San Jose State Spartans at USC Trojans
Saturday, August 29, 2026
3:00 PM ET, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Saturday afternoon’s Week 0 opener at the Coliseum has one of the biggest spreads on the entire board, but the more interesting play is on the total, which has been moving up all week.
The Trojans are 38.5-point favorites over the Spartans with a total sitting at 59.5. This game opened with USC as a 35.5-point favorite and a total of 57.5. Since then, sharp money has pushed the spread three points toward USC and the total up two points. Both directions of that movement point to the same read — USC’s offense is going to put a lot of points on the board, and San Jose State’s defense doesn’t have the personnel to slow them down.
Let’s start with USC.
Lincoln Riley is entering his fifth year in Los Angeles, and this may be his most complete roster since arriving from Oklahoma. The Trojans went 9-4 last year and 7-2 in Big Ten play, and they’re ranked #14 in preseason polls with legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations. What matters most for handicapping this specific game is what USC returns on offense — all five offensive line starters, both leading rushers in King Miller and Waymond Jordan, and quarterback Jayden Maiava.
Maiava is the key piece here. He led the Big Ten in passing yards in 2025 with 3,711, threw 24 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, and finished second in the nation in QBR. He’s 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, an experienced starter with 31 college starts under his belt, and a legitimate Heisman Trophy dark horse for 2026. When your quarterback led the conference in passing yards a year ago and returns for his senior year with a fully loaded offensive line and skill group in front of him, Week 0 against a rebuilding Mountain West opponent is exactly the spot where the numbers get gaudy.
Then there’s what San Jose State brings to town.
The Spartans went 3-9 in 2025 under third-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo. Their defense finished 121st in FBS in scoring, giving up 32.5 points per game. Their pass defense was 115th in FBS. They gave up 25 rushing touchdowns and 18 passing touchdowns across the season, meaning opponents scored 43 touchdowns on them in 12 games. That’s not just a bad defense — that’s a defense that couldn’t stop many of the offenses they faced in the Mountain West, and now they’re heading to the Coliseum to face one of the best offenses in the Big Ten.
Niumatalolo brought in a large transfer portal class this offseason to try to fill the roster, but incoming portal players in Week 0 against a Big Ten opponent tend to look overmatched, particularly on defense where scheme continuity matters. SJSU is essentially rebuilding on the fly, and the transfer additions haven’t inspired confidence per multiple reports out of San Jose.
The Spartans’ offense also has issues. They scored just 21.4 points per game in 2025 (113th in FBS) and turned the ball over 27 times, the second-most in the entire FBS behind only Florida Atlantic. That turnover problem doesn’t just hurt their offensive scoring — it also feeds the opposing offense with short fields and extra possessions, which drives totals up.
Now the historical piece worth flagging. USC is 6-0 all-time against San Jose State, but the last meeting in 2023 was interesting from a betting standpoint. USC won 56-28, but they were a 30.5-point favorite and failed to cover. That’s the risk with laying nearly 40 points in preseason — even in blowout wins, USC has shown a pattern of easing up in the second half. Caleb Williams threw four touchdowns in that 2023 game, and USC still got outscored 28-14 in the second half.
That’s why the total is the cleaner play. Even if USC pulls back in the fourth quarter with a big lead, the first three quarters of a Riley offense against a bottom-25 FBS defense should push this game well past 59.5. SJSU also can’t be completely shut out — their offense will get its garbage-time scores, and if their defense continues its turnover-prone ways, USC gets extra red zone opportunities.
I looked at the side too. USC -38.5 is a defensible play given the talent gap, but 38.5 is a big number in college football and the 2023 SJSU game gives a real precedent for how a Trojans blowout can fall short of covering. The total gives me the cleaner path with fewer variables to worry about.
The Pick: San Jose State/USC Over 59.5
