Quick Recap:
• Record: 6-5
• Units: -2.3
• Best Win: Cleveland Guardians ML (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Seattle Mariners ML (-3.0u)
Joe Jensen closed May 13 with a 6-5 record across eleven graded plays, but the card finished -2.3 units—a reminder that in baseball betting, where the money lands matters more than how many games you cash. Jensen allocated his heaviest exposure to three favorites that all failed to deliver: the Mariners at -152 (risked 3.04u), the Cubs at -138 (risked 2.76u), and the Brewers at -146 (risked 2.92u). Those three losses alone cost -8.72 units. Even with five wins—four of them two-unit positions—the math never caught up. The issue wasn’t volume; it was allocation and execution on the top of the card.
Diamondbacks at Rangers
Pick: Under 8.5 (-122) | Result: Lost | Risked: 2.44u | Net P/L: -2.44u
Final Score: Rangers 6, Diamondbacks 5
Jensen opened the night with a two-unit under that never had a chance. The game sat scoreless through four innings before Texas plated three in the fifth and the offenses traded runs the rest of the way. The real damage came in the ninth: Arizona rallied for three to tie it 5-5, then Texas answered immediately with three of their own. Danny Jansen’s walk-off single off Juan Morillo capped a frantic inning that buried the under by two and a half runs. Jake Burger went 2-for-4 with a home run and four RBI for Texas, while Nolan Arenado posted two doubles and two RBI for Arizona. After backing the Rangers’ moneyline successfully the night before, this was a clean miss on the total—the pitching never controlled the game.
Mariners at Astros
Pick: Seattle Mariners ML (-152) | Result: Lost | Risked: 3.04u | Net P/L: -3.04u
Final Score: Astros 4, Mariners 3 (10 innings)
This was the heaviest loss of the night and a reversal from the prior game’s script. Seattle had crushed Houston 10-2 the day before, and Jensen pivoted back to the Mariners after losing on the Astros in that blowout. The game stayed tight throughout—Houston tied it 3-3 in the eighth, then won it in the tenth when Zach Cole singled home automatic runner Brice Matthews. Christian Walker homered and Jose Altuve drove in two for Houston, while J.P. Crawford and Luke Raley each went deep for Seattle. Bryan Abreu earned the win with a scoreless tenth. This was a competitive loss in extra innings, but at -152 and risking 3.04 units, it was the single biggest drain on the card.
Cardinals at Athletics
Pick: Athletics ML (-148) | Result: Won | Risked: 1.48u | Net P/L: +1.00u
Final Score: Athletics 6, Cardinals 2
The A’s delivered a clean win to get Jensen on the board. Nick Kurtz’s grand slam in the fifth—a ball that got over Victor Scott II’s glove in deep center—gave Oakland the lead for good and extended Kurtz’s on-base streak to 36 games. J.T. Ginn pitched six innings of one-run ball (unearned), striking out three and scattering nine hits. Kurtz finished 2-for-4 with a double, the slam, and four RBI. St. Louis managed just two runs despite Alec Burleson’s three-hit night. After losing to the Cardinals 6-4 the night before, this was a straightforward bounce-back spot that played out as expected.
Angels at Guardians
Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (-146) | Result: Won | Risked: 2.92u | Net P/L: +2.00u
Final Score: Guardians 4, Angels 2
Cleveland completed a three-game sweep and improved to an absurd 30-4 at home against the Angels since 2015. Angel Martinez’s leadoff homer got the Guardians started, and rookie Parker Messick (5-1) allowed two runs over 6 2/3 innings to earn the win. Zach Neto homered and drove in both Angels runs, but Los Angeles managed just four hits total. After losing on the Angels the day before, Jensen went back to Cleveland and collected a two-unit win. The Guardians controlled this one wire-to-wire.
Nationals at Reds
Pick: Washington Nationals ML (+134) | Result: Won | Risked: 1.49u | Net P/L: +2.00u
Final Score: Nationals 8, Reds 7 (10 innings)
This was the best value win of the night. Washington fell behind 5-0 in the first inning but clawed back with four in the second and eventually forced extras. In the tenth, Daylen Lile—playing in front of his father at Great American Ball Park—crushed a two-run homer to right-center off Tony Santillan to score automatic runner CJ Abrams. It was Lile’s third homer in two games and sixth of the season. Keibert Ruiz also went deep for Washington, and the Nationals overcame a four-RBI night from Tyler Stephenson. After winning on the over the night before, Jensen stayed with Washington as a plus-money dog and cashed a two-unit ticket in extras.
Phillies at Sox
Pick: Boston Red Sox ML (-132) | Result: Won | Risked: 2.64u | Net P/L: +2.00u
Final Score: Red Sox 3, Phillies 1
Boston bounced back from a one-run loss the night before with a clean home win. Pinch-hitter Ceddanne Rafaela broke a 1-1 tie in the sixth with a two-run homer over the Green Monster off Orion Kerkering. Sonny Gray (4-1) gave up one run in his second start back from a hamstring issue, and Trevor Story added a solo shot for the Red Sox. Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber saw his five-game home run streak end. After winning on the Phillies the day before, Jensen flipped to Boston and collected another two-unit win.
