Washington Redskins (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)
NFL Week 5
When: October 9th 2016, 1PM EST
Where: M&T Bank Stadium Baltimore, MD
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ravens -3.5
Over/Under Total: 45
The Redskins have won 2 in a row after dropping their first 2 games and their wins have been far from easy. They had a late INT to ice their first win of the season facing the Giants and then forced 3 turnovers in the 2nd half in their last game to beat the Browns. They head to Baltimore as a 3.5-point road underdog.
The Ravens suffered their first loss of the season in their last game and sit at 3-1. However, they may not be even that good. Their first 3 games came against teams that have a combined 3 wins. Their offense has been decent, but where they have really played well is on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 7th in the NFL in points allowed per game, 4th in pass defense, and 5th in run defense. That D will be tested this week, especially their secondary facing Kirk Cousins and a Washington passing offense that ranks 5th averaging 287 passing yards per game.
While Cousins did not have a huge game in the Browns win he was 21 for 27 for 183 yards with a TD and an INT. For a change the Redskins ran the ball well with RB Matt Jones galloping for 117 yards and a TD. Cousins has no lack of weapons on the outside with the likes of DeSean Jackson and TE Jordan Reed, but if the Skins can run the ball as well they will be tough to beat.
If you look at the stats for the Ravens vs. Raiders game you would think Baltimore got the W. They outgained the Raiders 412 yards to 261 yards, stuffed the run, and had 26 more plays. However, they were only 5 for 17 on 3rd down conversions and they were called for 5 offensive holding penalties. While they only gave up 199 passing yards they did give up 4 TD in the air.
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The Redskins are 1-0 on the road this season and dating back to last season they are not only 4-0 in their last 4 road games, but they covered the spread in all of those games as well. The Ravens loss to the Raiders was in Baltimore.
Washington may have to put on an offensive show to win, or force many turnovers, as their defense has really struggled this season. They only rank 26th in the league in pass defense and 30th in run defense.
Joe Flacco had a solid game against Oakland passing for nearly 300 yards with 1 TD and no INT. He got help from Terrance West, who rushed for 113 yards. If the Ravens can avoid turnovers there is a good chance these 2 can pad their stats with the issues Washington has had on the defensive side of the football.
The Ravens could not stop the Raiders in the red zone, as they went 3 for 3, and the Skins have to take advantage their and get TDs and not setting for field goals, especially if their D continues to struggle.
These teams have not met since the 2012 season in Washington where the Skins beat the Ravens 31-28 in OT.
The Redskins have only covered the spread in 1 of their last 5 games facing a team that has a winning record. The Ravens are only 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 home games
I like the Skins in this one, as Cousins will have a solid game and like last week Jones will help him out. The game will be a close one and a lot of points will go up on the board, but Washington will win to move over .500 and hand Baltimore their 2nd loss in a row.
Jasons Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Redskins +4.5
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