Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets Predictions 1/13/22

Portland Trail Blazers (16-24 SU, 15-24-1 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (20-19 SU, 16-23-0 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 13th, 2022, 10:00 pm (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

TV: TNT

Point Spread: POR +9/DEN -9 (Opened at 8 at WagerWeb – Did you know that you can tease NBA bets up to 20 points there?)

Total: 215.5 (Opened at 215.5)

Money Line: POR +350/DEN -470

Power Rating: DEN -10

Probable Starting Lineups

Portland Trail Blazers: PG Dennis Smith, SG Ben McLemore, SF Nassir Little, PF Robert Covington, C Jusuf Nurkic

Denver Nuggets: PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic

Key Injuries

Portland Trail Blazers: G Damian Lillard *Out* (Abdominal), G C.J. McCollum *Out* (Lung), C Cody Zeller *Doubtful* (Knee), G Anfernee Simons *Out* (Personal), F Norman Powell *Out* (Covid), F Larry Nance Jr. *Out* (Knee)

Denver Nuggets: G Will Barton *Probable* (Toe), F Vlatko Cancar *Out* (Foot), G Markus Howard *Questionable* (Knee), G PJ Dozier *Out* (Knee), F Michael Porter Jr. *Out* (Back), G Jamal Murray *Out* (Knee)

Recent Form

The Portland Trail Blazers come into this matchup with a 16-24 record and are 10th in the Western Conference. After a strong start to the season, the Trail Blazers quickly met their demise. Between injuries stacking up and them losing their groove as one of the best home teams, Portland has seen themselves fall farther down the conference standings as the season pushes on. Though their season has quickly got away from them, they’ve seen some success in recent games. The Trail Blazers are winners of two straight, including a major upset on Monday over the Brooklyn Nets. With Lillard and McCollum out of the lineup, they were able to outduel the Nets by holding their starting five to just 61 points. After a nice homestand, the Trail Blazers now face a tough six-game road trip when they’ve only managed two road wins so far this season. Though absent in this game and for the indefinite future, Damian Lillard leads the team with 24.0 PPG. The Trail Blazers sit inside the top half of the league with the 14th best scoring offense, averaging 108.8 PPG and 106.0 PPG over their last three games. The Portland scoring defense sits 26th on the season, allowing 112.5 PPG, though they’ve been better than that mark in their last three games, allowing just 103.3 PPG.

The Denver Nuggets enter this game with a 20-19 record and sit 6th in the Western Conference. In their first six games of the month, the Nuggets sit at an even 3-3 after their loss to the Clippers last time on the floor. In some of their losses this year, the Denver defense has played amazing, often holding opposing offenses under 100 points but failing to create their own offensive energy. If the Nuggets can consistently score over 100 points while continuing their defensive dominance, this team could quickly climb the ranks in the West. The team’s Achilles heel that has hindered their offense this season is their injuries to key scoring contributors. With Michael Porter Jr. out for the rest of the season and Jamal Murray’s return still a question mark for a timeline, the Nuggets will need to see continued production out of reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. Jokic is having himself another MVP-caliber season, averaging a stat line of 26-14-7, and leads the team in steals and blocks per game as well. Denver sits 24th offensively as they average 105.6 PPG on the season and 101.7 PPG over their last three contests. Defensively they’re still a top team in the 8th spot, allowing 105.6 PPG on the season and 97.7 PPG in their last three games.

Trail Blazers on the Road

The Portland Trail Blazers currently hold one of the worst road records in the league at 2-13. You would have to go back to their December 19th matchup against the Grizzlies to see the last time the Trail Blazers got a win that wasn’t at Moda Center. Being a west coast team, the Trail Blazers already aren’t known for their defense, but without their top two scorers in Lillard and McCollum, no matter how well they play defensively, their offense rarely has got the job done without them. For bettors, the Trail Blazers haven’t been a good bet this season on the road, going 3-12 ATS and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. Breaking down the basics of their road statistics, the Trail Blazers are 4th to last defensively, allowing 115.9 PPG and sit in the bottom handful of teams offensively, scoring 103.7 PPG on the road. A -12.2-point differential on the road isn’t going to cut it in the NBA, and as they go into a Ball Center where the Nuggets have played well this season, I’m not holding my breath on them being able to keep this one close.

Nuggets at Home

Though a 9-7 home record isn’t eye-popping, the Nuggets have done enough to suppress some of the West’s top offenses to keep a winning record at Ball Center. With already a top 10 defense, the Nuggets are even better at home, allowing just 103.6 PPG, which is 5th best in the NBA. If Lillard and McCollum were active in this game, I’d consider entertaining the idea of the Trail Blazers keeping the game close in a shooter-friendly arena. Since that isn’t the case, the Denver defense will once again smother a depleted team that has seen little success on the road. Also being Portland leans heavily on the 3-point shot, attempting the 6th most per game in the league, and faces a top 10 defense in defending the perimeter, the stats point more and more in favor of the Nuggets. From a betting perspective, the Nuggets haven’t been a sure thing at home, going 7-9 ATS this season. To ease the minds of anyone looking to stand in their corner in this one, the Nuggets are 5-2 ATS against teams with a losing road record in their last seven games.

Thursday night will be the third time these teams square off this season. Both earlier contests came back in November, just nine days apart, where the teams split each game with the home team being victorious. Dating back to last season, the Nuggets have the slight edge, winning three of the last five matchups.

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How the Public is Betting the Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets

63% are betting the Nuggets against the spread.

53% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 215.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

• The Portland Trail Blazers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games.
• The Portland Trail Blazers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
• The Denver Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games vs. teams with a losing road record.
• The Denver Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
• The Over is 7-1 in the Trail Blazers last eight games vs. teams with a winning record.
• The Under is 8-2 in the Nuggets’ last ten games.
• The Portland Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. Denver.
• The Over is 4-0 in the last four games between these teams when playing in Denver.

Collin’s Pick for Trail Blazers/Nuggets

This Western Conference matchup features a Portland team who has just two road wins on the season, taking on a Denver Nuggets defense who is one of the best in the NBA. With the Trail Blazers out their two most important and productive scorers, the Trail Blazers see themselves as nine-point underdogs and lack the offensive firepower to keep it close in most of their losses. Being outmanned on all fronts of the game has the makings of a lopsided affair, which is what I’m expecting in this one. The Denver Nuggets not only win this game but do it in convincing fashion to secure their 10th home win of the season. Take the Denver Nuggets to cover the 9-point spread. Question: When you bet on NBA games, are you laying -110 odds (or more)? OF COURSE YOU ARE! Did you know that you could be betting on games at -105 instead? Why not invest five measly minutes to make save yourself thousands of dollars? Get educted about betting on games at reduced juice TODAY! You’ll be so glad you did!