Pacers at Mavs Total Pick | NBA March 5

by | Last updated Mar 5, 2024 | nba

Indiana Pacers (34-28 SU, 32-28 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (34-27 SU, 32-29 ATS)

When: Tuesday, March 5th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas


Point Spread: Ind +4.5/Dal -4.5

Total: 246

Money Line: Indiana Pacers +156/-190

Notable Injuries


  • Doug McDermott (Out) Calf
  • Aaron Nesmith (Questionable) Quad
  • Ben Sheppard (Questionable) Illness


  • Derrick Jones Jr. (Questionable) Shoulder
  • Maxi Kleber (Questionable) Knee
  • Luka Doncic (Questionable) Ankle

At 8:30 ET, the Dallas Mavericks (-190) will host the Indiana Pacers (+156) in a non-conference matchup. Dallas is currently favored by 4.5 points (-4.5), and the over/under line is set at 246 points.

The Pacers are 8th in the Eastern Conference at 34-28 and have lost two straight games. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 8th in the West at 34-27 and have also lost two in a row.

Recent Form

Indiana is 34-28 this season and is currently in 8th place in the Eastern Conference. In games against other Eastern Conference teams, the Pacers are 25-15 and 10-2 against their division.

On the road, the Pacers are 14-16 for the season, and they have an ATS record of 15-14 on the road. Against the spread, they are 32-28 overall and have failed to cover in their last two games.

As the underdog, Indiana is 16-16 this season and 18-12 vs. the spread. They are 3.5-point underdogs today and have gone 18-12 ATS as the underdog.

Indiana’s O/U record for the season is 33-29, and the under has hit in their last three games. Today’s line of 246 is slightly higher than their season average of 243.5.

In their most recent game, the Pacers lost to the Spurs by a score of 117-105. The O/U line for that game was 242, and Indiana was favored by 6.5 points going into the game.

Dallas is looking to end a two-game losing streak today as they host the Pacers. The Mavericks are favored by 4.5 points and have gone 2-3 straight-up and 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

In the Western Conference standings, the Mavericks are currently in 8th place with a record of 34-27. Within the Southwest Division, they are in 2nd place.

On the season, Dallas has been favored in 35 of their 61 games and has a record of 25-10 in those games. As the favorite, they have gone 21-14 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +5.9 points per game.

The Mavericks’ most recent game was a 120-116 loss to the 76ers. They were favored by 7.5 points in that game, giving them an ATS loss as well. The O/U line for that game was 237.5.

For the season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 31-30, with an average over/under line of 236.2. Today’s line of 246 is higher than 54 of their previous games.

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The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Pacers have gone 3-2, but the Mavericks actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Dallas has averaged 117 points per contest, while allowing 114. Over the course of these games, they averaged 231 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.


Indiana enters this game as the NBA’s top-scoring team at 123.3 points per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 120 points per game.

The Pacers have outscored the NBA scoring average in 69.4% of their games this season. However, they have scored less than their average in each of their last four games.

Indiana leads the NBA in field goal percentage at 50% and is also first in two-point shooting at 58%. They are making an average of 13.4 three-pointers per game.

Looking at the Pacers defense, they will be looking for a better performance considering they are currently conceding 122.0 points per game (28th). The Pacers defense is coming off a game in which they held the Spurs offense to just 44.1% shooting. Overall, they gave up 117 points to San Antonio.

At home this season, the Mavericks are averaging 120.3 points per game (8th). Overall, they are 6th in the NBA in scoring at 118.7 points per game. They have outscored the league average in 59% of their games.

When it comes to three-point shooting, Dallas is 3rd in made threes per game (15) and 2nd in three-point attempts (40). However, their three-point shooting percentage is 37% (11th).

So far, the Mavericks have made 48% of their shots (13th). In terms of pace, they are 12th in the NBA at 99.7 possessions per game.

Coming into the game, the Mavericks’ defense is giving up an average of 118.0 points per game. So far, they have given up more points than the NBA league average in 63.9% of their games. Dallas struggled on the boards in their last game vs. the 76ers, giving up 12. For the game, Philadelphia scored 120 points in the game.

Betting Trends

  • Through their last five road contests, the Pacers offense has averaged 112 points per game while allowing an average of 118. Indiana posted an overall record of 2-3 while going 1-4 ATS.
  • Dallas has a 1-2 record in their last three home games. In this stretch, they averaged 121 points per game while allowing 128. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
  • As the betting underdog, the Pacers have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Indiana posted a straight up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
  • Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 8-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-4.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

If you love offense, this is the game for you. There shouldn’t be a lot of high-level defense being played in this one, and Dallas is currently favored by 4.5 in what is expected to be a shootout. Even with the line sitting at 246, I still this game going past that line. My pick is to take the over in a game that could come right down to the wire.