both teams equal on the same amount of days off.
Can A Seasoned Lakers Test Golden State’s Depth?
As we will see in many matches the Warriors participate in, Golden State owns an edge in virtually every major statistical category against the Lakers. However, the Lakers hold the deeper bench. When comparing the two units, Los Angeles’ bench produces 36.4 points per game compared to Golden State’s depth which procures just 30.2 points per contest. This 6.2-point swing can become pivotal in creating either a backdoor cover or to keep the game competitive should the Warriors need to sub out any of their big four that we know will be playing this game for sure: Curry, Durant, Green, and Cousins.
Will The Champs’ Ignite Their Offense To Rebound Big?
The Warriors remain the best in the NBA when it comes to scoring as they average an incredible 118.8 points per game. In addition to their scoring proficiency, the Warriors are also the league’s best in shooting efficiency as they hit 49% of their field goals. Golden State also sits third in the league in the free-throw percentage at 81.9%. Once again, the Warriors have a good match-up here against a Los Angeles team that sits 29th in the league in terms of opponent free-throw percentage at 78%. Golden State will be able to scoff up some free points, and they also will likely be able to generate some scoring against a 22nd ranked Lakers defense that gives up 112.1 points per game.
The most noteworthy trend here is the narrative that the Lakers are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings that have taken place in Oakland. On the note of location playing an influencing factor, the Under is also 5-2 ATS in the previous seven clashes that have taken place on Golden State’s court.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Golden State -11
The variables set up the Warriors to allow takers to get them at a bargain price. Many books would argue that is the case and that Golden State is extremely undervalued. Given their propensity to be overvalued, this is the optimal time to take advantage of the two-time defending champions being short-sold on their own court where they are generally tough to beat. Sure, many will argue that one should not give LeBron James this many points and that one should consider what he and the Lakers were able to do the last time they squared off with the Warriors in this very building. However, that kind of content sets up a zig-zag position by the market where the line is a direct reaction of that sentiment (thus why the Warriors are short-priced) and makes the Lakers look too easy here. We urge bettors not to take the bait and go the other way to play on the value and get the better team at a discount price. The Warriors will rebound and show the league why they are the dynasty that they are. Golden State wins big with style points.