Green Bay at Chicago Week 17 ATS Pick

by | Dec 30, 2020 | nfl

Green Bay Packers (12-3 SU, 9-6 ATS) at Chicago Bears (8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS)

NFL Week 17

When: Sunday, Jan. 3 at 4:25pm ET

Where: Soldier Field - Chicago, IL

TV: FOX

Point Spread: GB -5.5/CHI +5.5 (Get the best sign up bonus - 100% Bonuses!)

Over/Under Total: 52

Week 17 is going to finalize the last details of the NFC Playoff draw, and there is a lot at stake when Green Bay takes on Chicago. The Packers will sew up the No. 1 seed with a win - something they have done in eight of the last ten against Chicago - and the Bears will guarantee their Wild Card spot with the upset. Chicago can also back into the playoffs with an Arizona loss, but the Bears will not know their fate ahead of kickoff with the Cards also playing in late slate. Aaron Rodgers is 20-5 in his career against Chicago, with one of those losses coming in a game where he left in the first quarter due to injury. It has been death, taxes, and Rodgers for Chicago, but this Bears team is noticeably improved from the team that lost to Green Bay in Week 12, with Chicago winning three of four since while scoring 35 points per game over that stretch.

Trend Watch

Green Bay has been good against good competition, going 9-4 against the spread in their last thirteen against an opponent with a winning record. They have also been excellent at Soldier Field with a 16-5 ATS mark over the last 21 in Chicago. The Bears have fourteen ATS wins in their last twenty games as a home dog but are just 2-6 against the spread in the last eight division contests. The OVER has hit in six straight Green Bay games in the month of January and in four of the last five when GB plays an NFC North opponent. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six Chicago games inside the division, but the UNDER is 14-4 in the last eighteen at Soldier Field overall. In this series, the favorite has run up a 14-6 record in the last twenty meetings. The early betting is close to an even split, with Chicago getting about 53% of public bets with a similar slight edge with bets for the OVER.

Top of the Heap

Green Bay emerged from Week 16 as the class of the conference after downing Tennessee by a 40-16 margin. Most impressively, the Pack limited Derrick Henry to 98 yards in a matchup that seemed to favor the Titans. That was the fifth consecutive win for Green Bay, and they are against the top offense in the league at 31.6 points per game. Aaron Rodgers is sixth in the league in passing, but his 44 touchdown passes are six more than anyone else and MVP-worthy considering his scant five interceptions. Green Bay has committed the fewest turnovers in the league and leads in the underrated metric “time of possession” to check all the boxes that the best overall offense would. Aaron Jones leads the 8th ranked rushing attack and enters the week as a 1,000 yard back, and A.J. Dillon is fresh off a 124-yard effort last week. Davante Adams has 1,328 receiving yards and sits atop the NFL with 17 receiving touchdowns. TE Robert Tonyan is second on the team with 50 receptions and ten touchdowns. Rodgers has found ten different receivers for scores this season. This defense is just 26th in takeaways but has proven difficult to move the ball against and ranks 7th in total yards allowed. The standout is Za’Darius Smith and his 12.5 sacks, but the secondary in general has been impressive as S Adrian Amos leads the team in tackles. Jaire Alexander and Darnell Savage each have twelve pass defenses, and that secondary duo has combined for five of the team’s ten interceptions. This defense is at its best with a lead, something Chicago found out last time when Green Bay’s defense used a few big plays to turn a 13-3 early lead into a 41-10 margin by the end of the third quarter.

More Picks: Jags vs. Colts Total Pick >>>

Hot at the Right Time

Chicago looked absolutely dead-in-the-water a few weeks ago after losing six games in a row, but three straight victories have them on the playoff doorstep. Looking back, perhaps one-score losses to Tennessee, New Orleans, and Indianapolis actually show that Chicago has a bit more potential than their record implies. The recent positive results align with the solid play of Mitch Trubisky, who has thrown for ten touchdowns since returning to the starting lineup. David Montgomery has averaged 105 yards per game with Trubisky under center with six touchdowns over that span and crossed the 1,000-yard mark last week against the Jags. Allen Robinson leads the team with 100 catches and 1,213 yards, and TE Jimmy Graham has eight touchdown receptions to lead the team. The offense remains 25th in total yards and 18th in scoring, but the emerging contributions of guys like WR Darnell Mooney (50-538-4) and TE Cole Kmet have given the Bears some more versatility in the playmaking department. The defense is just outside the top-ten in total yards allowed and enters the week ranked 9th in scoring at 22.3 points per game. The run defense has been suspect at times, but Roquan Smith leads the league with 95 solo tackles and has two interceptions. CB Jaylon Johnson leads the team with 15 pass defenses in just 13 games, but he remains questionable with a shoulder injury. CB Buster Skrine is also questionable with a concussion. Khalil Mack leads the team with eight sacks but has not recorded a sack on Aaron Rodgers since the 2018 season.

