Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets Analysis & Prediction
Cleveland Browns (10-4 SU, 6-8 ATS) vs. New York Jets (1-13, 5-9), 12/27/20
Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 27
Where: MetLife Stadium
Point spread: Cle -9.5/NYJ +9.5 (Bitcoin Sportsbooks - 100% Bonuses!)
Money line: Browns -460/Jets +360
The Cleveland Browns aren’t just on the verge of dousing a 17-season playoff drought; they’re right back in the running for their first division title since 1989, heading into Sunday afternoon’s date with the no-longer-winless Jets at the Meadowlands. Cleveland rides a 5-1 run into this week’s game, and with some help from Pittsburgh, now sits just one game out of the lead in the AFC North. New York, meanwhile, just won for the first time this season. The Browns opened as favorites of better than 10 points for this game, but early betting action dipped that spread under that magic number. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 16 NFL betting odds opened the Browns at -10.5 over the Jets, with an over/under of 44. Early betting action then dipped that spread to -9.5 and bumped that total to 46.
Browns Betting Preview
Cleveland just bounced back from that tough loss to Baltimore two weeks ago to beat the Giants also at the Meadowlands last week 20-6. The Browns spotted New York the first three points of the game but scored twice in the second quarter to lead 13-3 at the half. Cleveland then scored the first seven points of the second half and hung on from there for the win and the cover as a six-point favorite.
The Browns out-gained the Giants 392-288, out-rushed New York 106-74, and won time of possession by a 34:26 split. Cleveland also benefited from some strange play-calling by the Giants, resulting in a pair of 4th-down stops for the Browns when the game was still close.
Cleveland has now out-gained each of its last six opponents and out-rushed five of its previous six foes. Not coincidentally, the Browns are 5-1 their last six times out.
At 10-4 overall, Cleveland now trails first-place Pittsburgh by just one game in the AFC North, and the Browns get one more whack at the Steelers in Week 17. Cleveland also owns the No. 5 spot in the AFC playoff standings. If the postseason started today, the Browns would play the Titans in an AFC wild-card game.
Jets Betting Preview
New York, meanwhile, just picked up its first victory of this season, a 23-20 upset of the Rams out in SoCal last week. The Jets, off as 17-point underdogs, drove their opening possession of the game 74 yards to a touchdown and led 13-3 at the half. New York then drove the opening possession of the second half 72 yards to a touchdown to go up 20-3, let Los Angeles get within a field goal with six minutes left but held on for the most unlikely victory in the NFL so far this season.
In the end, the Jets came up with a defensive stop in their own territory, then ran the last four minutes off the clock to ice down the W.
New York only produced 289 yards of total offense last week but only allowed 303 yards of Rams offense. The Jets also won the time of possession by a 34:26 clip and won the turnover battle 1-0, creating a +3 points differential. Just enough for the win.
Still, New York has now been out-gained each of its last ten games.
The Jets are actually 4-2 ATS over their last six games because they kept three other games close while getting a bunch of points.
At 1-13 overall, New York is now tied with Jacksonville in the “battle” for the No. 1 draft pick in next Spring’s NFL draft.
These teams have met each of the last five seasons. The Jets won three in a row from 2015-17, but the Browns won the previous two. Last year Cleveland beat New York 23-3, covering at -6.5.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 111-112 SU, 107-115 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 146-76 SU, 96-125 ATS (43 percent) in the NFL this season.
- Home dogs are 48-38 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Double-digit favorites are 21-4 SU, 10-14 ATS in the NFL this season.
Overs are 8-6 in Browns games this season, which are averaging 53 total points.
Unders are 8-6 in Jets games this season, which are averaging 44 points.
Unders are 3-0 over the last three meetings between these teams.
Overs played 10-6 in the NFL last week.
Overs are 111-109 in the NFL this season.
Free NFL Pick
Cleveland is playing very good football as of late, finally growing into the team many “experts” thought it could be. The Browns are out-rushing opponents by 42 yards per game, getting great play at quarterback and good play (other than two weeks ago against the Ravens) on defense. Meanwhile, New York is coming off a winning effort last week, but we fully expect a revert back toward normalcy – losing – this week. Plus, the line moved in our favor—we like Cleveland here, minus the points. Bet your Cle/NYJ pick and ALL your sports bets at -105 reduced odds instead of the more expensive -110 that your bookie is socking you with at one of the web’s BEST sports betting sites: BetAnySports!
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