NBA Preview: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat – Strategies & Predictions

Milwaukee Bucks (12-5 SU, 6-11 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (10-7 SU, 8-8 ATS)

When: Tuesday, November 28th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Mil -3/Mia +3

Total: 225

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -152/+126

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Khris Middleton (Questionable) Achilles
• Jae Crowder (Out) Groin

Heat

• Jimmy Butler (Questionable) Ankle
• Bam Adebayo (Probable) Hip
• Duncan Robinson (Probable) Thumb
• Haywood Highsmith (Questionable) Back
• Tyler Herro (Out) Ankle
• R.J. Hampton (Out) Knee
• Dru Smith (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Coming into today’s matchup, the Bucks is focused on adding to their two-game winning streak, with an overall record of 12-5. In road games, the Bucks have a 4-4 record this season, in contrast to their 8-1 record when playing at home.

Today, the Heat are entering the action with an overall record of 10-7 and have achieved a 3-0 record over their last three games. This season, when playing on the road, the Heat have a 6-6 record, while their record at home is 4-1.

The Historicals

Through the last 5 matchups between the teams, Miami has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just one point per game separates the teams. Milwaukee and Miami averaged a combined 239 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 5-0.

Analysis

The Bucks offense is coming off a game where they scored 108 points against the Trail Blazers. They posted a field goal percentage of 39.3% and connected on 14 threes. Giannis Antetokounmpo was the leading scorer for the Bucks, putting up 33 points. In addition, Damian Lillard contributed 31 points.

Facing Miami, the Bucks aim for a better defensive performance, given their current average of 117.5 points allowed per game (22nd).

Inside the arc, the Bucks defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 54.1% and 35.5% from three-point territory.

In their recent matchup, the Heat offense ended with 97 points against the Nets. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 43.7% and made 11 threes. The team’s top scorer is Bam Adebayo, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 22.7, while Jimmy Butler also carries a PPG average of 20.7 into the game.

Coming into today’s game, the Heat’s defense is giving up an average of 107.8 points per contest.

In terms of takeaways, the Heat are causing 12.6 turnovers per game, ranking 6th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 29th in rejections, averaging 3.3 blocked shots each game.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 3-0 while averaging 129 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 107 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Heat have a strong record vs the spread, going 3-2. Their straight-up mark in these contests is 2-3.
• Milwaukee has done well both straight up and vs. the spread when favored to win the game, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Even though the Bucks have struggled this season when facing quality opponents, I see them being too much to handle for an injury-riddled Heat squad. Right now, Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, but even if he is able to play, I don’t expect him to be at 100%. I like Milwaukee to cover at -3.