NBA Picks: Nuggets vs. Warriors Game 3

by | Last updated Apr 21, 2022 | nba

Golden State Warriors (55-29 SU, 43-37-4 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (48-36 SU, 37-47-0 ATS)

When: Thursday April 21 2022, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado


Point Spread: GSW -2.5/DEN +2.5 (Opened DEN +2.5 at BetNow – Use bonus code PREDICTEM and they’ll give you a 100% real cash bonus up to $500!)

Total: 224 (Opened at 224.5)

Money Line: Golden State -125/Denver +105

Power Rating: GSW -3

Probable Starting Lineups

Golden State Warriors PG Jordan Poole, SG Klay Thompson, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney

Denver Nuggets PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Jeff Green, PF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors
Andre Iguodala: Neck (PROBABLE)
James Wiseman: Knee (OUT)

Denver Nuggets
Austin Rivers: Back (QUESTIONABLE)
Michael Porter Jr.: Back (OUT)
Jamal Murray: Knee (OUT)

The Denver Nuggets host the Golden State Warriors in a Western Conference-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 10:00 PM ET at the Ball Arena.

Recent Form

The Golden State Warriors come into this game with an overall record of 53-29, placing them 3rd in the Western Conference. So far, Golden State is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 22-19. Over their last five games, the Warriors have played well, picking up 5 wins. During this stretch, Golden State is averaging 121.0 points per game, 10.0 points more than their season average of 111.3. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 112.0 points per contest. The Warriors have been picking up wins while holding opponents to an average of 105.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 105.5. In the Golden State Warriors’ most recent game, Golden State took down Denver by a score of 126-106

The Denver Nuggets come into this game with an overall record of 48-34, placing them 6th in the Western Conference. So far, Denver is above .500 at home, holding a record of 23-18. Over the Nuggets’ last five games, they have picked up just 1 win. In this stretch, Denver’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 115.0 points per game. Combined, the Nuggets’ last five opponents are giving up 110.0 points per contest. A key reason for the Nuggets’ recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 124.0 points over their last five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 110.8. In the Denver Nuggets’ most recent game, the team fell to Golden State by a score of 126-106.


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Individual Player Analysis

As Golden State travels to take on the Denver Nuggets, the Warriors’ leading scorer is Stephen Curry. Through 64 games, Curry is averaging 25 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 45.0% of his games. Against the Nuggets, Curry will need to be on top of his game as Denver is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 38.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring, averaging 27 points across his 75 games. Throughout the season, Jokic has outscored his season average in 41.0% of his outings. However, if he hopes to add to this total, Jokic will need to do so against a Warriors defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 46.77%. This figure is good for a rank of 9th in the league.

Matchup Analysis

The Nuggets come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 111.2 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Denver is winning at a rate of 61%. These wins are coming by an average margin of 13.0 points. On the other side, the Warriors hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 40 games as the better defensive team, picking up 21 wins.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets have met up for 6 games. In their last meeting, Golden State picked up a 126-106 win.

How the Public is Betting the Warriors vs Nuggets

67% are betting the Warriors against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 224.5

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
  • Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Golden State Warriors head into game 3 of this series, hoping to take a commanding 3-0 lead. On the other side, the Nuggets are hoping that playing at home will help them fight their way back into the series. If they hope to pick up the win, they will need to figure out a way to limit the Warriors’ effectiveness from outside. In game 2, Golden State hit 42.5% of their three-point shots, led by Jordan Poole and Stephen Curry, who each knocked down 5 shots from deep. Unfortunately for Denver, it appears that the Warriors are putting everything together at the right time. Even with Curry coming off the bench, Golden State is firing on all cylinders. As the 1.5-point road favorites, look for the Warriors to pick up the win and cover the spread. Bet your Warriors vs. Nuggets prediction and ALL your basketball bets for free this week by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit up to $500 at Betnow Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICTEM when signing up.)