Tigers at Mets
Pick: New York Mets ML (-106) | Result: Won | Risked: 1.06u | Net P/L: +1.00u
Final Score: Mets 3, Tigers 2 (10 innings)
The Mets edged Detroit in ten innings to complete a series win. New York trailed 2-0 after the first but tied it with single runs in the second and seventh before winning it in the tenth. Carson Benge went 3-for-5 with an RBI and a stolen base, and the Mets held Riley Greene—who had three hits and two RBI—in check when it mattered. After winning on the Mets 10-2 the night before, this was a lower-scoring grind that still delivered a one-unit profit at near pick-em odds.
Cubs at Braves
Pick: Chicago Cubs ML (-138) | Result: Lost | Risked: 2.76u | Net P/L: -2.76u
Final Score: Braves 4, Cubs 1
Atlanta extended baseball’s best record to 30-13 and handed Chicago its fourth straight loss. The game was tied 1-1 into the eighth before Mike Yastrzemski’s pinch-hit RBI double broke it open, and Mauricio Dubón added a two-run homer for insurance. Shota Imanaga (4-3) took the hard-luck loss for the Cubs, who managed just one run despite a solid start. After winning on the Braves the night before, Jensen backed Chicago as the NL’s second-best team—but Atlanta’s pitching and late offense shut the door. This was a competitive game that slipped away late, but at -138 and two units risked, it was a costly miss.
Royals at Sox
Pick: Kansas City Royals ML (-112) | Result: Lost | Risked: 1.12u | Net P/L: -1.12u
Final Score: White Sox 6, Royals 5
Chicago reached .500 for the first time since March 2025 and extended its winning streak to four games. Jarred Kelenic had two hits and two RBI, and Colson Montgomery homered as part of a three-hit night. Kansas City got a two-run homer from Bobby Witt Jr. and led 3-0 after four innings, but the White Sox answered with two in the second, one in the third, two in the fifth, and one in the seventh. Tyler Davis (1-1) earned his first major league win with 1 2/3 scoreless innings. This was Kansas City’s fifth loss in six games, and while the Royals stayed competitive, they couldn’t hold the early lead. A one-unit loss at near pick-em odds.
Marlins at Twins
Pick: Miami Marlins ML (-124) | Result: Won | Risked: 2.48u | Net P/L: +2.00u
Final Score: Marlins 9, Twins 5
Miami bounced back from a shutout loss with a nine-run outburst. Xavier Edwards doubled, tripled, and scored three runs, while Liam Hicks drove in three to give him an MLB-leading 38 RBI. Owen Caissie added a two-run homer, and Max Meyer (3-0) struck out nine over 5 2/3 innings to earn the win. Byron Buxton homered twice for Minnesota, but the Twins’ pitching couldn’t contain Miami’s offense. After losing on the Marlins the night before, Jensen went back to Miami and collected a two-unit win in a game that was never in doubt after the fourth inning.
Padres at Brewers
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-146) | Result: Lost | Risked: 2.92u | Net P/L: -2.92u
Final Score: Padres 3, Brewers 1
This was the final blow to the card. Milwaukee starter Jacob Misiorowski was dominant—seven scoreless innings, ten strikeouts, zero walks, and 40 pitches at 100 mph or higher. The Brewers led 1-0 into the ninth and appeared in full control. Then Abner Uribe entered and gave up a two-out, three-run homer to Gavin Sheets that flipped the game. Fernando Tatis Jr. had two hits for San Diego, and the Padres snapped Milwaukee’s five-game winning streak with one swing. After winning on the Brewers the night before, Jensen backed them again at -146 and risked 2.92 units—only to watch the bullpen collapse in the final frame. This was a brutal variance loss that cost nearly three units.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Jensen’s side plays finished 2-2 with no units assigned—these are lean recommendations for parlay or low-conviction action.
Giants at Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-290) | Result: Won | Final Score: Dodgers 4, Giants 0
The Dodgers shut out San Francisco at home in a clean 4-0 win. Heavy chalk, but it delivered.
Yankees at Orioles
Pick: New York Yankees ML (-166) | Result: Lost | Final Score: Orioles 7, Yankees 0
Baltimore blanked the Yankees 7-0 in a lopsided result. The Bronx offense never showed up.
Rockies at Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-178) | Result: Lost | Final Score: Rockies 10, Pirates 4
Colorado exploded for ten runs and buried the Pirates. A bad spot for Pittsburgh backers.
Rays at Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays ML (-168) | Result: Won | Final Score: Blue Jays 5, Rays 3
Toronto held off Tampa Bay 5-3 to close out the side-play card on a winning note.
Missed Reads: Under 8.5 (Diamondbacks/Rangers)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Mariners ML, Cubs ML, Royals ML, Brewers ML
Clean Wins: Athletics ML, Guardians ML, Nationals ML, Red Sox ML, Mets ML, Marlins ML
The graded card produced six winners, but the math never recovered from three heavy-favorite losses that combined for -8.72 units. Seattle’s extra-inning defeat at -152, Milwaukee’s ninth-inning bullpen collapse at -146, and Chicago’s late fade at -138 erased the gains from five solid wins—four of them two-unit positions. The Mariners and Brewers losses were particularly painful: both were competitive games that flipped late, and both carried nearly three units of risk. The under in Arizona was a clean miss from the start, as the ninth inning alone produced six runs. On the positive side, the Nationals (+134) and the sweep of two-unit favorites in Cleveland, Boston, and Miami showed the handicapping had merit. But in baseball betting, allocation is everything—and when the top of the card fails, even a winning record won’t save the day.
