Quick Recap:
• Record: 9-3
• Units: +10.5
• Best Win: San Francisco Giants ML (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Houston Astros ML (-1.6u)
Joe Jensen closed May 12, 2026 with a +10.5-unit profit on a 9-3 graded card, a night where disciplined unit allocation and timely execution on the higher-confidence positions made the difference. The three losses—Houston, the Angels, and Miami—cost a combined 3.54 units, but seven 2-unit winners and two 1-unit plays delivered enough cushion to finish comfortably in the black. The issue wasn’t volume; it was where the exposure landed, and on this night, the top-weighted plays held.
Diamondbacks at Rangers
Pick: Texas Rangers ML (-138) | Result: Won | Risked: 1.38u | Net P/L: +1.00u
Final Score: Rangers 7, Diamondbacks 4
Texas bounced back from a 1-0 shutout loss the night before with a dominant performance anchored by MacKenzie Gore, who allowed just three hits over a career-high eight innings. Joc Pederson and Ezequiel Duran went deep, and Jake Burger reached base four times, going 3-for-3 with two RBI. Arizona’s Ildemaro Vargas accounted for all four of the Diamondbacks’ RBI, but the Rangers built a 7-1 lead by the end of the fifth and cruised. A clean 1-unit win to open the card.
Mariners at Astros
Pick: Houston Astros ML (+124) | Result: Lost | Risked: 1.61u | Net P/L: -1.61u
Final Score: Mariners 10, Astros 2
This was the card’s sharpest setback. Seattle extended its franchise-record win streak over Houston to nine games with a dominant offensive display. Randy Arozarena went 4-for-4 with a homer, two doubles, and three RBI, while Dominic Canzone hit his first career grand slam in the fourth to blow the game open. The Mariners plated four in the fourth and added insurance late. Houston managed just two runs and never threatened. A 2-unit position that looked reasonable on paper but was outclassed from the middle innings on. The Astros’ struggles against Seattle continue to be a real market inefficiency—against the bettor.
Giants at Dodgers
Pick: San Francisco Giants ML (+150) | Result: Won | Risked: 1.33u | Net P/L: +2.00u
Final Score: Giants 6, Dodgers 2
After beating the Dodgers 9-3 the night before, San Francisco came back and did it again. Eric Haase was the story, homering twice—including back-to-back shots with Harrison Bader in the fifth to erase a 2-1 deficit. Haase nearly went deep a third time in the seventh, but Andy Pages tracked it down at the wall. The Giants added three more in the seventh to put it away. Shohei Ohtani homered for Los Angeles, but the Dodgers managed just two runs total. A 2-unit dog that paid +150 and delivered a clean +2.00u profit—one of the night’s best results.
Angels at Guardians
Pick: Los Angeles Angels ML (+110) | Result: Lost | Risked: 0.91u | Net P/L: -0.91u
Final Score: Guardians 3, Angels 2
After backing Cleveland successfully in game one, Jensen flipped to the Angels in game two. It didn’t work. Angel Martinez homered and drove in a run, and Cleveland’s pitchers struck out 13 Angels batters while allowing just one hit through most of the game. Vaughn Grissom homered for Los Angeles, and they scratched across two runs, but the Guardians’ pitching staff was dominant. Cleveland improved to 29-4 against the Angels at Progressive Field since 2015, a brutal home split that continues to haunt road backers. A competitive 1-unit loss, but one that fit the Guardians’ historical pattern.
Nationals at Reds
Pick: Over 10 (-110) | Result: Won | Risked: 2.20u | Net P/L: +2.00u
Final Score: Nationals 10, Reds 4 (14 total runs)
Washington launched six home runs in Cincinnati, with Luis Garcia Jr. and Daylen Lile each going deep twice. James Wood added his 12th homer of the season, and Brady House also connected. The Nationals plated four in the fifth and two more in the eighth to push the total well over the 10-run mark. The over was never in doubt after the middle innings, and this 2-unit play cashed comfortably at +2.00u.
Phillies at Sox
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-146) | Result: Won | Risked: 2.92u | Net P/L: +2.00u
Final Score: Phillies 2, Red Sox 1
Kyle Schwarber homered for the fifth consecutive game, tying a Phillies record and giving him a major-league-leading 17 home runs. Zach Wheeler was brilliant, allowing one run and six hits over 7.1 innings with four strikeouts. Philadelphia scored single runs in the first and second, and Wheeler made it stand up. The win gave manager Don Mattingly his 900th career managerial victory and extended the Phillies’ winning streak to three. A 2-unit favorite that required the largest risk of the night (2.92u) but delivered a clean +2.00u return.
