New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Pick

by | Last updated Jan 5, 2022 | nfl

New England Patriots (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (8-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)

NFL Week 18

Date/Time: Sunday January 9th, 2022. 4:25PM (EST)

Where: Hard Rock Stadium Miami, FL


Betting Odds:

Point Spread:NE -6.5/MIA +6.5 (Intertops – The oldest sportsbook on the web has recently changed ther name to Everygame!)

Total: 40

The Miami Dolphins’ 7 game winning streak was snapped with an embarrassing 34-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans last week. Despite a strong 2nd half of the season, the Dolphins’ playoffs chances were dashed with last week’s loss to the Titans, which set the stage for a season finale against the New England Patriots on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. Despite the momentum, which includes wins in seven of the last eight games and a 17-16 upset over the Patriots in week 1, the Dolphins will be relatively sizable 6.5 point underdogs when both AFC East rivals collide on Sunday.

Despite a 2-4 SU start to the season, Head Coach Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots have found their identity and are handling business as we have expected over the last two decades. In fact, the Patriots have won eight of their last ten games, which includes a 50-10 blowout over the Jaguars last week in one of the most complete performances of the season. At 10-6 SU, the Patriots are currently tied with the Bills for the top spot in the AFC East despite already clinching a playoff berth. Buffalo currently owns the tie-breaker advantage over New England. However, if the Bills were to fall to the Jets on Sunday, the Patriots door to the AFC East would swing wide-open which could mathematically still include the no. 1 overall seed in the AFC.

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Trends

  • The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in the last eight games
  • The Dolphins are 7-1 SU in the last eight games
  • The Dolphins have hit the “under” in seven of the last nine games
  • The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in the last eight games against New England
  • The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in the last ten games
  • The Patriots are 8-2 SU in the last ten games
  • The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in the last eight games on the road against Miami

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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

In the first meeting back in week 1, the Dolphins pulled out a 17-16 victory by taking advantage of a couple of costly turnovers. In reality, both offenses played poorly in that game, and it is safe to say that both teams have evolved tremendously since the start of the season. For the Patriots, QB Mac Jones is doing everything Belichick could have hoped for. Jones has protected the ball, made the throws to keep the chains moving, and the Patriots have relied on the defense/running game as the backbone of their success. The run-game in specific has looked strong recently with restored health between running backs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. If both running backs can keep their strong pace, Mac Jones should be able to find openings against a depleted Miami secondary in another advantageous match-up.

While Miami’s defense has vastly improved throughout the season, the injuries are starting to take a toll which is what we witnessed last week in the 34-3 loss to the Titans. In that game, Miami gave up numerous big plays against the run and against the pass. While I would expect a better effort this week, the circumstances for a season finale with no playoff hopes do not rule out another blunderous outing. If Miami does keep things close, the Dolphins offense has shown continuous improvement. QB Tua Tagovailoa has been playing well until last week’s off-performance against the Titans. WR Jaylen Waddle is turning into a star in the receiving game, and the combination of TE Mike Gesicki and WR DeVante Parker gives Miami plenty of weapons to target in the passing game. The match-up is not ideal this week for Miami, but Tua’s ability to keep plays alive has been the biggest x-factor for the offense during the 2nd half of the season. If that happens again on Sunday, I expect Miami to compete.

The Patriots have hit the “over” in 8 of the last 12 games

Jay’s Pick: I don’t believe Miami will go quietly in this game. I like a small bet on Miami +6.5 with a more sizable play on the over 40! Question: Have you seen the live betting platform at Bovada Sportsbook? It’s incredible!