Tennessee Titans (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS)
NFL Wild Card Round
Date/Time: Saturday, January 6, 2018 at 4:20 P.M. EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
by Jerbeek, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Tenn +9/KC -9
Over/Under Total: 44.5
The Tennessee Titans go on the road to take on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium to kickoff the NFL playoff season. Tennessee qualified for the playoffs as the 5th seed after finishing 2nd in the AFC South division behind the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kansas City won the AFC West division to earn the 4th seed and a home field game. Tennessee needed a week 17 win to qualify after losing their previous 3 games. In week 17 Tennessee defeated Jacksonville in a low scoring game of 15-10. Kansas City clinched the division championship in week 16 and decided to rest several starters including QB Alex Smith and WR Tyreke Hill but still continued their 4 game winning streak defeating the Denver Broncos 27-24 in week 17. The Chiefs have had a tale of 2 seasons as they started out looking like the best team in the NFL when they started out 5-0 but then they lost 6 of their next 7 games before righting the ship with a 4 game winning streak to end the season. Tennesse will be making their first playoff appearance since 2008.
Tennessee is led by 3rd starting QB Marcus Mariota who has completed 62.0% of his passes for 3,232 yards, 13 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. The Titan rushing attack is a 2 headed approach with Derrick Henry and Demarco Murray. Henry has rushed for 744 yards on 4.2 yards per carry and Murray has 659 yards on 3.6 yards per carry. They have combined for 11 rushing touchdowns. Tennessee has been slightly below average as an offensive unit as they have averaged 20.9 points against teams that give up 22.5 points and they are averaging 5.4 yards per play against teams that give up 5.4 yards per play.
Chiefs QB Alex Smith started off the season looking like an MVP candidate but tailed off in the middle of the season. However, he has still been one of the leaders as he has thrown for 4,042 yards and 26 touchdowns while only allowing 5 interceptions. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing for the 2017 season with 1,327 yards and added 455 yards receiving and scored 11 touchdowns. WR Tyreke Hill has been become one of the most exciting players in the NFL with his big play ability as he is averaging 15.8 yards per catch and has a total 1,183 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Chiefs also have a major weapon at TE with Travis Kelce who has 83 receptions for 1,038 yards and 8 touchdowns. The Chiefs are averaging 25.9 points against teams who give up 22.0 points per game. They rush for 4.7 yards per play against teams that give up 4.2 yards and average 7.6 yards per pass attempt against teams that average 6.6 yards.
The Titans defense has also been a mostly average unit as they have allowed 22.2 points against teams that average 21.1 points. Much of their problem has been because the offense puts them in bad position because of turnovers because they are actually good against the run in allowing only 3.6 yards against teams who rush for 4.0 yards per play and overall they give up 5.2 yards per play to teams that average 5.3 yards per play. p>
Kansas City has given up 4.7 yards per rush against teams that average 4.2 yards per rush and this could be a huge factor in this game as I expect a heavy dose of running from the Titans. Overall the Chiefs have allowed 5.8 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 yards per play.
Jerbeeks Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Titans are fortunate to be in the playoffs as poorly as they have played recently. For the season they have been outscored by their opponents so they are fortunate to have a winning record. The Chiefs appear to be back to playing good football again and I expect some explosive plays from the offense and then the Titans will make some turnovers which should allow the Chiefs an easy victory. I look for the Chiefs to win by a score of 31-14 to advance to the Divisional round of the playoffs. My recommendation is to play the Kansas City Chiefs -9 points. Where are you betting this game? Does your bookie give you the the option to bet on games at -105 odds? NO! He’s charging you -110 (or more!) Sports betting is a game of edges. Don’t let the house get the edge on you! Start betting at discounted odds TODAY at 5Dimes Sportsbook!