NFL Week 4 Picks: Titans vs. Falcons

by | Sep 26, 2019 | nfl

Tennessee Titans (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday - September 29th -1:00pm EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA
TV:CBS
by Bob, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: TEN +4 / ATL -4 (GTBets)
Over/Under Total: 45.5

TENNESSEE TITANS AND ATLANTA FALCONS PREVIEW:

This Sunday in Atlanta, there is an NFC AFC game between the Tennessee Titans and the Atlanta Falcons. Both teams come into this game at 1-2 on the season, and both are in desperate need of a win. Although it is still early, dropping to 1-3 is not an ideal way to finish the first 25% of the season. In week three, Atlanta went into Indianapolis and once again laid a first half egg. The second half was much better, but it was too late as the Falcons lost to the Colts by a score of 27-24. The Titans in week three played a Thursday night game in Jacksonville, and they were completely humiliated and dominated by a score of 20-7. The huge question mark for the Titans is the play of their quarterback, Marcus Mariota. Entering the NFL and even after his first year, many saw Mariota as a future star, but now it is not looking like that. Mariota has not made any major strides at QB, and the word around the Titans camp is that Mariota will not receive a huge contract from Tennessee when that time comes. This game looks like the Falcons should coast, but Atlanta themselves have not been consistent either. Atlanta does come into this game as a four-point home favorite, but they will also have to make huge improvements if they plan on getting to 2-2 on the season.

HOW THE PUBLIC IS BETTING TENNESSEE AND ATLANTA:

As of midday Wednesday, the Atlanta Falcons were getting much of the love from the betting public. The Dirty Birds saw over 60% of the action while just around 36% liked Tennessee plus the points on the road. Both teams are 1-2 ATS as well as 1-2 straight up. Something has to give this Sunday.

WHY THE ATLANTA FALCONS WILL COVER THE SPREAD ON SUNDAY:

The Falcons have been absolutely bi-polar in 2019. In their two losses, both which were on the road, the defense looked slow, tackling was pathetic, and the penalties….well, as for the penalties, WOW. In week three against the Colts, the Atlanta Falcons committed 16 penalties for 128 yards. Of those 16 flags, 7 of them gave the Colts a first down, and of those 7, 4 of them were on third down in drives that Atlanta should have stopped them and got the ball back. This past week, Atlanta head coach, Dan Quinn, hired a full officiating crew to attend the Falcons practice and call penalties just as they would in the games. Quinn said that this was an attempt to make his younger players aware of what they can and cannot get away with on game days…we shall see if it works. So, if I am talking so negative about Atlanta, then why did I pick them you must be asking. It is simple: They are at home, and Tennessee is actually a worse team. Yeah, pretty basic reasoning but I truly believe the Falcons at home are a totally different team. Not only that, but Atlanta is really just a play or so away from being 2-1. Even with the 16 flags and the Matt Ryan interception deep in Indianapolis territory, the Falcons had a legitimate shot to still win the game on Sunday while coming up just three points short. There is no way that the Falcons will repeat that flag fest again and I honestly do not trust Mariota to be able to handle the crowd noise at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. Atlanta will need to play more sound defense from a fundamental standpoint, and those are things that Dan Quinn claims that they have worked to clean up all week in practice.

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HOW SUNDAY WILL PLAY OUT:

Tennessee is a very physical team, that is the one thing they got going for them. I see the Titans coming out and trying to run the ball down the Falcons throat. The only problem is that the Falcons know this and they will be prepared. The Falcons are more than likely going to sell out to stop the run and make Marcus Mariota beat them with his arm. Now don’t get me wrong, the Falcons secondary has not been world-beaters either, and now they are missing Safety Keanu Neal who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury (the second year in a row where Neal will miss the whole season). However, although Tennessee may score points, they will not be able to hang with the talented Falcons offense who finally started clicking in the second half in Indy. I see a close game at the half, but I like Atlanta to pull away late in the game. I foresee an Atlanta Falcons win with a score of something like 31-20. Matt Ryan will clean up his mistakes, the Falcons offense will keep rolling, and the defense will do just enough to help the Birds win and cover the four points at home.

WEATHER INFORMATION:

Although Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a retractable roof, it SHOULD BE OPEN. The day will be partly cloudy with temperatures at a low of 71 and a high of 90. Word is around game time the temps will be in the mid-80s in Atlanta.

Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE ATLANTA FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS AT HOME AND ALSO TAKE THE OVER. THIS GAME WILL BE BORDERLINE SHOOTOUT WON BY ATLANTA