Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders Betting Pick

by | Last updated Nov 23, 2022 | nfl

Atlanta Falcons (5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. Washington Commanders (6-5 SU, 6-4-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 12

Date/Time: Sunday November 27th, 2022. 1:00 PM (EST)

Where: FedEx Field Landover, MD


Betting Odds:

Point Spread: ATL +4/WAS -4 (Bet the Dirty Birds as a +24 underdog or Wash as a +16 dog by inserting either into a massive 20 point college football teaser at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Moneyline: ATL +180/WAS -195

Total: 42

When starting QB Carson Wentz went down in week 5 with a fractured finger, the Commanders were 2-4 SU and appeared to be among the worst teams in the NFC. In the interim, Head Coach Ron Rivera turned to backup QB Taylor Heinicke as an interim solution. In 5 games since, the Commanders have won four of the last five games and have somehow climbed back into playoff contention. Despite the fact Wentz will return this week, the Commanders are slated to continue with Heinicke as the starter when Washington hosts the Atlanta Falcons at FedEx Field this Sunday.

The visiting Falcons snapped a two-game losing skid with a 27-24 win over Chicago last week. In that game, RB Cordarrelle Patterson set the NFL record with his 9th kickoff return for a touchdown. The rest of the Falcons’ offense produced just enough offense to cash in thanks to a Younghoe Koo 54-yard field goal as time expired to move to 5-6 SU on the season. While not exactly a pretty performance, the Falcons were once again in a heavily competitive game which has been their storyline throughout the season. On Sunday, the Falcons are expected to be in another heavily competitive contest as mere 4-point underdogs in their road trip to Washington!

Reduced Juice Sportsbook

BAS Sportsbook
BET AT -105

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders Betting Analysis

For anyone wondering, QB Taylor Heinicke may get to hold onto the starting job due to the fact the Commanders have pulled out wins in 4 of the last five games. However, Heinicke has not provided jaw-dropping performances to give Washington 100% confidence moving forward. In fact, Heinicke has just tossed five touchdowns and four interceptions with only 1,031 passing yards through 5 games as a starter. In comparison, Wentz threw for 1,489 yards with ten touchdowns and six picks through the opening six games of the season. Therefore, I imagine the Commanders will be quick to turn to Wentz if things go south in the coming weeks.

For this Sunday’s match-up against the Falcons, I do believe Washington fans can be encouraged for several reasons. The running game has been much better between the timeshare of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. Meanwhile, the Commanders still have talented receivers for Heinicke to target in the passing game. Perhaps more importantly, Washington’s defense has played really well in recent weeks, allowing just 15.8 points per game over the last six games. In that six-game stretch, the Commanders have pulled out victories over the Packers, Colts, and previously unbeaten Eagles. Therefore, the Washington defense likely gives the Commanders their best opportunity to keep the hot streak alive.

The main reason I mention the play of the Washington defense is because Atlanta has not exactly produced encouraging results on the offensive side of the football this season. QB Marcus Mariota has led a heavy rushing attack that features Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, and Caleb Huntley. The Falcons’ run game has given the team their best chance at winning, but it has been far from a fireproof strategy. The passing attack has struggled throughout the year and took a big hit last week when TE Kyle Pitts was lost for the season with an injury. Therefore, the Falcons passing attack will be led by the likes of Drake London, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Damiere Byrd, who are a relatively young and inexperienced group of receivers.

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders Betting Trends

  • The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in the last five games
  • The Falcons are 1-6 SU in the last seven games on the road
  • The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in the last eight games against NFC opponents
  • The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in the last six games on the road against Washington
  • The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 games
  • The Commanders are 5-1 SU in the last six games
  • The Commanders have hit the “under” in 7 of the last nine games
  • The Commanders have hit the “under” in 6 of the last nine games against NFC opponents

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders Betting Prediction

The Commanders’ defense has been strong against the run this season, allowing just 100 yards per game on the ground. If they can take away Atlanta’s main source of moving the football, I believe the Commanders will pull out another victory. I like the under in this game, and I like Washington to get the job done.

Jay’s Pick: Take Washington -4. Bet your Week 12 NFL picks for FREE by scoring a 100% (or more) real cash bonus from one of the numerous rock solid bookies on our Sportsbook Promo Codes page!