Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Pick

by | Jan 19, 2021 | nfl

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-5 SU, 10-8 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS)

NFC Championship Preview

Date/Time: Sunday January 24th, 2021. 3:05PM (EST)

Where: Lambeau Field Green Bay, WI

TV:FOX

Point Spread:TB +3.5/GB -3.5 (Find the best bonuses >>> Get a 100% real cash bonus! Double your deposit!)

Over/Under Total: 50.5

This Sunday’s NFC Championship Game will feature a historic collision among two of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks of all-time when Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers host Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lambeau Field. While obviously, this critical match-up goes beyond the quarterback match-up, it’s hard to ignore the allure of Rodgers vs. Brady with a Super Bowl trip on the line. The Packers (14-3 SU) have held the top spot in the NFC for the majority of the year and secured the NFC’s only first-round bye. The Packers’ No.1 rated offense has been nearly unbeatable this season, averaging 31.8 points per game.

However, the Packers’ potent offense has one major blemish on their 2020 regular season campaign, and that includes a 38-10 defeat against the Buccaneers in Tampa back in week 6. On Sunday, the Packers will get their opportunity for revenge at the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field in a battle between two of the NFL’s top offenses. While the majority of NFL enthusiasts expect a shootout between Rodgers and Brady, bettors should be prepared for a different game script that puts heavy emphasis on the defensive showdown in-store for the NFC Championship Game.

Brady’s struggles being overlooked

If you have kept up with the storylines over the last few weeks, Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady has been getting the majority of the credit for the Buccaneers’ recent success. While I don’t want to throw a shadow on any of Brady’s accomplishments, he has not been the reason for the success in recent weeks. Tampa Bay’s defense has played exceptionally well and created numerous turnovers that led to short-field scoring opportunities. If we want to be technical, Brady has actually struggled rather significantly in both postseason match-ups.

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Brady completed just 55% of his passes against Washington and just 54.5% against New Orleans last week. If you watched either game, Tampa Bay rarely stretched the field vertically and often delegated to short passes in the flats to move the football. To be fair, Brady’s overall numbers have been solid this season and really good considering the fact he is 43 years old. However, bettors should not overlook the fact that Brady’s numbers have been average at best against top tier competition. I’m just not convinced we will see a very different narrative this week unless the Buccaneers come up with several turnovers again, which is highly unlikely against the Packers’ highly-efficient offense.

Fading the trends

If you look at both the Buccaneers and Packers’ recent betting trends, you may notice that both teams have favored the over. The Packers won the NFL’s top offense averaging nearly 32 points per game, and have consistently performed well in late-season games, which involves eight straight hits on the “over” in the last eight games played in January. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s late-season surge has also been propelled by strong offensive play. The all-star cast of Brady, WR Antonio Brown, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin, and tailbacks Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones has finally started to put everything together. As a result, Tampa Bay has posted 31 points or more in their last five games, including two postseason match-ups.

While these trends definitely point to another offensive showdown, I truly believe the defenses in this match-up are being greatly disrespected. The major success from both the Packers and Buccaneers during the 2nd half of the season has been aided by the dynamic play of both teams’ defenses. The Buccaneers dominant defensive line surprisingly shut down the Packers in their week six meeting to prove this match-up will be anything but easy. I’m not saying the Packers will be held to a similar total, but I do believe scoring opportunities will be difficult to find. The Buccaneers surging offense looked fairly pedestrian against the Saints until the Bucs defense racked up several critical turnovers. Otherwise, the Bucs would have been held to a relatively low scoring number in that game. The point is if just one team struggles to move the football, this 50 point total will be difficult to reach based on the opposing defensive prowess.

Buccaneers vs. Packers Betting Trends

  • The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games.
  • The Buccaneers are 6-0 SU in the last six games.
  • The Buccaneers are 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings against Green Bay.
  • The Buccaneers have hit the “over” in 14 of the last 20 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Buccaneers have hit the “under” in four of the last five games against NFC North opponents.
  • The Packers are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games.
  • The Packers are 7-0 SU in the last seven games.
  • The Packers have hit the “over” in four of the last six meetings against the Buccaneers.
  • The Packers are 15-1 SU against the Buccaneers in the last 16 meetings at home.
  • The Packers have hit the “over” in 8 of their last eight games in January.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Under 50.5. Bet your TB/GB total pick and ALL your bets each day at -105 odds at BAS Sportsbook! Making the switch to reduced juice betting will save you THOUSANDS of bucks over the long haul! Click here to start betting cheaper today!

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