Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at No. 12 Arkansas Razorbacks
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville
Arkansas is a 38.5-point favorite in the market, with the total at 163.5. My play is Under 163.5.
Thirty-two of 57. That’s what Arkansas shot from the free-throw line across two exhibitions, a 56.1% clip that had John Calipari repeating himself. “Again, free-throw shooting,” he said after the Memphis game. “Free-throw shooting. Come on now.” Hold that thought, because in a game where the Hogs will live at the line, every brick is a point that never hits the total.
Everybody’s staring at the spread. Fair enough; 38.5 is a monster number for the first-ever meeting between the two schools. But the more interesting number is the total, and it leans one way for me. Pine Bluff is about as bad offensively as it gets. Bart Torvik’s preseason ratings rank the Golden Lions 362nd in adjusted offense, and KenPom has them 354th overall. They went 13-19 last year and were picked 11th of 12 in the SWAC. They didn’t play a public exhibition, so this is their first real look at anyone, and it comes in front of a building that seats 19,200.
The Hogs can carry the scoring alone; the question is whether they get help. Arkansas will score plenty. Calipari’s teams run, and he warned, “Last year we were really fast. I hate to tell you, this team may be faster.” The Razorbacks dropped 93 on Memphis. But for this to go over, Pine Bluff has to chip in 65 or more against a roster with five players 6-11 or taller, including Furman transfer Cooper Bowser, who led the SoCon in blocks two years ago and had four blocks in the exhibitions. That’s a tall order for one of the lowest-rated offenses in the country.
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The model agrees. Torvik’s preseason efficiency ratings, scaled to how fast both teams play, point to roughly 157 total points, about six and a half below the market. That’s with the pace already baked in: both teams rate as quick, at 72-74 possessions a game. The projected margin comes out around 33, which is also well short of 38.5, but I’d rather not bet against a deep, young, five-star-laden roster getting bored and still winning by 40. The Under gets me Pine Bluff’s ineptitude without needing Arkansas to take its foot off the gas.
There’s a youth factor too. Arkansas returns one player from last season’s rotation in Billy Richmond III, signed ten newcomers including eight freshmen, and per RotoWire is the youngest power-conference team in the country. Young rosters in opener mode tend to take quick shots, foul and leave points at the line. Per the team’s game notes, nine players averaged at least 17 minutes in the exhibitions, so expect a deep, choppy rotation.
The risk. Blowouts are where totals get weird. If Jordan Smith Jr. and Jeremiah Wilkinson (79 threes at Georgia last year) push the pace and the Hogs pile up transition dunks, Arkansas could top 100 on its own. Late bench minutes can also turn into a playground run where both sides trade layups. And a hot night at the line, the thing Calipari’s been begging for, would erase my favorite edge.
Projected score: Arkansas 94, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 60.
The Pick: Under 163.5
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