NFL Football Picks
The Denver Broncos come into the Bay Area for a week 14 showdown with the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football. San Francisco is home, coming off their third loss in a row—a 43-16 road-loss to the Seahawks last Sunday. At 2-10 and almost as bad against the spread, confidence is low and for a good reason. The linesmaker has the Broncos as a -5.5 road favorite. Denver is banged up on the defensive side of the ball so they may be ripe for the upset. Football handicapper Loot Levinson has down his homework and gives out his suggested wager on the game.
The struggling Bengals losers of six of their last seven matches head to Los Angeles to take on the high flying Chargers in Week 14 NFL action. The NFL betting board lists the hosts as a large -14 point spread favorite with the total posted at 47.5 points. This has the feel of a college game to me with Cincinnati outmatched in most metrics making the two-touchdown line appear to be an underlay. Get Loot’s take on this game and see which side of the spread he is landing on.
The Jets in many ways are a carbon copy of the Titans in their approach to the game and the production they have gotten out of it. New York is ranked just ahead of Tennessee it total offense averaging a 29th-ranked 302.3 yards per game. The Jets score 20.1 points per game (26th in the NFL) and like to lead the way with a proficient running game. The problem for New York is their rushing attack sits 22nd in the league averaging just 103.6 yards per game. Is the disparity in output worth 8 points? Keith Franks has your NFL pick.
The Buffalo offense isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. Their passing game ranks 30th in the NFL and their running game ranks 17th but they’ve been doing enough lately to win back to back games. And against Miami’s 21st-ranked pass defense and 29th-ranked run defense they might just be able to extend that winning streak. What are the odds they can at least stay within the bookie’s 6 point spread?
It looks like Chase Daniel will get the start again in place of an injured Mitch Trubisky but as he showed last week against the Lions, he’s capable of leading this offense to a win. Against the Giants 18th-ranked pass defense, 26th-ranked run defense and 25th-ranked scoring defense, he should be far more than capable. Does his brief history bode well for a 5 point win to win against the spread? Rick Wise offers his prediction.
As reports continue to come in, it appears more and more like Lamar Jackson will be getting the start for the Baltimore Ravens in place of Joe Flacco who is still battling injury. Along with the potential absence of Flacco, Baltimore also has Alex Collins, Tavon Young, James Hurst, and Tim Williams all listed as “questionable” for this weeks game against Atlanta. Meanwhile the Falcons get linebacker Deon Jones back from the IR. Can the banged up Falcons cover the spread? Bob Clark offers his NFL prediction.
The glaring deficit that Arizona will have to overcome is their complete lack of offense. Heading into the week, the Cards rank dead-last in rushing yards, passing yards, points scored, third down conversions and time of possession. Getting consistent offensive movement has been nearly impossible with Arizona scoring 20-points just twice this season, topping out at 28 in one of their two wins against the Niners. They are even last in field goal makes, further hamstringing their ability to put points on the board. They do have a highly capable back in David Johnson but he is averaging just 3.2 yards and the Cards fail to average 80 rushing yards per game. Sportsbooks are giving Arizona 14 points to work with. Can they stay within 2 TDs? Ted has your NFL pick.
The Bengals are the epitome of nicked up. Cincy will be without their starting quarterback Andy Dalton who is on the IR due to a torn ligament in his thumb. Furthermore, Cincinnati’s chief offensive weapon wide-receiver and former Georgia Bulldog A.J. Green is listed as day-to-day with a toe injury and remains questionable for Sunday. Do the Bengals have enough to cash and stay within 4 points of Denver?
Tom Brady was solid after laying an egg against Tennessee and sinking to his lowest quarterback rating (29.5) and second lowest passer rating (70.6) of the season. He looked like himself again against the Jets, finishing 20-of-31 for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns, and in the process became the NFL’s career leader in total passing yards in both the regular and post seasons. Is Tommy going to stay with his winning ways and help Pats bettors cover the spread with a seven point victory?
One of the reasons that Cleveland and Houston have found success in recent weeks is the elevated play of both defenses. Houston’s defense had a rough start to the year but they have regrouped nicely holding opponents to just 16.2 points per game since week 5. For the Browns, despite the statistical concerns, the Browns have played better with each passing week specifically against the pass where they rank 4th in DVOA rankings. Despite the Defense’s trajectory the sportsbooks have the Brown as 6 point underdogs. Jay Horne looks at the match-up and shares his value pick.
The Jaguars defense, heralded as one of the best coming into the season, continues to be a major disappointment. There’s a lesson to be learned in Jacksonville’s current defensive struggles and that is that you probably shouldn’t talk trash about players you’ll be facing in the near future. Jalen Ramsey said some unflattering things about Ben Roethlisberger and Josh Allen in the offseason and they have both come back to light the Jags up. Does the defense for this 3-8 team have any pride left? Rick gives his prediction for Jags hosting the Colts.
New Orleans is simply running over everything that’s in their way. Over their 10 game winning streak, they have outscored their opponents by 161 points, and they are averaging covering spreads by 10 points per game. In a season of historically great NFL offenses, the Saints are the best of the best. They are first in points scored by 5 points and are first in points per drive by a wide margin. What can Dallas bettors expect the Boys to do to stay within 7? Keith Allen breaks down the game and offer his pick.
The narrative during the 2017 Eagles Super Bowl run was that they were the underdogs. It was them against the world and they had to overcome one hurdle after another. Of course, the Eagles rose to the challenge, overcame every obstacle that landed in their way including being home underdogs in both NFC playoff games and beating the GOAT and his infamous Coach in the big game with a backup quarterback. This year the Eagles are the hunted and in turn commonly see sportsbooks setting them as the big favorite.
Despite the Panthers recent struggles, they have a great opportunity to turn things around this week against a weak Buccaneers defense. In fact, Carolina’s offense behind quarterback Cam Newton and running back Christian McCaffrey have won 3 straight against the Buccaneers. If you stretch those trends out further, Newton has won 9 of the last 11 meetings against the Buccaneers as well. Is there strong enough data to show bookmakers got it wrong giving Carolina 3.5?
The 49ers are in rough shape. For them not to be competitive against a spiraling Tampa bunch is a testament to how bad things are going into week 13. Nick Mullens offered some early promise at quarterback, but has thrown two picks in each of his last two games and the luster is long gone. The story of this team has been injuries. Then just this past week, Rueben Foster went from a difference-maker on defense to getting cut after another transgression. Is this the point where the 49ers give up? This idea can make getting even 10 points from your sportsbook seem like not enough.
So far this season, Pittsburgh has responded well to bad situations. After winning only one of their first four games of the season, they were able to alter course dramatically, winning 6 straight and have not failed to cover the spread once in that period. The last few weeks have seen the Steelers slacking off a bit. First came a close win against Jacksonville where they were half-dead for the first three quarters of the game. Against Denver, four turnovers and a general sagging in overall energy was responsible for the defeat. Does the Pittsburgh roller coaster climb back to the win column and so by 4 points?