Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Sunday, September 20, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Gillette Stadium
New England is a 5.5-point home favorite over Pittsburgh with a total of 42.5. My play is the Steelers getting the points.
The Patriots’ offensive personnel situation is the entry point here. New England has already lost A.J. Brown (ankle) for this game and is going to be short a lead running back with TreVeyon Henderson still nursing his own ankle injury. That’s a significant blow to the Patriots’ offensive firepower. Brown was Drake Maye’s most reliable downfield target last year and remains the type of player who forces defenses to double-cover him. Without him, Maye’s job gets harder, and Maye is already coming off a rough Week 1.
Look at Maye’s numbers from the Seahawks loss. He threw for just 5.4 yards per attempt with a 6.5 aDoT (average depth of target) and three interceptions. That’s the profile of a quarterback who couldn’t push the ball downfield and made critical mistakes. Now he faces a Steelers defense that just held Atlanta to 13 points and features T.J. Watt anchoring a legitimately elite pass rush. Watt made an immediate impact in Week 1, and against a Patriots offensive line that has struggled with protection, he’ll be a factor throughout the game.
Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, had a clean Week 1. He didn’t throw for gaudy numbers, but he had zero turnover-worthy plays and pushed the ball downfield with a 10.1 aDoT. That’s the calibrated, low-mistake approach the Steelers wanted from him. Rodgers doesn’t need to win a shootout — he just needs to keep the offense functional while the defense takes care of business. That template worked in Week 1 and should work again against a Patriots defense that has questions.
The Patriots’ Week 1 loss was ugly. Losing 13-10 at home against Seattle is one thing; losing while Sam Darnold got hurt on the first series is another. It suggests the Patriots’ offense couldn’t get anything going even when their opponent was compromised at quarterback. That’s a real red flag for Maye’s ability to move the ball consistently, and it means the Patriots probably won’t score more than 20-24 points in this game.
The math on 5.5 requires New England to win by 6+ points. Against a Steelers team playing physical, disciplined football with a competent quarterback and an elite defense, that’s asking a lot. Realistic outcomes: Patriots 21, Steelers 17 (4-point margin, Steelers cover +5.5); Patriots 24, Steelers 20 (4-point margin, Steelers cover); Patriots 20, Steelers 17 (3-point margin, Steelers cover); or Patriots 24, Steelers 17 (7-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover.
The Steelers can also win this game outright. They’re getting +190 to +200 on the moneyline, which reflects value in Rodgers being a legitimate NFL starter capable of leading a team to a road win. Even if Pittsburgh loses, getting 5.5 points against a compromised Patriots offense is a defensible number.
The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5. Bet your Week 2 NFL picks for FREE by scoring a massive 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!
