Buffalo Bills(2-1SU, 2-1ATS) vs. Houston Texans(2-1SU, 2-1ATS)
NFL Week 4
Date and Time:September 28, @ 1:00 PM EST
Where: NRG Stadium
TV: DirectTV Sunday Ticket
Point Spread: BUFF +3/HOU -3
Over/Under Total: 41
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A pair of winning teams hook up in this Week four matchup. After starting the season 2-0, both teams lost games they were favored to win. This contest has the fewest amount of bets placed on it as of Wednesday evening. It seems that the public and sharps don’t think much of this game. The line seems right so don’t expect it to move at all. The Buffalo Bills Lost to the Chargers 22-10 as 2.5-point home chalk. They were pushed around on both lines. Buffalo was outagined by 44 yards and sit at 1-2 ITS (in the stats) this season. Houston showed its true colors in losing 30-17 as 1-point road chalk to the New York Giants. It was a 4* Service play winner for all my clients. Coming into the game, the Texans were winning despite getting outstatted. The Giants continued that trend by outgaining the Texans by 8 yards. Houston has lost the stats in five straight games and nine of the past 10, dating back to last season. That makes them 0-3 ITS this season. Not a good formula for long-term success in the NFL.
I look at these two teams and I see a lot of similarities in both style of play and in the stats. Both squads seemed to be improved over last season. Most of the experts think it’s too early to know exactly how it will play out. I personally don’t see Buffalo or Houston as a playoff team. However, the winner of this game will be looking good to make the playoffs at 3-1. Not so fast my friend. The Texans haven’t outgained any team in over 1 year, and they have a tougher schedule as we progress into the season. Houston’s next three games are against Dallas, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh. The Texans still haven’t faced an elite quarterback this year. No, Eli Manning is not elite in my opinion, even though he has two Super Bowl rings. Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl and we can all agree he’s not elite. Buffalo has yet to play New England and the Jets. Also, they have a tough non-conference schedule in the second half.
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Houston has the better offense while Buffalo brings in the better stop unit. The number are close though as each team is only better by roughly 30 yards. This game is probably one of the toughest games to predict in quite some time. I was talking with a professional bettor like myself, and we both agreed that fading these two teams would have been the smart play this Sunday. Unfortunately for us, they happen to be playing each other. Both teams are struggling in special teams after the first three weeks of the season. I have Buffalo ranked No. 17 and surprising, Houston is even worse at No. 19. This is the type of game that usually comes down to somebody on special teams making a big play. Only die hard fans of both teams should wager on this game. Make it small because the wise guys agree to stay far away from this game. You don’t have to play them all!
The Texans have won two straight against the Bills with last matchup occurring in 2012. Houston covered both games as well. The home team is 15-6 ATS in Buffalo games of late.The Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. The Texans are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 4. Houston is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall. Good Luck if you choose to wager on this one!
Our Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Slight lean to the Buffalo Bills.