New York Giants (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS)
NFL Week 6
Date/Time: Monday, October 19, 2015, 8:30 pm EST
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pa.
TV: ESPN, DirecTV 206
by Badger, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYG +3.5/PHI -3.5
Over/Under Total: 50
With the NFC East still up for grabs going into week six of the NFL with all four teams in the division struggling to stay alive in the title chase, but we should get a better idea of which team is ready to step to the front of the pack when the New York Giants travel to Lincoln Financial Field to battle the division-rival Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.
The Giants currently sit atop the NFC East at 3-2 thanks in part to their nail-biting last-second victory over San Francisco in week five action last Sunday night, 30-27. Eli Manning hit Larry Donnell with the winning score with only 21 seconds left, allowing the G-men to keep their one game lead on the rest of the divisions chase pack sitting at 2-3 this season. After starting the season 0-2, the Giants have beaten Washington, Buffalo and the 49ers in the past three weeks and appear to have put their slow start to the regular season behind them.
The Eagles also have begun to show signs of brushing off an embarrassingly slow start to the season, winning two out of the last three weeks including their overdue breakout performance on offense last Sunday in their, 39-17, victory over New Orleans at the Linc. Already with a loss at home to Dallas in week two, Philly cannot afford to lose to anymore teams in the division if they want to be able win tiebreaker scenarios later in the season. Winning at home is a must, and with road games at Carolina and at Dallas coming up, this is the point in the Eagles schedule where they have to seize the moment.
Oddsmakers opened the NFC East battle on Monday Night Football with Philly as 4-point favorites at home. It didnt take long for the point spread to drop the hook to Eagles minus -3.5 as fans excited about the Giants last-second win hit the betting window early. But its still early (betting line wasnt released for this game until late on Monday at most sportsbooks and its still off the board at a few), so you can still find the number at minus -4 as well as -3.5.
The over/under total opened at 49.5 and moved up to 50 at many sportsbooks pretty quickly. There are even a few offshore sportsbooks that have moved the total a full point up to 50.5 already as the early steams appears to be heavily on the over.
Normally when you think of the NFC East you think of bruising running games with big running backs that carry the ball 20 to 25 times a game, but this isnt your daddys NFC East anymore. Both the Giants (91.2 ypg 26th in NFL) and the Eagles (93.2 ypg 23rd) have struggled to run the ball consistently this season, and the Eagles even went out and pilfered DeMarco Murray from another team in the division and it still doesnt seem to help. And it doesnt look like this week will get much better for either team on MNF, at least on paper, because both the Giants (allow 80.6 ypg 2nd) and the Eagles (96.8 ypg 10th) have been very strong at stopping the run.
Its no secret that this game will come down to the quarterback who makes the best decisions and out performs the other, and Giants fans have to be liking their chances in that matchup between Manning and the Eagles Sam Bradford. Bradford threw two picks in the win last week against the Saints and has six so far in 2015, but hell enjoy the fact that the Giants secondary is currently dead last in the NFL allowing 304 yards per game. Manning should also enjoy a big game, since the Eagles secondary isnt much stronger allowing 280 yards per game in the air (26th in NFL).
The road team has enjoyed a 6-2-1 ATS record of late in this yearly two-game series between the Giants and Eagles, but the Giants just havent been a good wager against the Eagles because New York is just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 head-to-head meetings with the Eagles. The best wager on Monday, when youre talking betting trends, just may be on the under. With just about all of the individual trends on the total for both teams strongly in favor of the over, its actually the under that is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams at the Linc. All five meetings in Philly since 2010 have stayed under the total, including the last two seasons when the total closed at 50.5 (in 2014 ironic?) and 49 in 2013.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Even though the Eagles scored 39 points last week, anyone in Philly will tell you it was a sloppy, underachieving 39 points. The Eagles just havent clicked yet, mainly because Bradford still doesnt look like hes mastered Chip Kellys scheme yet. I dont like the hook attached to the 3.5 point spread currently, so unless youre willing to pay extra juice to get it down to Eagles minus -3 Im not too sure about playing a side here. Im going to wait until the total stops climbing (hopefully it gets up to 51 or 51.5), then Im going to bet the under for Monday Night Football.
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