Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Pick & Predictions

by | Last updated May 26, 2024 | nba

Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26 SU, 48-46 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 57-39 ATS)

When: Sunday, May 26th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas


Point Spread: Min +2.5/Dal -2.5 (Bet it FREE by using code XPREDICT on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at XBet Sportsbook!)

Total: 207.5

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +114/-137

Notable Injuries


  • Mike Conley (Questionable) Soleus


  • Maxi Kleber (Out) Shoulder
  • Luka Doncic (Questionable) Knee/Ankle
  • Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

With a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals, the 5th-seeded Mavericks will host the 3rd-seeded Timberwolves at the American Airlines Center in Dallas on Sunday, May 26th, at 8:00 PM ET. The over/under is 207.5 points, and the Mavericks are favored by -2.5.

Despite being down by seven heading into the 4th quarter, the Mavericks pulled out a 109-108 win over the Timberwolves in the most recent game of this series. The Mavericks were 6-point underdogs heading into the game, but their win allowed them to cover the spread. The game also surpassed the over/under line of 207.5 points by 9.5 points.

Both teams shot 38.7% from three in the game, and each made 12 threes. Luka Doncic had a triple-double for the Mavericks with 32 points, 13 assists, and 10 rebounds. He also made five threes. Dallas was also led by Kyrie Irving’s 20 points. Naz Reid led the Timberwolves with 23 points and seven threes.

Recent Form

This season, Minnesota has gone 50-45 on the over/under, with an average O/U line of 219.3. The team’s games have averaged a combined 218.1 points per game.

Minnesota’s last two games have gone over the O/U line, and today’s line is 207.5. In their most recent game against the Mavericks, the teams combined for 217 points.

Against the spread, Minnesota is 48-46 for the season, including a 27-19 record on the road. In their last two road games, they have gone 0-2 ATS.

The Timberwolves are currently in 3rd place in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26. In non-conference games, they are 19-11 and 37-15 against other Western Conference teams.

In their last game vs. Dallas, Minnesota lost by a score of 109-108. The Timberwolves were favored by 6 points in that game. This season, they are 14-11 as underdogs and 16-9 ATS as underdogs.

The Mavericks are looking to extend their winning streak to five games today against the Timberwolves. In their last game, Dallas defeated Minnesota by a score of 109-108. The Mavericks were 6-point underdogs in that game.

This season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 44-52-0. The over has hit in each of their last three games, and the average combined scoring total in their games is 230.1 points.

Dallas has an ATS record of 57-39 this season, including a 24-23 mark at home. They have covered the spread in their last two games at home and are favored by 2.5 points today.

As the favorite, the Mavericks have a record of 43-16 this season, and they have gone 37-22 ATS as the favorite. On average, they have outscored their opponents by 6.7 points per game when favored.

In the Western Conference standings, the Mavericks are currently in 5th place with a record of 50-32. Within the Southwest Division, they are in 1st place.

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The Historicals

Although the Mavericks have the better ATS mark across the previous 5 head-head matchups at 4-1, the average scoring margin sits in favor of Minnesota, as they averaged 112 points per game while allowing 105. Over the course of these games, they averaged 217 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.


Minnesota’s offense is averaging 113 points per game this season, which is 20th in the league. They have been slightly better on the road, at 113.4 points per game compared to 111.3 at home. The Timberwolves are one of the NBA’s most efficient three-point shooting teams, as they have hit 38% of their looks from beyond the arc, which is the 3rd best mark in the league.

Anthony Edwards is averaging 20.2 points per game over his last five games to go along with 7 assists and 6.4 rebounds. Jaden McDaniels is averaging 15.8 points per game in his last five games while shooting 58% from the field. Mike Conley is questionable for the Timberwolves and is averaging 2.4 made threes per game on a three-point shooting percentage of 44.2%.

Coming into tonight’s game, the Minnesota Timberwolves are the top-ranked defense in the NBA, allowing just 105.8 points per game. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 97.8 points per contest.

One reason for their success has been their ability to protect the paint. On the season, they are first in the league in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 50.9%. Over their last five games, that number has dropped to 52.4%.

Minnesota has also been effective at defending the three-point line, ranking 3rd in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.6%. In terms of made threes allowed per game, they are also 3rd in the league at 11.2.

Dallas comes into the game as the NBA’s 9th-ranked scoring offense, at 117.9 points per game. They have been slightly better than that at home this season, averaging 117.2 points per contest. The Mavericks are also 4th in both three-point attempts and makes this season, but their three-point shooting percentage is just 14th in the league.

Luka Doncic is averaging 28.6 points per game over his last five games to go along with 10.4 assists and 9.6 rebounds. This season, he is averaging 33.9 points per game. Kyrie Irving’s season scoring average is 25.6 points per game, but he has averaged just 18.6 points in his last five games. For the season, Irving is averaging 3 threes per game, while Doncic is at 4.1.

So far this season, the Mavericks’ defense has been average, ranking 17th in points allowed per game at 113.9. At home, they have been giving up 113.6 points per game. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 5th in points allowed at 104.2.

One area where they have struggled is in forcing turnovers, as they rank 25th in steals per game. However, they have been solid at protecting the rim, ranking 12th in blocked shots.

Opposing teams have been able to shoot 47.0% from the field against the Mavericks this season, which is 13th in the league. Over their last five games, they have been even better, holding teams to just 42.4% shooting.

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Betting Trends

  • Minnesota has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 105 points per game while allowing 99. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
  • In their last three home games, Dallas has averaged 107 points per game while allowing 101. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
  • Minnesota has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 6-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Tonight is pretty much a must-win game for the Timberwolves if they are going to try and claw back into this series. However, they have to be concerned with how Anthony Edwards’ offensive play has been trending. If Edwards can’t improve his efficiency on the offensive end, the Timberwolves are in trouble. I like Dallas on the money line for game three. 

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