New York Jets (5-7 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (3-9 SU, 2-9 ATS)
NFL Week 14
Date/Time: Sunday, December 10th, 2017 4:05 PM EST
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium Denver, CO
by Keith, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYJ -1/DEN +1
The New York Jets will travel to the Mile High City to square off with the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado on Sunday, December 10th, 2017. The fixture will be televised for regional audiences on CBS with a scheduled kick-off time of 4:05 PM EST. The contest will pit the AFC East against the AFC West. The last meeting between both parties was in 2014 where the Jets hosted the Broncos in the Meadowlands to be defeated handily by a score of 31-17. The Orange Crush have won four of the previous five against Gang Green overall.
In the early going, the public has been all over the Jets as they came into this contest as an underdog initially. As a result of action on Gang Green, the Broncos are now a slight pup at home reflected in a 2.5-point line movement overall. Much of this can be attested to the Jets taking down the Chiefs at home last Sunday. The Jets offense would ignite over the Chiefs and result in New York defeating Kansas City in the Meadowlands by a score of 38-31.
The New York Jets have one of the most deceptive 5-7 records perhaps in the history of the NFL. The Jets were snubbed on two controversial touchdowns involving the same player (Austin Sefarian-Jenkins) this season. Had the call gone in an opposite direction the Jets could possibly own wins over Carolina and New England to boost their record to 7-5. There are also the charted records of blown fourth quarter leads that New York was on the back end on several occasions. The list includes the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins. Once again, had New York taken care of business they would be sitting at 9-3 now if those two results went in their favor. While extrapolation is not always a sound prognostic or predictive tool, it can provide insights as to why New York is priced where they are and the public response as a result.
For Denver, the Broncos have had a nightmarish 2017. The Denver defense remains among the best in the NFL with the likes of linebacker Von Miller in their personnel. The problem for the Orange Crush is that they cannot get their defense off the field as the offense has been of little help. This is a team that has lost games at home to the likes of the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals. This is atypical given the fact the Broncos are known for having one of the most prolific home field advantages across the league. Since the retirement of Peyton Manning, the Broncos have had mighty struggles in finding a franchise quarterback to lead their offense. Whilst Manning is certainly a tough act to follow, the offense has been in shambles across the board. Considering the Broncos still have Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas lined up at wide receiver, the lack of production is a ghastly and abysmal pill for all to swallow.
The Jets spotting road points is a scenario that we are not too comfortable with. There was a reason why the Broncos opened as a favorite in this contest despite owning one of the worst records in the AFC. We will remind takers that this was no mistake. The Jets have won just one game on the road this year and that came against the Cleveland Browns. With this being said, the Jets were lucky to get out of the Dawg Pound with a win. They wont be so fortunate this time around. While the Jets are the favorite they were an initial underdog; any time the public smothers a pooch this raises a red flag be that the propensity is to back the favorite even if by slight margins. Therefore, we will go ahead and back Denver in response to what is likely a huge overreaction and corresponding overlay. With respect to this, Denver is worth a look on the Money Line here. In trading in the point for an outright win, a Money Line proposition can spare us the additional 5% in vigorish for a point that will likely be insignificant.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: DENVER -105 (Money Line) - Bet your pick for this game using your credit card at an online bookie where it WILL work for deposits and where you’ll receive a generous 50% signup bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $250! (Example: Deposit $250 and they’ll give you an extra $250 FREE!) Find this great offer at Bovada Sportsbook.