Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors Free Pick 4/1/18

Phoenix Suns (19-58 SU, 34-41-2 ATS ) at Golden State Warriors (55-21 SU, 32-43-1 ATS)
Time: Sunday, April 1st, 2018 8:35 PM EDT
Where: Oracle Arena Oakland, CA
TV: FSN / TSN2
by Keith, Professional NBA Handicapper, Predictem

Odds
Point Spread: Golden State -14.5
Total Line: 215

The Phoenix Suns and the Golden State Warriors will meet on Easter Sunday in a NBA Pacific Division collision set to take place at the famous “O” or otherwise known as the Oracle Arena in Oakland, California. The game is set for a tip-off of 8:35 PM EDT and televised on both FSN and TSN2. The two teams have varied greatly in their body of work. In the last ten meetings between both parties, the Warriors have swept all ten contests with victories. Most recently, Golden State thumped Phoenix 124-109 in March in the Desert. Times have changed in the past 10 years. There was a time when the teams were separated by 1 bucket - .

Both teams enter off contrasting notions. For Phoenix, they have failed to win one game in their last ten outings. On the contrary, the Warriors snapped a three-game losing streak with a 112-96 victory last night against cross-state adversary Sacramento. Golden State enters as the reigning and defending NBA Champion while Phoenix remains sieged in the doldrums as the runt of the Western Conference.

Betting Trends

There are many betting trends worth looking at in this contest. First off, Golden State is 4-0 ATS against Phoenix in the previous four meetings. Phoenix is 10-29 SU away from the Desert while Golden State is 28-11 SU at home. The amount of losses Golden State has racked up this season both overall and at home is considered uncharacteristic of this Warriors bunch.

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Handicapping Analysis

The Suns own an edge in one key department: intangibles. Phoenix will enter this game with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Given how Golden State has dominated this outfit as of late, the Suns are accompanied by a likely favorable point total to back them. Under any other circumstance, the Suns may offer little appeal as an option in this market.

The Warriors at this point remain the gold standard of the NBA. Despite recent troubles, the Warriors feature some dynamic playmakers in their starting ensemble. Most notably, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, and of course the chef himself point guard Stephen Curry. Golden States ability to whack teams they are supposed to win against offers tremendous upside in this market even if the swim is a long one back.

Public Money

From the get-go, we have seen a lean take shape on the Suns. This analysis is reflected in the Warriors opening as a 15.5-point favorite before the line fell to 14.5 where it currently stands. In Over/Under markets, we saw a one-point decrease as well to reflect action coming in on the Under in this contest. Check out what one of our public NBA forum handicappers is on.

Team vs Team Pick ATS

When you back Golden State you can expect to pay a premium to do so. This is even more prevalent when the market in question features one of the weakest teams in the NBA. The only way the books can even get someone to back Phoenix here is by jacking up the number of points the Suns take back against the Warriors. Chances are the number here is quite inflated. Despite early indications that money has come in on Phoenix, the Warriors are a public team, and you can expect late steam to roll in on this team. The number presented is not conducive to a cover for Golden State. There is an excellent chance that the Warriors will build up a large lead and call off their starters in preparation for the post-season. In doing so, there is plenty of backdoor potential for the Suns even if they are rotating personnel from the opening tip. Secondly, there is always the look ahead angle that can create a scenario Golden State takers do not want to find themselves in as Phoenix may hang around as a result of the Warriors taking them lightly.

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