Atanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Point Spread – Pick ATS 10/29/2017

Atanta Falcons (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. New York Jets (3-4 SU,4-2 ATS)
NFL Week 8
Date/Time: Sunday, October 29th, 1:00pm ET
Where: MetLife Stadium - East Rutherford, NJ
TV: Fox
by Bob, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: ATL -4.5/NYJ +4.5
Over/Under Total: 46

As a die hard and life long Atlanta Falcons fan, a month ago I see this match up and just laugh knowing that the Falcons will get an easy win, score maybe 35-40 points, and pull the starters midway through the fourth quarter. Well, now, I am not so sure we even win. The Falcons will travel into MetLife Stadium this weekend to take on a Jets team that is not as bad as we all thought they would be. Not only are the Jets playing better than expected, after a 3-0 start, the Atlanta Falcons are not the team we thought they would be either.

Regardless of the Falcons woes as of late, they are still five point favorites against the Jets while the total points are set at 46. The public seems to still be buying the Falcons hype because 66% of the action is on Atlanta to cover on the road. As for the total points, the public action likes the over with 55% leaning that way.

The Falcons as we know are the reigning NFC Champs and were just moments away from winning the Super Bowl. Since that time the Falcons have gone 3-3 but in the second half of each game, they look bad…real bad. They blew a 17 point lead to the Dolphins two weeks ago and then this past Sunday night, in a game that was supposed to be a revenge game with the Patriots, they Falcons looked horribly unprepared and never showed any sense of urgency in the 23-7 loss to the Pats. So far in 2017, the Falcons offense has been the weak spot. No one would have imagined that an ALL TIME historical offense would return everyone and fall this far just a year later. Is it execution? Is the loss of Offensive Coordinator, Kyle Shannahan bigger than we thought? Time will tell, but right now the Falcons have more questions than answers.

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So far in 2017 the Atlanta Falcons are ranked 16th in scoring offense and 15th in scoring defense. The problem lately has not been the yardage of the offense it is the scoring. Against the Patriots, the Falcons had four redzone trips that led to just seven points…and those seven points were when the game was already technically over. Against both the Bills and Dolphins, the Falcons were driving for wins and in the opponents redzone. Both drives stalled and led to losses. These offensive woes need to stop and now if the Falcons want to get themselves in position to make another post season run. The defense has not played great but some of that can ab attributed to the lack of offense causing the defense to spend more time on the field (ie -second half of the Super Bowl). The Falcons have a great roster but the time is now to get the most of those guys.

The New York Jets opened this season as a favorite to be the worst team in the NFL. Some thought when the smoke cleared, they would have even less wins than the Cleveland Browns. So far, that is far from the truth. Not only have the Jets gone 3-4 to start the 2017 season, but their most recent two losses to the Patriots and Dolphins were games they could have won….the Dolphins game they SHOULD have won. This Jets team is playing with confidence and they just may be catching the Falcons at the right time. On the season, the Jets are not ranked in the top 15 of any category both offensively or defensively. I am not saying this Jets team is a good team, but they are playing hard and playing as a team. They are playing with a confidence and it is obvious they are not playing the “tanking” game for a top pick int he draft. These guys want to win now. The key this weekend is to not let the Falcons get soaring early. If the Falcons can get the offense going early, they could take away the Jets confidence and cruise to victory….but with that said, even if Atlanta goes up 20 points, can they hold the lead? The Jets just need to play mistake free football and not give up any big plays on either side of the ball.

I can see this game going either one of two ways. A battle to the bitter end with someone coming out with a three point win or an Atlanta Falcons blowout. Here is the deal…as much as I like the Falcons there is no way in hell I am risking one dollar of my money on this team right now. Can they cover? Yes. Should they cover? Yes. Will they cover? I have no clue which is why I am taking the Jets at home plus the points they have been given.

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