UFC 250 Picks – Main Event Fight Analysis

by | Jun 6, 2020 | mma

UFC 250 Picks

When: Saturday, June 6, 2020

Where: UFC Apex Center, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: PPV

Main Event Analysis:

In the first UFC title fight since this whole pandemic started, UFC Women’s Featherweight Champion Amanda Nunes battles challenger Felicia Spencer at the UFC Apex Center in Las Vegas on June 6. It doesn’t get much tougher for Spencer, as the up-and-coming challenger faces a woman in Nunes who has beaten virtually every big-name female fighter in the game. It’s a tall task for Spencer. Is she going to go the way of recent Nunes opponents or can she come up with something?

Amanda Nunes, 19-4 (13 KOs, 3 Submissions), (-565) vs. Felicia Spencer, 8-1 (2 KOs, 4 Submissions), (+390)

UFC Women’s Featherweight Champion Amanda Nunes takes on top contender Felicia Spencer in the UFC 250 main event. Nunes has really cleaned out the top women fighters from 135-145 pounds. Her current ten fight win-streak is one of the more impressive in the history of the sport, as she continues to build clear-cut Hall of Fame credentials. Spencer, meanwhile, is in just her fourth UFC fight. The former Invicta featherweight champ certainly has her work cut out. Will this be another demolition job for Nunes or will Spencer spring the upset, which would be one of the biggest in women’ UFC history?

Let’s get this out the way first—these are strange times. The location of the venue was named with just over a week before fight-night. Travel is weird, and the conditions are unlike any seen in the history of the sport. With the UFC having run a number of cards during the pandemic, We’ve seen the cards run well, but fighting in empty arenas has definitely been a different look. In other words, if looking for crazy things to happen, why not during these crazy times?

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That, of course, is built in the spirit of trying to find a path to victory for Spencer, who appears to be facing a quixotic task in her path in the form of Nunes. Spencer, 29, is a few years younger than Nunes, as the once-beaten challenger is, in fact, a rising commodity in the featherweight division. She also has the size, having fought almost all of her fights at 145 pounds, while Nunes has fought only once at this weight. And while that was a one-round KO over Cris Cyborg, it’s still just one fight at 145 pounds.

Not only is Nunes a champion in two divisions in the UFC at featherweight and bantamweight, but she is also undoubtedly the most-credentialed female fighter of all-time. A look at her record reads like a whos-who in female MMA fighting—wins over Germaine DeRandamie (twice), Valentina Shevchenko (twice), Miesha Tate, Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg, and Holly Holm. Her wins over DeRandamie, Tate, Rousey, Cyborg, and Holm coming in the first round only underline how dangerous she is. When she lets her hands fly, we’re looking at the most formidable female fighting force ever seen in an MMA cage. Her offense is devastating, and very few women have what it takes to walk through that storm. And when you see fighters who have had almost nothing but raging success fall dramatically and quickly to the fists of Nunes, it really speaks volumes.

When gauging a potential upset candidate for Nunes, Spencer checks some of the boxes, while other areas leave some huge questions. Having competed at lightweight and featherweight, with Nunes being a bantamweight with one featherweight appearance, Spencer is the bigger woman naturally. She has youth, still in her 20’s. And with an 8-1 mark, she hasn’t accrued a ton of mileage and is a very fresh fighter. Her one excursion into the big-time was a decision loss to Cris Cyborg. And while she lost to a woman that Nunes beat in the first round, going the distance with a legend who wins almost all her fights by finish shows a lot. It was a big jump in class, and the resilience and durability she showed in that fight could serve her well in this battle. The scores indicated dominance from Cyborg, but it was a competitive fight, with Spencer showing abundant grit, weathering Cyborg’s early onslaught, and even slicing open Cyborg’s eye with a well-placed elbow. In many ways, other than not getting the win, it was an ideal entrance-exam for Spencer into the deep waters in the UFC. She has since won a fight, stopping an opponent in February.

So sure, we see Nunes knocking out other star fighters in the first round. We see her punches are crisp and powerful, while she can deliver fight-ending kicks and she’s on a huge roll, riding a big crest of momentum into this fight. But let’s remember what happened to every fighter who was as dominant as Nunes is now. It ends at some point, and when it does, it is always unexpected. It’s always a shock that you didn’t really see coming. It’s hard to take a contrary stance on Nunes based on what we’ve seen recently.

While this type of arithmetic sometimes lacks accuracy, the fact that Cyborg out-struck Spencer, while Nunes blasted Cyborg out with strikes, doesn’t bode well for Spencer. With Nunes squaring up a lot when she digs in to deliver punches, Spencer will need to use a double-leg takedown to try to get Nunes to the mat, where she is obviously less-effective on her back. But that’s a pretty narrow path to victory—first with the prospects of all the stars lining up so that Spencer can execute that and also with the prospects of her keeping Nunes down long enough to do damage or control the fight.

Spencer showed a good chin against Cyborg. She can wrestle, and if the fight falls along those lines, she could make some good things happen. And with all the kookiness in the air, it adds another layer of weirdness that makes you think anything can happen. But I don’t see anyone beating Nunes right now. I’ll go with the champion.

My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Amanda Nunes at -565 betting odds. Spencer is a good fighter, but without an abundance of finishing power at this level, 25 minutes is a long time to survive with a killer like Nunes. As noted above, you can bet your UFC 250 picks FOR FREE by taking advantage of a special (unique to Predictem readers only!) 100% REAL CASH BONUS at one of the web’s best sportsbooks: MyBookie!