NBA Picks: Phoenix at Oklahoma City Predictions | March 29

Phoenix Suns (43-30 SU, 30-42 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (50-22 SU, 42-30 ATS)

When: Friday, March 29th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: KSBI

Point Spread: Pho -2.5/OKC +2.5

Total: 226.5

Money Line: Phoenix Suns -133/+111

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Jusuf Nurkic (Questionable) Ankle
• Damion Lee (Out) Knee

Thunder

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Doubtful) Quad

The Thunder (-133) are 3rd in the Western Conference and 3rd in the Northwest Division. They are hosting the Suns (43-30), who are 7th in the Western Conference and 2nd in the Pacific Division. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.

KSBI is televising this Western Conference matchup. The Thunder are 2.5-point underdogs at home and the over/under line is 226.5.

Recent Form

The Suns are favored by 2.5 points today and have a record of 36-18 as the favorite this season. In games where they are favored, Phoenix has gone 22-31 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +5.4 points per game.

Phoenix’s O/U record for the season is 32-40-1, and the under has hit in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 230.8 points, which is higher than today’s line of 226.5.

In their last game, the Suns defeated the Nuggets by a score of 104-97. They were 5.5-point underdogs going into the game and have now won two straight games on the road.

Against Western Conference opponents, the Suns are 24-20 this season and are currently in 7th place in the West. In the Pacific Division, they are in 2nd place with a record of 43-30.

For the season, the Suns have an ATS record of 30-42, including a road ATS record of 16-20. Currently, they have covered the spread in two straight games on the road.

Today, the Thunder will look to end their 4-game ATS losing streak at home as 2.5-point underdogs against the Suns. So far this season, they have gone 22-14 ATS at home and 42-30 ATS overall.

Oklahoma City’s O/U record for the season is 38-33-1, and their games have averaged 233.6 points per game. In their last two games, the final score has gone over the O/U line.

Against the Western Conference, the Thunder are 32-16 compared to 18-6 against non-conference opponents. This has them in 3rd place in the West, just behind the Clippers and Lakers.

In their last game, the Thunder lost to the Rockets by a score of 132-126. The O/U line for that game was also 226.5, and OKC was favored by 4.5 points going into the game.

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Thunder have gone 3-2, but the Suns actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Phoenix has averaged 117 points per contest while allowing 114. Phoenix and Oklahoma City averaged a combined 231 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

The Suns have been one of the most efficient offenses in the league this season, ranking 4th in field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. They are also 4th in free throw attempts per game and 2nd in free throws made per game.

Phoenix is 10th in the NBA in scoring at 116.9 points per game. On the road, they are averaging 116.6 points per game compared to 117.1 at home.

When it comes to pace, the Suns are 15th in the league at 98.3 possessions per game. In terms of three-point shooting, they are 5th in the NBA at 38% but are just 26th in three-point attempts.

On the defensive side, Suns is currently hovering around the NBA’s average for points allowed, conceding an average of 113.9 points per game. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Suns are forcing 14.1 per game, which is 25th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 5th in blocked shots at 6.1 per game.

At home, the Thunder have been an excellent offensive team, averaging 122.8 points per game, which is 4th in the NBA. Overall, they are 3rd in scoring at 120.4 points per game. In terms of pace, they are 9th in the league at 99.8 possessions per game.

When it comes to shooting, the Thunder are 2nd in field goal percentage at 49%. They have been particularly efficient from three-point range, hitting 39% of their attempts, which is 2nd in the NBA. In terms of three-point attempts, they are 16th in the league.

So far this season, Oklahoma City has outscored the NBA scoring average in 70.8% of their games. In terms of assists, they are 13th in the league at 26.8 per game. On the offensive glass, they are 29th in the NBA.

So far, the Thunder’s defense is ranked 13th in the league at 113.2 points per contest. Oklahoma City’s defense is currently forcing 11.7 turnovers per game, which is 4th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 1st in blocked shots, with an average of 6.6 rejections per game.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Suns have a straight up record of 5-5 while going 4-6 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 114 points per game in these contests.
• Across their ten previous home games, Oklahoma City has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight up record in these matchups was 7-3 while averaging 117 points per game.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Thunder have a straight up record of 4-6. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.
• Phoenix has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Suns are catching a break in this one as they are looking to pick up as many wins as possible down the stretch, as they are in the thick of the race to avoid the play in tournament. And today, they are facing a Thunder squad without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Even though the Suns can be inconsistent, I see them taking care of business and covering the spread at -2.5.