Sacramento Kings vs. LA Clippers Spread Pick | Feb 26, 2024

Miami Heat (31-25 SU, 26-27 ATS) vs. Sacramento Kings (33-23 SU, 29-27 ATS)

When: Monday, February 26th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Golden 1 Center, CA, Sacramento

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Mia +7.5/Sac -7.5

Total: 225.5

Money Line: Miami Heat +239/-297

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Jimmy Butler (Out) Suspension
• Josh Richardson (Out) Shoulder
• Terry Rozier (Questionable) Knee
• Thomas Bryant (Out) Suspension
• Tyler Herro (Questionable) Knee
• Dru Smith (Out) Knee
• Nikola Jovic (Out) Suspension
• Orlando Robinson (Questionable) Back

Kings

• Alex Len (Out) Illness
• Sasha Vezenkov (Out) Ankle

At 10:00 ET, the Miami Heat (+239) will travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings (-297) in a non-conference matchup. The over/under line is currently set at 225.5.

Miami comes into this game with a record of 31-25 and has won three in a row. The Heat are currently 7th in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the Southeast Division. Sacramento is 33-23 and has also won three straight games. The Kings are 5th in the Western Conference and 2nd in the Pacific Division.

Recent Form

Miami has won three straight games as the underdog and is 9-15 as the underdog this season. Today, they are 7.5-point underdogs and have a 9-15 record as the underdog.

The Heat have an average scoring differential of +0.7 points per game on the road this season. Their ATS record on the road is 14-11, and they have covered the spread in three straight games on the road.

In the Eastern Conference, Miami is currently in 7th place with a record of 31-25. Against the East, they are 22-16 compared to 9-9 against the West.

Miami’s O/U record for the season is 21-35, and the under has hit in five straight games. This season, their games have averaged 220.6 points per game, which is lower than today’s O/U line of 225.5.

In their last game, the Heat beat the Pelicans by a score of 106-95. The O/U line for that game was 220.5, and Miami covered the spread as 2.5-point underdogs.

Sacramento is favored by 7.5 points at home against the Heat today. The Kings have won their last two games as the favorite and have a 26-13 record as the favorite this season.

In their last game, the Kings defeated the Clippers by a score of 123-107. They were 4-point underdogs going into the game, giving them an ATS win. The O/U line for the game was 238.5.

This season, the Kings have an average scoring differential of +1.2 points per game at home. On the road, they are outscoring opponents by an average of +0.5 points per game.

Sacramento has won three straight games and currently has a record of 33-23, which is good for 5th place in the Western Conference. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 22-15 and 7-6 in their division.

On average, the Kings’ games have seen a combined scoring total of 236.4 points. Today’s O/U line is set at 225.5, and their games have averaged an O/U line of 236.5.

Sacramento has an ATS record of 29-27 this season, going 18-13 on the road and 11-14 at home. In their last two road games, they have covered the spread.

So far this season, the Kings have gone 29-26-1 on the over/under. In their last game vs. the Clippers, the teams combined for 230 points, which was below the O/U line of 238.5.

The Historicals

Although the Kings have the better ATS mark across the previous 5 head-head matchups at 3-2, the average scoring margin sits in favor of Miami, as they averaged 114 points per game while allowing 109. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 3-2. Combined, they averaged 223 points in these games.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Heat are 27th in the NBA at 110.5 points per game. In terms of their road scoring, they are 28th in the league at 107.9 points per game.

So far this season, Miami has scored below the NBA scoring average in 66.1% of their games. They are also 28th in pace at 96.4 possessions per game.

When it comes to shooting, the Heat are 24th in the league at 46% from the field. In terms of two-point shooting, they are 27th in the NBA at 52%.

Miami’s defense has been playing well, ranking 4th in the NBA with 110.1 points allowed per game. For the season, Miami is ranked 26th in fewest fouls per game. Team’s are averaging 20.0 free-throws per game vs. the Heat and have an overall field goal percentage of 47.3%.

At home, the Kings have been one of the most prolific offenses in the NBA this season, averaging 122.0 points per game. Overall, they are 7th in the league at 118.6 points per game. They have outscored the NBA scoring average in 66.1% of their games and are 9th in pace at 100.2 possessions per game.

Sacramento’s offense is fueled by their three-point shooting, as they are 4th in the league in three-point makes at 14.8 per game. Overall, they are 11th in field goal percentage at 48%. However, they have struggled at the free-throw line, ranking 25th in free throws made per game.

Coming into the game, the Kings have outscored their scoring average in each of their last two games. In terms of assists, Sacramento is 6th in the league at 28.7 per game.

Coming into today’s game, the Kings’ defense is giving up an average of 117.8 points per contest. Opponents are hitting 54.3% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 39.3% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• The Heat are 3-0 ATS in their three last road games and 3-0 straight-up.
• Across their last three home contests, Sacramento has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 116 points per game.
• The Heat have played well in their last five games as the betting underdog, going 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread.
• Although the Kings have a strong straight up record in their last three games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 1-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Heat are riding a three game winning streak, but not only are they playing out West, they are also dealing with a huge inactive list from the fallout of Friday’s nights scuffle vs. New Orleans. Jimmy Butler, headlines the list of players who will be serving a suspension. On the other end, the Kings are playing on back-to-back nights, but are coming off an impressive win vs. the Clippers. I like the Kings to cover at -7.5.