New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Pick ATS

by | Dec 1, 2020 | nfl

New Orleans Saints (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS)

NFL Football Week 13

Date/Time: Sunday December 6th, 2020. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA

TV:FOX

Point Spread:NO -3/ATL +3 (Intertops - 200% Bonus! Details: Deposit $25, enter bonus code ROOKIE200 and they’ll give you a FREE $50 Bet!)

Over/Under Total: 46

Despite the temporary loss of Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees, the New Orleans Saints have not skipped a beat and recorded their 8th straight win last week thanks to a 31-3 blowout over the COVID-19 plagued Denver Broncos. Two weeks ago, backup quarterback Taysom Hill and the defense stepped up in a big way with a 24-9 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Hill rushed for two touchdowns and completed nearly 80% passing for 233 yards. Last week against the Broncos, Hill rushed for another two touchdowns, and the Saints also received a big boost from backup running back Latavious Murray, who carried the ball 19 times for 124 yards and two scores to keep the Saints momentum rolling.

At 9-2 SU, the Saints continue to hold onto the best record in the NFC. On Sunday, the Saints will meet with the Falcons for the 2nd time in 3 weeks when both teams meet inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. In the week 11 meeting, the Saints defense proved to be the difference against the Falcons. New Orleans forced QB Matt Ryan into multiple interceptions, stymied Todd Gurley to just 26 rushing yards, and kept the Falcons out of the endzone in a 24-9 victory. If you factor in last week’s win over the Broncos, the Saints’ defense has not allowed a touchdown in 11 quarters. Head Coach Sean Payton has brilliantly altered the Saints’ offense to be more conservative and establish ball control to help the defensive effort in Brees’ absence. Yet with those thoughts in mind, the Saints will be just 3 point favorites in their road trip to Atlanta on Sunday.

QB Taysom Hill to start against Falcons in week 13

In case you were wondering who will get the start this weekend for the Saints at quarterback, Taysom Hill will get his 3rd consecutive start on Sunday. Drew Brees was placed on the IR following the victory against the San Francisco 49ers. Brees suffered broken ribs on both sides of his body and a partially collapsed lung. Since he was placed on the IR following week 10, he will not be eligible for return until at least next week’s week 14 contest against Philadelphia. As a result, Taysom Hill will get the start under center. The Saints are expected to utilize another heavy dose of the ground attack, especially with RB Alvin Kamara still ailing from a foot injury. Kamara has not missed playing time to this point with his injury, but the Saints did dial back his touches by design last week. Therefore, Latavious Murray should get another uptick in touches against the Falcons on Sunday.

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Falcons offense provides underdog opportunity against Saints

In many ways, we know what to expect from New Orleans in Brees’ absence. Coach Sean Payton will put more focus on the ground game, attempt high probability passes, and try to establish ball control just as they did against the Falcons two weeks ago. While the Saints’ defense is playing well, I’m not sure bettors should be confident in a similar outcome. The Falcons’ Week 11 loss to the Saints was an apparent bump in the road for an offense that has been playing really well. The Falcons have won three of the last four games around the loss to the Saints with point totals of 25, 34, and most recently, a 43-6 blowout over the Raiders.

Despite the blowout win over the Raiders, the Falcons were without two of their biggest stars in WR Julio Jones (hamstring) and RB Todd Gurley (knee). Jones will be back on the field on Sunday, and Gurley’s progress will need to be monitored throughout the week. Even if Gurley is unable to go, Jones’ return will be big for an offense that has been playing well. QB Matt Ryan had an awful outing in New Orleans, but we should expect a better performance this time around, given his performance in recent weeks. By all stretches of the imagination, this is a match-up that the Falcons can win on both sides of the ball. Though Hill has looked solid behind center, the Saints have yet to play from behind or in less favorable situations. If Atlanta can jump out quick on Sunday, they will be live for the upset.

Saints vs. Falcons Betting Trends

  • The Saints are 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
  • The Saints are 5-1 ATS in the last six games against Atlanta.
  • The Saints have hit the “under” in four of the last five games
  • The Saints are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games on the road.
  • The Falcons are 4-2 ATS in the last six games.
  • The Falcons have hit the “under” in four of the last five games.
  • The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS in the last five home games against New Orleans.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Taysom Hill has looked solid in the last 2 starts given extremely advantageous game scripts. I think the Falcons can challenge that narrative this week and pull out the win. Take Atlanta +3. Editors Note: This game could be really tricky. You might want to consider watching for a quarter or so and then jumping in after you’ve seen a bit of the action. Bovada Sportsbook offers a KILLER live betting platform + a 50% bonus up to $250 when you sign up through our link! The class of the sportsbook industry!

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