Indianapolis Colts vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick 12/8/19

by | Dec 3, 2019 | nfl

Indianapolis Colts (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS)
When: Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL

Point Spread: IND +3 / TB -3 (BetAnySports)
Total: 47.5

Power Ratings: Tampa Bay -5

Takeaways From Week Thirteen

The Colts come into this game on a two-game losing streak, going 1-4 SU over their last five outings. Most recently, Indianapolis was defeated at home last Sunday by divisional rival Tennessee. Closing as a one-point favorite, the Colts were dispatched in their own barn by a score of 31-17. Overall, Indianapolis is 2-3 ATS in their last five contests. The Buccaneers step into this game by way of a two-game winning streak while their counterparts head into this match on a two-game skid. Overall, the Bucs have gone 3-1 SU in their last four games. Most recently, the Buccaneers took to the road to face off with cross-state adversary Jacksonville. Closing as a three-point road favorite, the Bucs made quick work of the Jags and took its backers to the window with a 28-11 win. The Buccaneers now stand 2-0 ATS in their last two contests after going coverless for six consecutive matches.

How the Public is Betting the Indianapolis- Tampa Bay Game

58% of the public is in the Buccaneers here as the field-goal favorite. Mirroring this present consensus position, Tampa Bay is now laying an extra point to the visitors since opening as a two-point favorite.

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The Historical

Indianapolis and Tampa Bay last met in 2015 as a result of cross-conference scheduling. In the previous meeting between both sides, the Colts curated hosting duties. Indianapolis would defeat Tampa Bay by a score of 25-12 to cover easily as a three-point favorite.

Betting Trends

Overall, the Colts have been a profitable selection in this series. Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between both parties. For those that play the Over/Under, the Over has gone 5-2 ATS in the previous seven contests between the Buccaneers and Colts.

Injury Concerns

Heading into this cross-conference clash, the Buccaneers and Colts have not listed an emergent injury concerns to key personnel.

Why We Like Tampa Bay To Cover

Some other sports betting sites would imply that the Buccaneers are indeed undervalued here and laying fewer points than they should. I would be in agreement with this premise. Initially, I was tempted to take Indianapolis on the Money Line, given the fact that the Bucs had opened as a small favorite. That all changed when I read about Indy’s cover streak against Tampa currently and also that the Bucs have won just one game in their own stead this season while having yet to cover in Tampa Bay. As a result of Tampa being a liability at home and in this series for that matter, the Bucs are in a position to be played at a favorable number, whether that be as an inflated underdog or short-sold favorite. The fact that Indianapolis is 3-1 ATS on the road this season, this makes the likelihood of such an event is even more probable since Indy has been so kind to takers outside of Indianapolis. As a result of both circumstances, I like Tampa Bay’s prospects of offering value here, and all we are asked to do is lay a field goal. Since Tampa has won their last two games by an average of 15 points, the Bucs can be primed to earn their first ATS win of the season.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Tampa Bay -3

Indianapolis’ offense is marred in inconsistency as they have scored no more than 17 points in three of their last four contests. Contrarily, Tampa Bay’s offense has eclipsed the 28-point threshold in four of their last five matches. As a result, I am hard-pressed to believe that Indianapolis will be able to hang with Tampa Bay in terms of scoring, and the Bucs can outgun the Colts convincingly. In furtherance of this narrative regarding Indy’s inconsistency, there is a boom or bust element to Indianapolis’ game as a whole. This is the same team that upset the Kansas City Chiefs but failed to get by the Miami Dolphins. We don’t know which Colts team will be showing up for this one, but I can bank on Tampa Bay coming to play with their mojo shifted into high gear. I have no objection to laying Tampa Bay with a field goal. After all, I can see the Bucs winning this game by a touchdown and covering comfortably.

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