Lions at Browns Week 11 Odds & Pick

by | Nov 18, 2021 | nfl

Detroit Lions (0-8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (5-5, 5-5), 11/21/21

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 21

Where: FirstEnergy Stadium

TV: Fox

Point Spread: Det +11/Cle -11 (Learn how to bet on games at -105 odds instead of -110!)

Total: 44

The Browns are coming off a terrible blow-out loss while the Lions are coming off their first non-loss of the season, heading into this NFL inter-conference bout slated for Sunday afternoon in Cleveland. The Browns also opened as double-digit favorites on the betting line for this one, then got bet up from there.

How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 11 NFL betting odds opened the Browns as 10-point favorites over the Lions, with an over/under of right around 45.5. Early betting action then bumped that spread to -11 and dipped that total to 44.

Any gamblers out there thinking Detroit might win this game outright could get a price of around +400 on the NFL betting money line.

Detroit Betting Preview

The Lions are 0-8-1 on the season after playing the Steelers to a 16-16 tie in Pittsburgh last week. Detroit let the Steelers drive the opening possession of the game 83 yards to a touchdown but rallied to take a 10-10 tie into halftime. The Lions then scored the first six points of the second half - they missed an extra point - before allowing Pittsburgh to tie the game with a pair of field goals. Detroit then secured the non-loss by forcing a Steelers turnover late in the OT and covered the spread as a six-point dog.

In fact, while the Lions are win-less on the season, they’re also above .500 against the spread, at 5-4.

Detroit got out-gained by Pittsburgh 387-306 but out-rushed the Steelers 229-145 and won the turnover battle 3-0. It was just the second time this season the Lions didn’t turn the ball over; not coincidentally, they’re 2-0 ATS in those two games.

So Detroit’s been out-gained six times in its last seven games, although it’s also out-rushed two of its previous three opponents.

At 0-8-1, the Lions are just looking for something to build upon, toward a brighter future.

Cleveland Betting Preview

The Browns, meanwhile, are 5-5 on the season after getting blasted at New England last week 45-7. Cleveland actually scored the first seven points of the game, then went completely dead from there, allowing 45 straight Patriots points and whiffing ATS as a 2.5-point dog.

Playing without their top two running backs, the Brownies got out-gained by New England 452-217, out-rushed 184-99, and lost time of possession by a 34:26 split.

So Cleveland’s now been out-gained and out-rushed by three of its last five opponents.

At 5-5 overall, the Browns trail division-leading Baltimore by a game and a half in the AFC North, but they’re also only a half-game behind the Chargers in the battle for the seventh and last AFC playoff spot.

These two teams last met four seasons ago, a 38-24 Detroit victory at Ford Field. Matt Stafford, now with the Rams, quarterbacked the Lions that day against Deshone Kizer for Cleveland.

On the injury front, both these teams are banged-up, and both starting quarterbacks are listed as questionable. Bettors might be very wise to consult later injury updates before getting down on this game.

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NFL Betting Trends

  • Home teams are just 71-75 SU, 61-85 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 88-60 SU but just 63-85 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Double-digit favorites are 17-4 SU, 10-10 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

The Under is 6-3 in Lions games this season, which are averaging 45 total points.

The Overs are 6-4 in Browns games this season, which are averaging 47 points.

The Under is 82-66 in the NFL this season.

Zman’s Lions vs. Browns Prediction

Yea, Detroit stinks, but of its eight losses this season, five have come by 10 points or less, and another game was close before getting away. Also, while QB Goff is questionable for Sunday back-up, Blough might be an upgrade. Cleveland, meanwhile, is a puzzler and banged-up. And of the Browns’ five victories this season, only two have come by more than 10 points. This game looks like it could turn ugly, and 10+ points can be a ton in an ugly game. So while it’s not easy betting on a team that hasn’t won a game yet, we like the Lions, plus the points. Bet your Lions/Browns pick and ALL your Week 11 NFL predictions for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 at GTBets Sportsbook!

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