Jets vs. Bills: Can New York Cover the Spread in Week 17?

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills, 12/29/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 29
Where: Highmark Stadium
TV: CBS

Point spread: NYJ +9.5/Buff -9.5
Money line: NYJ +385/Buff -500
Total: 47.5

 
The Buffalo Bills can no longer earn the top seed for the upcoming AFC playoffs, so they’ll try to lock up the No. 2 spot when they host the rival Jets on Sunday afternoon at Orchard Park.
 
The Bills can’t catch 15-1 Kansas City following the Chiefs victory over Pittsburgh Wednesday. But Buffalo can hold off Baltimore for that No. 2 seed with a win over New York on Sunday.
 
Meanwhile, the Jets are relegated to playing spoiler from here on out.
 

NFL Betting Odds

 
The Week 17 NFL betting market opened Buffalo at -10 for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 47. Early betting action then dipped that line to -9.5.

Jets Betting Preview

 
New York failed to back up its victory at Jacksonville two weeks ago, losing at home to the Rams last Sunday 19-9. The Jets scored the first touchdown of the game and still led 9-6 through three quarters. But New York fell down for good with 10 minutes left and generated nothing offensively from there to take its 10th loss over its last 12 games.
 
The Jets actually out-gained Los Angeles 321-242 but lost the turnover battle 2-1, which cost them seven points. New York also failed three times on key 4th downs and missed an extra point and a field goal.
 
In other words, more of the same.
 
Two games ago, New York beat Jacksonville 32-25. But prior to that, the Jets lost four games in a row. And it’s almost always the same story; a few plays here and there from victory. In fact, of New York’s 11 losses this season, seven came by six points or less.
 
At 4-11 overall, the Jets are playing out the string on a very lost season.

Bills Betting Preview

 
Meanwhile, Buffalo came off a rather uninspiring 24-21 win over New England last Sunday. The Bills, favored by 14 points, gave up the first 14 points of the game. Buffalo rallied – with help from the Patriots – to score the next 24 and eased home from there but never came close to covering that spread.
 
The Bills actually got out-gained by New England 379-324 but won the turnover battle 3-1, creating a +13 points differential.
 
Last week was the first time since Week 6 against these Jets that Buffalo did not score at least 30 points.
 
Two weeks ago, the Bills racked up 559 yards of offense and won 48-42 in Detroit. And that game wasn’t as close as that final score might indicate. But three weeks ago, Buffalo gave up 457 yards of Rams offense and lost 44-42.
 
So the Bills are playing some crazy games as of late.
 
At 12-3 overall Buffalo is already in the playoffs, just trying to secure that No. 2 seed and perhaps earning a light week to finish the regular season.
 
On the injury front, Buffalo played without four defensive starters last week, and three of them are still listed as questionable for Sunday. On the other sideline, New York lists three starters along the offensive line and three defensive starters, as Q? Bettors might want to consult later reports before getting down on this game.
 

By the Numbers

 
New York averages 308 YPG on offense this season, just 89 on the ground. Defensively, the Jets are holding opponents to 310 YPG, which is 122 on the ground.
 
Buffalo is averaging 367 YPG on offense and 134 rushing while allowing 348 YPG on defense and 118 rushing.
 

Jets-Bills Recent History

 
Buffalo is 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS over the last nine meetings in this rivalry. But Sunday will only be the second match-up between Allen and Rodgers as a Jets. The Bills took the first meeting earlier this season, 23-20 down at MetLife in October.
 
Buffalo led that game 20-10 in the second quarter, then allowed New York to tie it at 20-20 in the third. The Bills finally took the lead for good with four minutes left and hung on for the win.
 
That game played very even all over the stat sheet; the difference came when the Jets had a touchdown nullified by penalty in the third quarter, then bounced a subsequent field goal off an upright.
 
Also, that game sneaked over a total of 42.
 

NFL Betting Trends

 
Buffalo is out-rushing opponents this season by 16 YPG; New York is getting out-rushed by 33 YPG. Teams that win the ground battle this season are covering the spread 66 percent of the time.

Totals Report

 
The overs are 8-6 in Jets games this season, which are averaging 42 total points.
 
The Over is 9-5 in Bills games, which are averaging 55 points.
 
The Under is 5-1 over the last six meetings between these teams.

Free NFL Betting Pick

 
Buffalo is the better team in this match-up – we’re not exactly going out on a limb here – and should win this game outright. However, that Bills defense is a bit suspect; even New England, with its No. 29 offense, produced 379 yards last week. Meanwhile, New York, while losing, is playing a lot of close games. And they played Buffalo tough earlier this season. We’re expecting a close one here, too. We’ll take the Jets plus the points.