Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Spread Pick
Tennessee Titans (10-5 SU, 7-8 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (4-11, 5-10), 1/3/21
Time: 4:25 pm ET Sunday, Jan. 3
Where: NRG Stadium
Point spread: Tenn -7/Hous +7 (MyBookie - Deposit $100 get $100 FREE when you use bonus code PREDICT100)
Money line: Titans -355/Texans +265
The Tennessee Titans might own ten wins already this season, but they have not yet clinched a playoff berth, headed into their season finale against the AFC South rival Texans Sunday afternoon in Houston.
Tennessee could still make the playoffs even if it loses this game, but it would surely rather win a division title and host a wild-card game next week. The Texans, meanwhile, are playing this one for pride. How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 17 NFL betting odds opened the Titans as seven-point favorites over the Texans, with an over/under of 56. Early betting action then bumped Tennessee to -7.5, and that total to 56.5.
Tennessee vs. Houston Betting Preview
The Titans are looking to bounce back this week after getting bounced by Green Bay in the snow at Lambeau last week 40-14. Tennessee allowed touchdowns on the Packers’ first three drives of the game to trail 19-0 early in the second quarter, pulled to within 19-14 early in the third but came up empty from there and whiffed against the spread as a three-point dog.
The Titans got out-gained by Green Bay 338-260, out-rushed 234-156, lost time of possession by a 37-23 split and the turnover battle 2-1.
However, prior to last week, Tennessee had out-gained and out-rushed four of its previous five opponents, going 4-1 both SU and ATS along the way
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Two weeks ago, the Titans beat Detroit 46-25, covering at -9.5, and three weeks ago, they beat Jacksonville 31-10, covering at -7.5. And that’s exactly what Tennessee should do against inferior opponents like those, and probably Houston; shove the ball down their throats, hit a big play or two, win by three touchdowns and cover the spread.
At 10-5 on the season, the Titans are tied for the lead in the AFC South with Indianapolis, and they own the tie-breaker on the Colts based on the better divisional record. However, Tennessee has not yet even clinched a playoff spot. With a win, the Titans are division champs, and even with a loss, they could still get a wild-card berth, with some help. But why risk it?
On the personnel front Tennessee put both its kicker and punter on the virus list early this week, and who knows what might happen with that situation.
Meanwhile, Houston lugs a four-game losing skid into this season finale, after falling at home to four-win Cincinnati last week 37-31. The Texans, giving the Bengals 7.5 points, allowed Cincinnati to drive its first possession of the game 71 yards to a touchdown and trailed most of the day. Houston rallied to lead 31-27 with six minutes to go but immediately allowed the Bengals to drive 75 yards to another touchdown. The Texans’ last-gasp drive then ended with a lost fumble.
Houston produced 488 yards of total offense but gave up 540 yards of Cincinnati offense. The Texans also lost time of possession by a 36:24 split and committed the only turnover of the game.
Houston has now been out-gained eight of its last ten games and out-rushed in every one of those games.
Two weeks ago, the Texans lost to Indianapolis 27-20 when they fumbled the ball away in the Colts’ end zone in the final seconds. Three weeks ago, Houston stunk in a 36-7 loss at Chicago. And four weeks ago, the Texans lost to Indianapolis 26-20 when they fumbled the ball away at the Colts’ 2-yard line with a minute left.
At 4-11 overall, Houston is probably playing its last game under interim Coach Crennel.
Texans QB Deshaun Watson is listed as questionable for Sunday with a sore elbow/arm, but our guess is he’ll play.
Titans-Texans Recent History
These division rivals split their season series each of the last four years, both SU and ATS. Tennessee then took the first meeting between these teams this season back in October 42-36 in overtime. The Titans trailed that game 36-29 late but tied the game on a score with four seconds left, then won it with a touchdown on the first possession of OT.
Tennessee also came up with an unlikely cover at -4.
Also, that game played over a total of 52.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 120-119 SU, 116-122 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 157-81 SU, 104-133 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Home dogs are 52-42 ATS in the NFL this season.
Overs are 11-3 in Titans games this season, which are averaging 57 total points.
Under are 8-7 in Texans games this season, which are averaging 51 points.
Overs are 118-117 in the NFL this season.
Free NFL Pick
Tennessee looked terrible against the Packers last week; we expect a bounce-back effort here. Also, the Titans are out-rushing opponents by 37 yards per game this season, while Houston is getting out-rushed by 61 yards per game. And while JJ Watt can cajole and shame all he wants, the Texans just aren’t a very good team right now. We’ll take Tennessee, minus the points. Speaking of points… we’d like to take a second to make a strong one… There’s a 99% chance that you’re laying -110 when you bet on games. Why would you do this when you could be laying -105 at a better sportsbook? Imagine the savings you’d accrue over the course of a year! Or ten years for that matter! Spend 5 minutes and make the switch to BetAnySports! You’ll be so glad you did!
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