Baltimore Ravens (4-7 SU, 2-7-2 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS)
NFL Week 13
Date/Time: Sunday, December 6, 1:00pm
Where: Sun Life Stadium Miami, FL
TV: CBS
by Bob, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BAL +4 / MIA -4
Over/Under Total: 43
Sunday at 1:00pm there is an AFC game down in Miami that many of us do not really care about. The 4-7 Baltimore Raven will travel into Sun Life Stadium and take on the Miami Dolphins who are also 4-7 on the season. Coming into week thirteen, the Ravens are in third place in the AFC North and the Dolphins are in last place in the AFC East. Neither team has a shot of making the post season, but both teams do have talent and are in no way wanting to lose this weekend. In years past when teams know they are out of the playoff hunt, they pack it in and hope for a better draft pick. I can guarantee neither of these teams have that mindset and both want to get this win.
The line opens with the Dolphins as the four point home favorite over the Ravens while the total points are set at 43. Currently there is more action on the Ravens to cover the spread that on the Fish. 56% of bettors are liking Baltimore to keep this game close, if not win. Another 56% like this game to stay under the total of 43 points. I would lean on the over side, but I will not make that official seeing as how I trust neither team on either side of the ball.
Baltimore is getting lots of love because of their dramatic win over Cleveland on Monday nightbutits Cleveland, cmon. Baltimore has not had a good 2015. They started the season 0-3 before beating the Steelers but then things got even worse for them. Baltimore lost their next three games to drop to 1-6 on the season. Now though, in the last three games, Baltimore is 2-1 and is actually looking a little better. On the season, from a statistical standpoint, the Ravens are not bad on paper. They have the 10th best passing offense, are ranked in the upper half of the league in scoring, but the defense is lacking. It is not normal for the Baltimore defense to be the cause of their losses, but this year, that has been the case completely. Allowing 25 points a game is not going to get wins in this league, well at least not enough wins to get you to that next level that Baltimore fans grew accustomed to for years. The goal this weekend against the Dolphins will be to play defense. If they can keep the Dolphins out of the endzone, I believe Baltimore can win this game, not only cover the four. No outcome would surprise me in this one.
Miami had high expectations coming into 2015 and well, they have not met those expectations. They will be searching for a new coach for 2016 and potentially some free agents to help get them over the top. I figured the Dolphins would compete for and potentially make a playoff run, but, nahnot now. At 4-7 they are just trying to gain some momentum headed into the 2016 season and maybe then they can compete in the AFC, maybe. Miami is 1-4 in their last five games and are a bad decision by Mark Sanchez away from being 0-5 in that stretch. This team is just not very competitive right now and it does not appear to be getting any better. Being ranked 27th in both scoring offense and scoring defense will not win you many games. If the Dolphins not only plan to cover the four point spread, but to even just win this game, the offense needs to step up this Sunday. The Baltimore defense is prone to give up points and that is the only way the Dolphins will win this one seeing as how their defense isnt very stout either.
These teams are very similar from a stats standpoint. Both struggle on defense but Baltimore has a little more success on offensea little more. These teams are very evenly matched and even though I usually like the home team in these type of games, the four points is just a little too much for me to give up. If Miami was a two point favorite and MAYBE even three, I may would have them as the play, but not this weekend. I like Baltimore to not only come in and cover but I am calling a 24-21 OVERTIME win for the Baltimore Ravens. I just trust them and their pedigree a little more than I do Miami right now.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE BALTIMORE RAVENS +4
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