Rays at Jays
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML (-126) | Result: Won | Risked: 2.52u | Net P/L: +2.00u
Final Score: Rays 7, Blue Jays 6 (10 innings)
After winning 8-5 the night before, Jensen went back to Tampa Bay in game two. The Rays trailed 5-4 entering the seventh before Toronto tied it and forced extras. In the tenth, Taylor Walls singled in automatic runner Cedric Mullins, and Jonathan Aranda added a sacrifice fly to give Tampa Bay a 7-5 lead. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. drove in one in the bottom half, but the Rays held on. Ryan Vilade homered and doubled, and Jonny DeLuca went 3-for-5 with a double. Tampa Bay improved to 16-2 in its last 18 games. A 2-unit play that survived extra innings and delivered +2.00u.
Tigers at Mets
Pick: New York Mets ML (-152) | Result: Won | Risked: 1.52u | Net P/L: +1.00u
Final Score: Mets 10, Tigers 2
A.J. Ewing made an impressive major-league debut, reaching base four times (one hit, three walks) and driving in two runs. Freddy Peralta pitched six effective innings, and the Mets pulled away with three runs in the sixth and two more in both the seventh and eighth. Detroit managed just two runs and committed multiple errors in a sloppy performance. A 1-unit favorite that cruised to a +1.00u win.
Cubs at Braves
Pick: Atlanta Braves ML (-124) | Result: Won | Risked: 2.48u | Net P/L: +2.00u
Final Score: Braves 5, Cubs 2
Grant Holmes and three relievers combined on a one-hitter, with Didier Fuentes working three scoreless innings in relief to earn the win. Austin Riley and Mike Yastrzemski homered, and Dominic Smith went 4-for-4 and scored twice. Chicago’s Alex Bregman homered, and Moisés Ballesteros added an RBI groundout, but the Cubs managed just one hit total. Atlanta plated four in the fifth to break the game open. A 2-unit play that delivered a clean +2.00u profit in a pitching-dominated contest.
Royals at Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox ML (+102) | Result: Won | Risked: 0.98u | Net P/L: +1.00u
Final Score: White Sox 6, Royals 5
Chicago built a 5-2 lead with a five-run fifth inning, highlighted by Chase Meidroth’s three-run homer and Drew Romo’s solo shot. Kansas City tied it 5-5 in the sixth, but pinch-hitter Derek Hill broke the tie with an eighth-inning homer. The White Sox held on for their third straight win. A 1-unit dog that paid near even money and delivered +1.00u.
Marlins at Twins
Pick: Miami Marlins ML (-102) | Result: Lost | Risked: 1.02u | Net P/L: -1.02u
Final Score: Twins 3, Marlins 0
Bailey Ober threw a two-hit shutout, the third complete game in the majors this season. He struck out seven, walked none, and didn’t allow a hit after the fourth inning. Byron Buxton stole home, and Ryan Jeffers hit a two-run homer in the fifth to provide all the offense Minnesota needed. Miami managed just two hits and never threatened. A 1-unit loss on a play that ran into a dominant pitching performance.
Padres at Brewers
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-126) | Result: Won | Risked: 1.26u | Net P/L: +1.00u
Final Score: Brewers 6, Padres 4
Joey Ortiz homered for the first time in nearly ten months and drove in two runs, breaking a scoreless tie in the third. Milwaukee plated five in the fourth to build a 6-2 lead, and Brandon Sproat picked up his first career win with six strikeouts over 5.1 innings. San Diego’s Miguel Andujar homered and doubled, driving in two, but the Padres couldn’t overcome the early deficit. A 1-unit favorite that delivered +1.00u and extended Milwaukee’s winning streak to five.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Jensen’s side plays went 2-0 on the night—lean recommendations with no unit allocation.
Yankees at Orioles
Pick: New York Yankees ML (-164) | Result: Won
Final Score: Yankees 6, Orioles 2
New York cruised to a four-run victory in Baltimore, covering the short favorite line comfortably.
Rockies at Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-330) | Result: Won
Final Score: Pirates 3, Rockies 1
Pittsburgh held serve as a heavy home favorite, limiting Colorado to one run and cashing the steep chalk.
Missed Reads: Astros (outclassed by Seattle’s offense and continued dominance in the series)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Angels (competitive but ran into Cleveland’s pitching), Marlins (shut down by Ober’s complete-game gem)
Clean Wins: Rangers, Giants, Nationals over, Phillies, Rays, Mets, Braves, White Sox, Brewers
The graded card finished +10.5 units because the seven 2-unit plays that won—Giants, Nationals, Phillies, Rays, Braves, and two others—more than offset the three losses. The Astros setback was the only 2-unit miss, and it came in a game where Seattle’s offense was overwhelming. The Angels and Marlins losses were competitive 1-unit plays that ran into strong pitching. When the higher-confidence positions hold, a 9-3 night becomes a profitable one. This was disciplined allocation meeting favorable execution.
