New Orleans Pelicans vs. Indiana Pacers Pick ATS | 2/28/24

New Orleans Pelicans (35-24 SU, 32-27 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (33-26 SU, 31-26 ATS)

When: Wednesday, February 28th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: NO +6/Ind -6

Total: 239.5

Money Line: New Orleans Pelicans +192/-238

Notable Injuries

Pelicans

• CJ McCollum (Questionable) Ankle
• Jose Alvarado (Out) Suspension
• Dyson Daniels (Out) Knee

Pacers

• Doug McDermott (Out) Calf
• Aaron Nesmith (Questionable) Ankle

At 7:30 ET, ESPN will televise a non-conference matchup between the Pacers (-238) and Pelicans (+192) from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Pacers are favored by 6 points and have a record of 33-26, which is good for 8th in the Eastern Conference. The Pelicans are 35-24 and sit 5th in the Western Conference.

With a total of 239.5, this game features two teams that are in the playoff picture. The Pacers (-238) are 3rd in the Central Division, while the Pelicans (+192) are leading the Southwest Division. This game will be played in Indiana, and the Pacers are favored by 6 points.

Recent Form

In their last game against the Knicks, the Pelicans won by a score of 115-92. The O/U line for that game was 214 points, and they were favored by 6.5 points. This improved their ATS record to 32-27 for the season.

For the season, the Pelicans have an O/U record of 27-32, and the under has hit in their last three games. Today’s O/U line is set at 239.5, which is higher than 55 of their previous games.

New Orleans has a record of 35-24, which is good for 5th place in the Western Conference. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 24-18 compared to 11-6 against the East.

As the underdog, the Pelicans have a scoring differential of -0.3 points per game. On the road, their ATS record is 16-14, and they have covered the spread in three straight games as the underdog.

In games against Western Conference teams, the Pacers have gone 8-11 compared to 25-15 against the East. Overall, they are 33-26 and are currently 8th in the Eastern Conference.

At home, the Pacers are 19-12 this season and have an average scoring margin of +5.2 points per game. On the road, their ATS record is 15-12, compared to 16-14 at home.

This season, Indiana has been favored in 28 of their 59 games and have a record of 17-11 in those games. As the favorite, they are 13-15 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +6.9 PPG.

Indiana’s most recent game was a 130-122 loss to the Raptors. The over/under line for that game was 246 points, and the Pacers were favored by 5.5 points going into the game.

Indiana’s O/U record for the season is also 33-26, and 39 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 239.5. On average, their games have scored 246 points.

The Historicals

Through the last 5 head-to-head matchups, neither team has gotten a leg up on the spread, each sitting at 2-2-1. In addition, the games have been competitive with an average of just 1 points per game separating the teams. A combined average of 223 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Pelicans are 14th in the league at 116.1 points per game. On the road, they are averaging 115.4 points per game. So far this season, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in 50.8% of their games.

Overall, the Pelicans have been an efficient offensive team, ranking 9th in field goal percentage at 48%. They are also 12th in true shooting percentage. In terms of pace, they are 19th in the league.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Pelicans are 9th in three-point percentage at 37%. However, they are just 23rd in three-point attempts. So far this season, they have made an average of 12.2 threes per game.

So far, the Pelicans defense is giving up 111.7 points per contest, which has them sitting 8th in the NBA. One thing to note, is they have given up more points than their season average in three straight matchups. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Pelicans are forcing 12.7 per game, which is 13th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 20th in blocked shots at 4.9 per game.

When it comes to scoring, the Pacers are the top-ranked team in the NBA, averaging 123.9 points per game. At home, they are even better, averaging 126.4 points per game.

Indiana’s offense is built on their ability to get to the rim, as they lead the league in two-point field goal percentage at 58%. Overall, they are shooting 50% from the field, which is also tops in the NBA.

So far this season, the Pacers have outscored the NBA scoring average in 71.2% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 2nd in the league at 101.8 possessions per game.

On defense, the Pacers come into the game ranked 28th in the league in points allowed at 122.1 per game. Over their last three games, the team is allowing 118.7 points per contest (30th). In their previous matchup vs. the Raptors, the Pacers’ defense struggled, giving up a field goal percentage of 55%, leading to 130 points.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, New Orleans has an ATS record of 5-5 while averaging 111 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
• In their last five games at home, the Pacers have a straight up record of 3-2 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 114 points per game in these contests.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Pelicans have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 3-0 in these scenarios.
• Over the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Pacers struggled vs the spread going just 2-3. However, they still had a straight up mark of 3-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Even though the Pelicans have the disadvantage of playing on back-to-back nights, the Pacers are one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. On one night, they could take down some of the top teams in the NBA, or they could lose to anyone, made evident by falling to Toronto at home on Monday night. I like the Pelicans at +6 in this one.