Drexel Dragons at No. 9 Virginia Cavaliers
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
7:30 PM ET, John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville
Virginia is a 31.5-point favorite across the market, and the total is 142.5. My play is Under 142.5.
Drexel can’t score. Drexel also doesn’t let you score. One of those things travels to Charlottesville better than the other, and it’s the second one.
Last season the Dragons finished with a top-25 defense nationally by effective field goal percentage, holding opponents to a 47.1% mark, and ranked 11th in opponent three-point percentage at 30.3%. After New Year’s, they got even stingier, climbing to fifth and seventh in those categories. Zach Spiker has produced six straight winning seasons in Philadelphia by leaning on defense, and returners Josh Reed, Clem Edomwonyin and Dillon Tingler know the system.
Offense is another story. Bart Torvik’s preseason ratings slot Drexel 319th in adjusted offense, and the Dragons managed 52 points in their October exhibition at St. John’s. They also play slowly: Torvik projects them for under 68 possessions a game, well below the Division I average of about 71. Fewer trips down the floor means fewer chances for either team to pile up points.
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Now the Cavaliers. Ryan Odom’s first year was a 30-6 masterpiece, and he brought back the core four: preseason ACC Player of the Year Thijs De Ridder, 7-foot shot-blocker Johann Grunloh, Sam Lewis and Chance Mallory. Torvik has Virginia fifth in the country, third in adjusted offense and eighth in adjusted defense. That last number is the one Under bettors should care about. Grunloh swatted 2.2 shots a game last season, and a Drexel team that already struggles to score now has to finish over a 7-footer, with 7-foot-1 freshman Favour Ibe also on the roster.
Plug both teams’ preseason efficiency and tempo numbers into a basic possession model and you land somewhere around 137 total points with a margin in the mid-20s. That’s five-plus points of cushion on the total, which is a lot for a game whose biggest question is how often Drexel can get a clean look.
The Over has a real argument, and here it is
Odom says this team is faster than last year’s. “This team can move up and down the court quickly,” he said, adding that much of it starts with Mallory. Virginia hung 96 on Richmond and 93 on Villanova in exhibitions, so the Hoos can absolutely fill it up. If they turn Drexel over and run, the Cavaliers alone could flirt with 90, and a 30-point blowout means loose, bench-heavy minutes late.
I’m betting the Dragons drag Virginia into the half-court often enough to stop that. Drexel’s whole identity is making opponents earn every shot, and Virginia’s rotation beyond the core four is still, in Odom’s words, “a work in progress.”
Projected score: Virginia 80, Drexel 55.
The Pick: Under 142.5
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