Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Best Bet

by | Nov 26, 2020 | nfl

Cleveland Browns (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9, 4-6), 11/29/20

Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 29

Where: TIAA Bank Field


Point spread: Cle -7/Jax +7 (Best Teaser Odds)

Money line: Browns -280/Jaguars +230

Over/Under: 49

The Cleveland Browns own the longest active playoff drought in the NFL at 18 seasons, stretching back to 2002, but they’ve got a great shot to halt that skid this season, heading into Sunday afternoon’s bout with the lowly Jaguars in Jacksonville. The Browns are 7-2 over their last nine games but only 4-5 against the spread, thanks to heightened expectations. Cleveland’s favored by a touchdown on the road for this one; who do we like here for our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 12 NFL betting odds opened Cleveland as a six-point favorite for this game, with an over/under of 46.5. Early betting action then bumped the Browns to -7 and shot that total to 49.

Browns Betting Preview

Cleveland is off to its best 10-game start to a season since 1994, back when the Browns were still the old Browns, after beating Philadelphia last week 22-17. The Browns broke the ice with a pick-six early in the second quarter and led 12-7 at the half. Cleveland then allowed the Eagles to get within 12-10 early in the fourth but responded by scoring the next 10 points of the game and held on from there for the victory and the cash as 2.5-point favorites.

The Browns out-gained Philadelphia 324-315, out-rushed the Eagles 137-106 and won the turnover battle 3-1, creating at least a +6 points differential. Cleveland also scored nine points on defense.

The Browns have only out-gained four of their 10 opponents this season but they’ve also out-rushed eight of their 10 foes. And they’re 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS when they win the ground battle.

Two weeks ago Cleveland out-rushed Houston 231-90, won 10-7 and would have covered the spread at -4.5 if Nick Chubb had scored that late touchdown, instead of stepping out of bounds at the Texans’ 1-yard line.

At 7-3 overall the Browns trail first-place Pittsburgh by three games in the AFC North, but they also own the No. 6 spot in the AFC standings, one game clear of Las Vegas, Baltimore and Miami.

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Jaguars Betting Preview

Jacksonville, on the other hand, just suffered its ninth loss in a row, 27-3 at home to Pittsburgh last week. The Jaguars actually drove their opening possession of the game 52 yards to a field goal but trailed 17-3 at halftime. Jacksonville then came up totally empty in the second half and whiffed against the spread as an 11-point underdog.

The Jags got out-gained by the Steelers 373-206, out-rushed 106-73, lost time of possession by a 36:24 split and lost the turnover battle 4-1, resulting in a -14 points differential.

So Jacksonville has only out-gained one of its last seven opponents.

Jags back-up QB Jake Luton, after some decent play in relief of starter Gardner Minshew the previous two weeks, hit on just 16/37 throws last week with four interceptions.

Two weeks ago the Jaguars led the Packers in Green Bay 20-17 in the fourth quarter, lost 24-20 but covered as two-touchdown underdogs. Three weeks ago Jacksonville lost to Houston 27-25 but covered at +7. And four weeks ago the Jags led the Chargers 29-22 late in the third quarter but gave up the last 17 points to lose 39-29. So they were right in all three of those games.

At 1-9 on the season the Jaguars are just trying to build a little momentum for the future.

These teams last met three seasons ago, a 19-7 Jacksonville win. But that’s already a long time ago for both these teams.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Home teams are 85-75 SU, 78-81 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 104-55 SU but only 69-89 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home dogs are 19-39 SU, 32-24 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

Totals are split 5-5 in Browns games this season, which are averaging 50 total points against an average over/under of 48.

Totals are also split 5-5 in Jaguars games this season, which are also averaging 50 points against an average O/U of 49.

Overs are 84-74 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Pick

Cleveland is out-rushing opponents by 52 yards per game while Jacksonville is getting out-rushed by 32 yards per game. And according to our research over many recent seasons teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. We’re betting the Brownies here. Note: If you’re still laying -110 odds on your bets, you’re overpaying and wasting your hard earned money. Did you know that you only have to lay -105 odds at BetAnySports? Making the switch to reduced juice betting will save you THOUSANDS of dollars over the long haul. Be smart! Start betting at -105 TODAY!

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