Nuggets vs. Warriors Point Spread Bet for Jan 4, 2024

Denver Nuggets (24-11 SU, 16-18 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (16-17 SU, 15-17 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 4th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Den -2.5/GS +2.5

Total: 234.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -141/+117

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Reggie Jackson (Probable) Calf
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee

Warriors

• Draymond Green (Out) Suspension
• Gary Payton II (Out) Hamstring

Recent Form

As the Nuggets get ready to take on the Warriors, they are favored by 2.5-points and sit 3rd in the Western Conference on a record of 24-11. Denver will also be looking to pick up their 6th straight road win.

So far, the Nuggets have been the favorite in 32 of their 35 games and have a scoring margin of +6.1 points per game in those games. Overall, they have gone 23-9 as the favorite this season.

Against the spread, Denver is 7-11 on the road and 16-18 overall. The team has failed to cover the spread in two straight games as the underdog.

When looking at the over/under results, the Nuggets have had two straight games stay under the OU lines. Their average over/under line for the season has been 226, and their games have had an average of 224.9 points. Denver’s over/under record for the season is 12-22-1.

With a record of 16-17, the Warriors will look to pick up a win as 2.5-point underdogs at home. If they are able to pull off the upset, they will also move up in the Western Conference standings. Right now, Golden State is in 11th place and 5th in the Pacific Division.

Against the spread, the Warriors have been better on the road than at home this season, going 9-6 compared to 6-11 at home. When they have been the underdog, Golden State has gone 8-4 ATS, including two straight covers.

So far, the over/under record in Golden State’s games is 18-14-1. When playing games with higher over/under lines than 234.5, the Warriors are 4-5 compared to 13-9-1 when the OU lines have been lower.

This season, the Warriors have been the underdog in 13 of their 33 games. On average, they are losing these games by 1.5 points per contest. The team’s overall scoring margin for the season is right at 0, and their straight-up road record is currently 9th in the West at 6-9.

The Historicals

Over the last five head to head meetings, the Nuggets have averaged 120 points per game compared to 113 for Golden State. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Denver. Denver and Golden State averaged a combined 233 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

In their last game, the Nuggets scored 111 points, which is consistent with their season average of 115.1 points per game. As for their offense, the Nuggets rank 4th in the NBA with a field goal percentage of 49%. When it comes to three-pointers, the Nuggets are 6th in percentage and 21st in total makes.

On average, the Denver defense is giving up 109.8 points per game (3rd). Right now, they are on a two game streak of giving up fewer points than their season average. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Nuggets squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 51.9% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 35.7% from downtown.

When they last played, the Warriors scored 121 points against the Magic. Overall, they shot 53.8% from the field and hit 13 threes. Stephen Curry is the team’s leading scorer, with an average of 27.6 points per game. Klay Thompson is also averaging 16.7 points per game this season.

At present, the Warriors’ defense is ranked 20th, allowing 116.3 points per game. So far this season, the Warriors’ defense has struggled with fouls, averaging 5th in fouls per contest. On average, opponents are getting to the line 25.3 times per game vs. Golden State.

Betting Trends

• The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last road games and 5-0 straight-up.
• Across the Warriors’ last five home games, the team averaged 119 points per game while allowing 122. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 1-4 straight-up.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Warriors have gone 2-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 8-2 and an ATS mark of 6-4.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Even though the Warriors are a much better team at home than when playing on the road, I still like the Nuggets in this spot as 2.5-point favorites. My pick is for Denver to win this one straight up and to cover.