Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Pick 12/15/19
Chicago Bears (7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
NFL Week 15
Date and Time: Sunday, December 15 at 1pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field
Point Spread: CHI +4.5/GB -4.5 (WagerWeb - Offers 20 Point Football Teasers! - 50% Bonus!)
Over/Under Total: 41
There are few rivalries in all of sports that rise to the level of Packers v. Bears. Green Bay and Chicago will tangle again Sunday, extending the NFL’s most-played series to 200 games, and there is plenty on the line as both teams look to improve their playoff chances. Green Bay is almost surely in the playoff draw, but they are just one game ahead of Minnesota with a Monday Night date in Minneapolis next week. Staying a game clear of the Vikings going into that contest would be much preferable than the alternative. Chicago was left for dead about a month ago, but they have won their last three and four-of-five to re-insert themselves in the wildcard picture. Chicago’s remaining schedule is brutally tough, and their chances of running the table are slim, but any opportunity to do so starts with a reasonable effort on Sunday. These teams opened up the 2019 season with Green Bay sneaking out a 10-3 win in a defensive struggle that saw both sides notch five sacks and former-Bears S Adrian Amos ended the contest by intercepting Mitchell Trubisky in the endzone.
Chicago finally has some positive momentum, but it might be hard to maintain considering the recent spate of key injuries. Roquan Smith leads the team in tackles but is out for the remainder of the season with a pectoral injury. Prince Amukamara is second on the team in passes defended but draws the questionable tag as he nurses a hamstring injury. Danny Trevathan is trending toward returning from an elbow injury but remains questionable for Sunday. Trevathan is the fourth leading tackler on a defense that has remained inside the top-10 in yards allowed despite a steady shuffling of the starting lineup due to injury. Chicago is fourth in points allowed, giving up 17.8 points per game and is elite against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry and less than 100 yards per game on the ground. That defensive production has been necessary with the offense ranking outside the top-25 in just about every relevant category, including total yards and points per game. Trubisky has been the center of most offensive criticism, but he has played better of late, averaging 286 passing yards per game during the three-game winning streak and logging eleven touchdowns to five interceptions over the last five games. The running game has been inconsistent at best, averaging just 84 yards per game, and Sunday’s prospects are not good with David Montgomery (680/5) listed as questionable with a leg injury. Tarik Cohen is second on the team with 60 receptions, but he isn’t the type of back to put in a big carry total, and Chicago may not be able to take advantage of running against the 25th-ranked run defense of Green Bay. Allen Robinson has put in a quality season despite Trubisky’s struggles with 76 catches for 898 yards and seven scores to lead the team in all categories. He hit the 100-yard mark in Week 1 against the Packers and may not have to worry about seeing one of Green Bay’s best cover men as CB Kevin King is questionable with a bad shoulder.
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Good Enough is Good Enough
At 10-3, Green Bay has the record of an NFC contender, but their 309 points for is the smallest total for any ten win team, and their +39 point differential is raising more questions than answers. In general, the offense ranks 23rd in total yards, but Aaron Rodgers has been able to infuse some efficiency, and the Packers rise to 13th in points, averaging 23.8 per game. Rodgers is at 23 touchdowns against just two interceptions and brings a 102 rating to Sunday. The running backs have been the most consistent factor all season with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams combining for 1,800 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns with both backs north of 4.4 yards per carry. Davante Adams (56/685/3) has only played in nine games but leads the team in catches and yards as the only consistent target for Rodgers on a week-to-week basis. Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith have combined for 21.5 sacks, but neither has gotten one in either of the last two games, and Green Bay’s defense continues to slide back in the rankings. The defense was once a top-10 unit overall but has fallen outside the top-20 in rushing, passing and total yards allowed.
Both teams are hot against the division with Chicago at 9-2 against the spread in the last eleven against the NFC North and Green Bay riding a 6-0 ATS streak against a North foe. The Under could be the play as it has hit in six of the last seven Chicago games inside the division and each of the last six when Green Bay is up against an NFC North opponent. The macro trend shows Green Bay winning 13 of the last 18 against the spread in this series. Early betting has roughly 60% of the public action coming in on Green Bay’s side as they try to make it seven in a row against the spread immediately following an ATS loss like they took last week against Washington.
Green Bay is 3-3 ATS in the last six overall, alternating wins and losses over that span. So based on that, I guess it is time for them to notch another ATS W. I don’t think Chicago has the offensive motor to get over on a Green Bay defense that is doing just enough to keep opponents at bay. The Green Bay offense has sputtered at times, but I would still want Rodgers in my corner rather than betting against him at home. The Packers are short on consistent playmaking on the outside, but the running backs have been a boost to the passing game, and continued production there will help them avoid running right at the teeth of the 7th best run defense of Chicago. Rodgers has owned the Bears in his tenure as a starting QB, and I think that trend continues this week with Green Bay shutting down and turning Trubisky over en route to a 23-16 win.
Ted’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Green Bay. Did you know that you don’t have to lay -110 odds on football? Most aren’t aware that wagering at discounted odds is an option! Stop wasting money today and start saving by placing your bets at only -105 odds at 5Dimes!