Dallas Cowboys(1-0SU, 1-0ATS)vs. Denver Broncos(1-0SU, 0-0-1ATS)
NFLWeek 2
Date/Time:Sunday, September 17, 2017 at 4:25 PMEST
Where: Sports Authority Field
TV: FOX
byJeff Hochman, Professional Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread:DALL -2.5/ Den +2.5
Over/Under Total:42
A matchup of two undefeated teams clash when the Dallas Cowboys fly to the Mile High city to face the Denver Broncos. Denver is coming off a short week, defeating the San Diego Chargers in a thrilling game on MNF. Denver doesn’t have to travel which is a plus. The host outgained the Chargers by 72 yards and have now won six straight games dating back to last season. The Cowboys defeated the Giants on SNF, easily covering the 4-point spread. The Cowboys outgained the Giants by 159 yards, while converting eight of 15 on 3rd down conversions. Dak Prescott looked like a 7-year vet passing for 268 yards in a turnover-free performance.
These two teams don’t play each other very often to say least. Only 10 times since 1978. The Broncos are 6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings, including a 51-48 victory in Dallas four years ago. That game is one of just five in NFL history in which a team scored 48 or more points and lost. The Over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings with an average O/U line of 43 points. Denver has won the past five meetings with each of the past four games decided by 7 points or fewer.
There are all sorts of lines on this game and a really good example of shopping around for the best possible line. As of Wednesday evening, I see Dallas -1 one at one sportsbook. I see Dallas -2 and 2.5 at several books. You can also get Dallas -3 at another. The public will be backing the Cowboys and 74% of the bets have been placed on Dallas at a very reputable Las Vegas sportsbook as of Wednesday evening. The line should really be Dallas -2 and the total 44 in my opinion. Dallas brings in the better offensive line while the Broncos boast the better front 7. This should be one heck of a game!
Trevor Siemian has a 4-0 career record in September, with the Broncos averaging 27 points per game. He has a completion percentage of 65% in September, compared to 57% in all other months. Trevor looked solid once again and should benefit by playing at home in back-to-back weeks. This is a role that Denver has cashed a lot of tickets in the past. Dallas was able to move the ball on a very good defense last week and now must face another stingy stop unit. Since the start of last season, the Broncos’ defense is allowing a scant 71.4 passer rating, lowest among all teams. In that same time span, Dak Prescott ranks 3rd in passer rating (103.8) in all of football.
The Broncos are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against NFC East opponents. The Broncos have #1 home field advantage in terms of wins since records have been kept. They are 152-62 straight-up when playing in Denver since 1993! More recently, the host is 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less of late. It also helps that the Underdog is on a 45-27 ATS run in Cowboy games of late.
Jeff’sPick to Cover the Point Spread: OVER 42 points & slight lean Denver +2.5
Denver is banged up in the secondary and the Cowboys are very young, albeit talented on the back end. I really thought this total would be at least 44 points. At the current total of 42, I see some value on the Over. I like the Broncos at +3 right now. Slight lean at +2.5 or less. The Cowboys will have to adjust to the playing conditions as they play very few games at high-altitude. Can they do it? We’ll see!
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