New York Giants vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick
New York Giants (5-9 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS)
When: Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
By: Keith Franks, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYG +9 / IND -9
Power Ratings: Indianapolis -7
Takeaways From Week 15
The Colts enter in scorching form as they have now won seven of their last eight games. Very simply, Indianapolis is one of the hottest teams in the league at the moment as their eyes are fixed to earning their way into the playoffs. Most recently, the Colts made an example out of one of the hottest teams in the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys when they shut them out 23-0 at home last Sunday.
On the contrary, the Giants enter off a shutoff loss of their own last Sunday. The culprits were a team that the Colts know very well, fellow division running mate Tennessee. The Giants were defeated at home on their own soil 17-0 by the Tennessee Titans who like their AFC South rivals Indianapolis are also fighting for a playoff berth. The loss for New York ended a two-game winning streak. Nevertheless, New York is 4-2 SU over their last six outings.
How the Public is Betting the New York- Indianapolis Game
61% of the betting public have stepped in on the Colts in this market. Despite this, we have seen a half-point line movement downward from the opening figure of -9.5.
The Colts have won four of the last five meetings between these two teams dating back to 1999. Indy and New York meet every four years by virtue of cross-conference scheduling. Most recently, Indianapolis defeated New York 40-24 as three-point favorite in the Meadowlands when they last met in 2014.
Giants number-one wide receiver Odell Beckham is listed as day-to-day for Big Blue’s meeting with the Colts on Sunday. Known for his acrobatic catches and blazing speed, OBJ is a game-changing weapon that can give the G-Men another big play threat outside of running back Saquon Barkley. The Giants will need all the help they can get against an explosive Indianapolis offense.
When New York Has the Ball
The Giants bode a pedestrian offense that produces a 20th-ranked 347.4 yards of total offense per game. Despite featuring a dynamic running back in Saquon Barkley who has gone for 1,155 rushing yards on the year and 13 touchdowns, the G-Men are owners of the 25th-ranked rushing attack accruing just 101.7 yards on the ground per game. New York averages 21.9 points per game (20th in the NFL). Big Blue will find no refuge against a Colts defense that is ranked in the top-10 in both total defense (341.5 yards per game) and scoring (21.4 points per game).
When Indianapolis Has the Ball
Colts quarterback Andrew Luck continues to orchestrate what is a MVP-caliber season with 3,951 passing yards on the season while also throwing 34 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions while completing 67.3% of his passes. As a result of Luck’s efforts, the Colts offense has been able to score an eighth-ranked 26.6 points per game while also producing a remarkable 381.5 yards of total offense per game (8th in the NFL). Luck has some weapons in his receiving game, including tight-end Eric Ebron who has 13 touchdown grabs on the season and 1,000-receiving yard wide-out T.Y. Hilton. The Colts who are a pass-heavy team with Luck at the helm will have a bit of a challenge as they are up against a 14th-ranked Giants passing defense giving up just 237.4 yards per game through the air. Nevertheless, Indianapolis on average generates a seventh-ranked 245.7 passing yards per game.
Though these two teams meet on four-year cycles, the Colts have covered in each of the four wins they earned against the Giants over the last five meetings. In all four of these scenarios, the Colts were the favorite. Overall, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings between these two combatants.
Weather will not be influential in this contest by virtue of the fact that Lucas Oil Stadium features a retractable roof. Chances are the Colts will keep it closed as temperatures outside will blustery as they are forecasted to hit 40 degrees at the most.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: New York Giants +9
What is an overreaction and how does one come to form? Well to begin the manner in which the Giants lost combined with how the Colts won and who they beat (Dallas) all contribute to a heightened possibility of an overreaction taking shape. What does it look like? It looks something like the Giants going from a 2.5-point underdog to a nine-point pooch (6.5 point swing overall) in just a week and Indianapolis going from low-range chalk as a field-goal favorite to potentially closing with their biggest amount of points laid this season as possible double-digit chalk. The fact that the general public is jumping aboard the Colts only provides more evidence of such an event taking shape. Will Indianapolis win this game? Almost certainly. However, the market is also playing upon the “must-win” angle for Indianapolis to keep its playoff hopes alive. For New York, their post-season dreams have already been vanquished. As a result, takers can also expect to pay a premium to back the Colts here but we digress that this same narrative has been the cause of many ripped tickets for punters everywhere. Take the points.