Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns Pick ATS

by | Oct 28, 2020 | nfl

Las Vegas Raiders (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (5-2, 3-4), 11/1/20

Time: 1 pm ET

Where: FirstEnergy Stadium

TV: Fox

Point spread: LV +2.5/Cle -2.5 (Intertops Sportsbook - 200% Bonus! Deposit $25, get $50 FREE! Must use bonus code ROOKIE200)

Money line: Raiders +125/Browns -150

Over/Under: 53.5

We might learn a lot about the Cleveland Browns character when they host the Las Vegas Raiders Sunday afternoon. The Browns just came from behind to avoid getting upset by a supposedly inferior opponent last week and lost a key offensive weapon in the process. Now they’re faced with another game they’re supposed to win. Just how good is Cleveland? And how are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 8 NFL betting odds opened Cleveland at -3 over Las Vegas, with an over/under of right around 55.5. Early betting action then slipped that spread to -2.5 and knocked two points off that total.

Raiders vs. Browns Set-Up

Las Vegas is 3-3 on the season after losing at home to Tampa Bay last week 45-20. But that game was a little closer than that final score would indicate. The Raiders drove their first possession of the game 70 yards to a touchdown, led 10-7 well into the second quarter but gave up two quick Tampa scores to trail 21-10 at the half. Vegas then rallied to within 24-20 early in the fourth but gave up the last 21 points of the game, creating that misleading final score.

The Raiders also lost ATS as four-point home dogs.

On the day, Las Vegas got out-gained by the Bucs 454-347 and lost first downs 29-19.

The Raiders have now been out-gained in four of their six games this season, but they’ve also out-rushed four of six foes. And they’re 3-1 both SU and ATS when they win the ground battle.

Three weeks ago, Las Vegas upset the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs in Kansas City 40-32. So the Raiders are capable of playing good ball against quality opponents on the road.

At 3-3 overall, Las Vegas already trails division-leading KC by 2.5 games in the AFC West.

Cleveland, meanwhile, is 5-2 after outlasting Cincinnati in a crazy game last week 37-34. The Browns spotted the Bengals the first seven points of the game and trailed 17-10 at the half. Cleveland then drove the opening possession of the second half 75 yards to a touchdown and a 17-17 tie. Then, over the next 16 minutes of the game, the Browns trailed 20-17, led 24-20, trailed 27-24, led 31-27, then trailed 34-31 with 1:06 to go. But Cleveland then drove 75 yards again for a game-winning Baker Mayfield TD pass with 11 seconds left for the win.

However, Browns kicker Cody Parkey missed the final extra points attempt, handing Cleveland financial backers a brutal loss, giving up 3.5 or four points against the spread.

For the day, the Browns got out-gained by Cincinnati 468-398 and lost time of possession by a 33:27 split. They just made one more big play than the Bengals.

Cleveland has now been out-gained five times in seven games this season, but it’s also out-rushed six of seven opponents. The Browns are 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS when they win the ground battle this season.

At 5-2 overall, Cleveland sits in third place in the AFC North, a game and a half and a tie-breaker behind Pittsburgh.

The really bad news to come out of Cleveland last week is the knee injury suffered by WR Odell Beckham, which knocks him out for the season. He had accounted for 400 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns.

These teams met most recently two seasons ago, a wild 45-42 Raiders overtime victory in Mayfield’s first NFL start. That game blew past its over/under of 44.5, as the teams combined for over 1,000 yards of total offense.

NFL Betting Trends

  • The Raiders are 42-58 SU, 48-50-2 ATS with Derek Carr as the starter at quarterback.
  • The Raiders are 14-24 SU, 17-21 ATS over the last two-plus seasons under Coach Gruden.
  • Cleveland is 17-19 SU, 14-20-2 ATS with Baker Mayfield as the starter at QB.
  • Home teams are 53-51 SU, 46-57 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 68-35 SU but only 45-57 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 5-0-1 in Raiders games this season, which are averaging a healthy 61 total points, against an average over/under of 50.
  • Overs are 5-2 in Browns games this season, which average 60 points against an average O/U of 49.
  • Overs are 54-49 in the NFL this season, but the unders are 23-17 over the last three weeks.

Free NFL Pick

Cleveland may be without Beckham, but Carr is listed as questionable for Las Vegas. In fact, both these teams are banged up. The Browns are 4-1 over their last five games while the Raiders are 1-3 over their previous four. Also,Cleveland owns the better running game and the better run defense. Finally, they only need a field goal for the cover. Our faith in the Browns is budding; we’ll take Cleveland, minus the short spread. Bet your Raiders/Browns pick FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook!

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