Green Bay Finishes with Style

The 41-25 Green Bay win in Week 12 is actually a bit of an anomaly, with eight of the previous ten games in this series decided by eight points or fewer. The Packers showed some serious playmaking in that contest and did so again last week against Tennessee in poor weather. Green Bay does not fear playing in Chicago, and even this newly productive version of the Bears does not appear to be on the level of the NFC North Champs. I think the best that Chicago can hope for is a back-and-forth contest that has them in the game at the start of the fourth quarter. Even then, I think Green Bay is too polished and in-sync on offense to not cover the 5.5 points. It took Green Bay until 2017 to get the lead in this head-to-head series, but they have been the big brother in the Rodgers era, and that trend continues with another multi-TD performance by A-Rod and a 31-20 Packers win.

Ted Walker’s Pick to Cover the Spread:

Green Bay

Top of the Heap

Green Bay emerged from Week 16 as the class of the conference after downing Tennessee by a 40-16 margin. Most impressively, the Pack limited Derrick Henry to 98 yards in a matchup that seemed to favor the Titans. That was the fifth consecutive win for Green Bay, and they are against the top offense in the league at 31.6 points per game. Aaron Rodgers is sixth in the league in passing, but his 44 touchdown passes are six more than anyone else and MVP-worthy considering his scant five interceptions. Green Bay has committed the fewest turnovers in the league and leads in the underrated metric “time of possession” to check all the boxes that the best overall offense would. Aaron Jones leads the 8th ranked rushing attack and enters the week as a 1,000 yard back, and A.J. Dillon is fresh off a 124-yard effort last week. Davante Adams has 1,328 receiving yards and sits atop the NFL with 17 receiving touchdowns. TE Robert Tonyan is second on the team with 50 receptions and ten touchdowns. Rodgers has found ten different receivers for scores this season. This defense is just 26th in takeaways but has proven difficult to move the ball against and ranks 7th in total yards allowed. The standout is Za’Darius Smith and his 12.5 sacks, but the secondary in general has been impressive as S Adrian Amos leads the team in tackles. Jaire Alexander and Darnell Savage each have twelve pass defenses, and that secondary duo has combined for five of the team’s ten interceptions. This defense is at its best with a lead, something Chicago found out last time when Green Bay’s defense used a few big plays to turn a 13-3 early lead into a 41-10 margin by the end of the third quarter.

More Picks: Jags vs. Colts Total Pick >>>

Hot at the Right Time

Chicago looked absolutely dead-in-the-water a few weeks ago after losing six games in a row, but three straight victories have them on the playoff doorstep. Looking back, perhaps one-score losses to Tennessee, New Orleans, and Indianapolis actually show that Chicago has a bit more potential than their record implies. The recent positive results align with the solid play of Mitch Trubisky, who has thrown for ten touchdowns since returning to the starting lineup. David Montgomery has averaged 105 yards per game with Trubisky under center with six touchdowns over that span and crossed the 1,000-yard mark last week against the Jags. Allen Robinson leads the team with 100 catches and 1,213 yards, and TE Jimmy Graham has eight touchdown receptions to lead the team. The offense remains 25th in total yards and 18th in scoring, but the emerging contributions of guys like WR Darnell Mooney (50-538-4) and TE Cole Kmet have given the Bears some more versatility in the playmaking department. The defense is just outside the top-ten in total yards allowed and enters the week ranked 9th in scoring at 22.3 points per game. The run defense has been suspect at times, but Roquan Smith leads the league with 95 solo tackles and has two interceptions. CB Jaylon Johnson leads the team with 15 pass defenses in just 13 games, but he remains questionable with a shoulder injury. CB Buster Skrine is also questionable with a concussion. Khalil Mack leads the team with eight sacks but has not recorded a sack on Aaron Rodgers since the 2018 season.

Green Bay Finishes with Style

The 41-25 Green Bay win in Week 12 is actually a bit of an anomaly, with eight of the previous ten games in this series decided by eight points or fewer. The Packers showed some serious playmaking in that contest and did so again last week against Tennessee in poor weather. Green Bay does not fear playing in Chicago, and even this newly productive version of the Bears does not appear to be on the level of the NFC North Champs. I think the best that Chicago can hope for is a back-and-forth contest that has them in the game at the start of the fourth quarter. Even then, I think Green Bay is too polished and in-sync on offense to not cover the 5.5 points. It took Green Bay until 2017 to get the lead in this head-to-head series, but they have been the big brother in the Rodgers era, and that trend continues with another multi-TD performance by A-Rod and a 31-20 Packers win.

Ted Walker’s Pick to Cover the Spread:

Green Bay Packers minus the points! Note: Did you know that you can bet up to 19 point NFL teasers at BetAnySports? You can also select whether ties win, push or lose! But that’s not the best part of BAS! You can bet on sides and totals at -105 odds! Click here for a better wagering experience!

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