NFL Free Picks: Falcon vs. Saints Week 18

Atlanta Falcons (7-9 SU, 5-11 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (8-8 SU, 5-10-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 18

Date/Time: Sunday January 7th, 2024. 4:25 PM (EST)

Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans, LA

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: ATL +3/NO -3

Moneyline: Dirty Birds +150/Who Dat -170

Total: 42.5

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Without question, the NFC South has been the weakest division in the NFL this season. At times, three different teams have held control of the division, with each one seemingly unwilling to take full control. At 8-8 SU, the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are tied for the top spot in the division with just one game remaining in the regular season. The Saints are currently in the captain seat with the advantage in tie-breaking scenarios thanks to last week’s 23-13 victory over the Buccaneers. On Sunday, the Saints can punch their ticket to the playoffs if they can capture a victory over the Atlanta Falcons when the two teams meet inside Caesars Superdome.

If the Saints were to lose or even tie the Falcons, they could technically still make the playoffs if Tampa Bay also loses this weekend. However, the Buccaneers have an advantageous match-up with the Carolina Panthers, who have been the worst team in the NFL at 2-14 SU. Therefore, the Saints best chances to make the playoffs and secure the division will be focused on their late afternoon match-up with the Falcons. With that being said, the Falcons bested the Saints 24-15 in week 12 and reportedly still playing for Head Coach Arthur Smith’s opportunity to return next season. Needless to say, this will not be an easy win for the Saints, and odds makers have displayed that with a mere 3-point betting line in favor of New Orleans.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis

While I personally do not believe either one of these two teams is playing well, the Saints have the highest ceiling in terms of talent. The Saints’ defense has played well throughout the season despite the fact the offense has been a trainwreck. Offensively, New Orleans has struggled with inconsistency at the quarterback position, with Derek Carr behind center. Despite decent numbers, completing 67% on the season with 21 touchdowns and eight picks, Carr has failed to execute consistently, leading to many failed attempts to stay on the field. RB Alvin Kamara and WR Chris Olave remain the biggest bright spots on the team. However, both star players are banged up with injuries, and their availability for Sunday remains uncertain.

The good news for New Orleans’ offense is the fact that Atlanta’s defense may have packed it up for the season. Last week, the Falcons were shredded for 432 yards and 37 points by the Chicago Bears in an embarrassing performance. In that contest, QB Taylor Henicke tossed three interceptions in replacement of benched QB Desmond Ridder. There was thought the Falcons would turn back to Ridder again this week, but Henicke is still listed as the starter despite the fact he is battling an ankle injury. Either way, the Falcons have proven to be a failure in the passing game, which means their most legitimate path to victory surrounds their running attack. If there is a path toward attacking the Saints’ defense, it is on the ground. Still, Atlanta has provided minimal reasons to be optimistic in their offensive production. For this week’s road trip to New Orleans, I believe Atlanta will need to win the turnover battle and make a few big plays to overcome the offensive struggles.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends

• The Falcons are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games.
• The Falcons have hit the “under” in four of the last six games.
• The Falcons are 3-6 SU in the last nine games.
• The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in the last five games against New Orleans.
• The Saints have hit the “under” in 15 of the last 20 games.
• The Saints have hit the “under” in seven of the last nine games at home.
• The Saints have hit the “under” in five of the last six games at home against Atlanta.
• The Saints are 3-7 ATS in the last ten games against NFC opponents.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Prediction

Circumstantially, New Orleans should win this game. From a match-up perspective, New Orleans should also win this game. What could go wrong? Sarcasm aside, I’m taking the Saints, but I still lack confidence in their ability to put complete performances together. Consider this a low-medium confidence play.

Jay’s Pick: Take New Orleans -3.

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