Nuggets vs. Lakers Odds, Trends, Predictions

by | Oct 30, 2022 | nba

Denver Nuggets (4-2 SU, 3-3-0 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (0-5 SU, 0-5-0
ATS)

When: Sunday, October 30th, 9:30 PM (ET)
Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles
TV: ALT

Point Spread: DEN -4.0/ LAL +4
Total: 220.5
Money Line: Denver Nuggets -165/ +137

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Questionable) Ankle
  • Davon Reed (Questionable) Personal
  • Collin Gillespie (Out) Lower Leg

Lakers

  • LeBron James (Probable) Foot
  • Dennis Schröder (Out) Thumb
  • Thomas Bryant (Out) Thumb
  • Juan Toscano-Anderson (Questionable) Ankle
  • Cole Swider (Out) Foot

Recent Form

So far, the Nuggets have put together an overall record of 4-2, while going 3-3-0 vs the
spread. Denver comes into the game having rattled off 2 straight wins. In these games, they have
an average scoring differential of 13.5 points.

The Nuggets will look to keep things rolling, as they previously beat the Jazz by a score of
117-101. Heading into the game, they were 8 point favorites on the spread, giving them an ATS
win. Denver played well enough in the second half to prevent the Jazz from making things
interesting down the stretch, as they led by 13 going into halftime. In the win, Bones Hyland led
the team in scoring with 26 points on a field goal percentage of 44.4%.

The Lakers come into today’s matchup with an overall record of 0-5. So far, the team has gone
0-5-0 against the spread. Los Angeles will take the court having lost 5 straight games. On
average, they have lost these games by 7.0 points per game.

Los Angeles is trying to bounce back from a 111-102 loss to the Timberwolves. Going into this
game, the team was 8 point underdogs on the spread, giving them an ATS loss. Going into halftime,
the teams were all tied at 52, before the Timberwolves went on to take control of the game in the
2nd half. Leading the team in scoring was LeBron James, as he contributed 28 points while hitting
41.7% of his shots.

The Historicals

Last season the Nuggets did a good job on the road in their meetings vs the Lakers, going 1-0.
This led to an overall series record of 2-1. In last year’s head-to-head meetings, the Nuggets
averaged 134.33 points per game vs Los Angeles, which was an increase over their season-long
average. On the other side, the Lakers also experienced an uptick in scoring during head-to-head
matchups, averaging 120.0 points per game vs Denver. The ATS record across the previous 5
head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Nuggets. In these matchups, Denver has averaged 120
points per game, while allowing 110. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under
mark of 3-2. Combined, they averaged 230 points in these games.

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Analysis

This season, the Denver offense is ranked 16th in the NBA in scoring at 114.8 points per game.
So far, the Nuggets are averaging 100.5 possessions per game, which places them below the NBA
average. Although the Nuggets have a current effective field goal percentage of 56.1%, their
below average pace of play is a key factor behind their mediocre scoring numbers.

Against the Lakers, the Nuggets will need a stronger defensive effort as they are ranked just
14th in points allowed.

One thing to watch will be if Nikola Jokic will be able to take advantage of his matchup vs
the Lakers. Last year, they were ranked just 21st in points allowed to centers.

This season, the Los Angeles offense has had their problems scoring the ball as they are a
below average unit at 102.2 points per game. In terms of pace, the Lakers are on the top units in
the NBA, averaging 105.2 possessions per game. However, they have not been able to pair this
up-tempo speed with overall scoring efficiency, as they are just 28th in made field goals per
game.

Against the Nuggets, the Lakers will need a stronger defensive effort as they are ranked just
28th in points allowed.

One thing to watch will be if LeBron James will be able to take advantage of his matchup vs
the Nuggets. Last year, they were ranked just 21st in points allowed to small-forwards.

Betting Trends

Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games. Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in
their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7
home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Lakers are 7-20 ATS in their last
27 Sunday games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

In the betting world, bad news oftentimes means good news! Oddsmakers know you’re listening
and will form a bias when bad news breaks. This in turn allows them to overinflate a line knowing
you’re going to fade the bad news. I’m betting the Lakers tonight!